Mike White reflects on Georgia’s resilience ahead of SEC tournament (3:50)White discusses the Bulldogs’ season, highlighting their growth over each game and describes the love and camaraderie in the locker room after a win over No. 16 Alabama. (3:50)
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? Teams have roughly two weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their cases. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
Teams beyond these categories have very slim chances to make the Big Dance without winning their conference tournament.
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Florida Gators Alabama Crimson Tide Vanderbilt Commodores Arkansas Razorbacks Tennessee Volunteers Kentucky Wildcats Georgia Bulldogs
Michigan Wolverines Illinois Fighting Illini Purdue Boilermakers Michigan State Spartans Nebraska Cornhuskers Wisconsin Badgers
A three-game winning streak to open February had helped pad USC’s bubble case, but five straight losses — including to a ranked Nebraska team on Saturday — have sliced the Trojans’ at-large chances to just 14%. They have the 11th-best résumé ranking in what’s trending to be a nine-bid conference. Making matters worse, Sunday brought news that Chad Baker-Mazara, who leads the Trojans in scoring (18.6 PPG), is no longer with the program.
Arizona Wildcats Houston Cougars Iowa State Cyclones Texas Tech Red Raiders Kansas Jayhawks BYU Cougars
Virginia Tech kept its tournament hopes alive with a win over Boston College on Tuesday, its second victory in three games after previously losing four of five. The Hokies’ consensus at-large chances are still low, rising to just 23% with the victory. They do own a pair of Quadrant 1 wins and a résumé rating inside the nation’s top 50, so their case could get interesting if they can knock off Virginia in the regular-season finale.
Coming off its ugliest loss of the season — by 15 points at Dayton — Saint Louis had to hold off Duquesne on Saturday to avoid a third loss in four games. The Billikens have been a great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm, and aren’t in much danger of not making the field as an at-large team, if necessary. They are still top 30 nationally in the résumé rankings, with a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, and rank even better in the predictive ratings.
Seeking a third straight tournament bid for the first time in more than a decade, New Mexico got closer to that reality on Saturday after avenging its Jan. 17 loss to San Diego. The Lobos’ chances are still around a coin flip based on their borderline top-50 national résumé ranking, but they have more Quadrant 1 and 2 wins than the Aztecs and have now evened the head-to-head scales.
Coming off a hot stretch of six victories in eight games, the Tigers fell at Oklahoma on Tuesday — though it really didn’t dent their at-large chances. Mizzou had already cracked the top eight of SEC teams in the résumé average (and the top 40 nationally), a favorable spot with the conference projected for 10 to 11 tournament entries. If it comes down to in-conference comparisons, the Tigers do have five Quadrant 1 wins and a much better record than a team such as Auburn (20-10 vs. 15-14), albeit against a much easier schedule (64th toughest vs. fifth). The at-large forecast models continue to like the chances for Dennis Gates’ team, as it sits around 90% with one more Quadrant 1 shot left to close the regular season.
After blowing a second-half lead to Florida for its second consecutive loss earlier this week, Texas got a massive road win over bubble rival Texas A&M on Saturday. It gave the Longhorns a sixth Quadrant 1 win for the season — more than Georgia, Missouri, Texas A&M or Auburn (or even “lock” Tennessee) can boast. The consensus forecast sets their at-large chances at 81%, way up from 45% at a certain point last month. At No. 11 in the SEC résumé rankings, they are still neck and neck with Missouri, Texas A&M and Auburn (all are borderline top-40 nationally), so their tournament fate is still not assured, but past teams with similar résumés all made the tourney.
Following Saturday’s loss at Minnesota, Mick Cronin’s team picked up its most impressive win of the season Tuesday night, beating No. 9 Nebraska by 20 in Westwood. The victory was the Bruins’ fourth Quadrant 1 victory (third vs. Quadrant 1-A) of the season, placing their résumé inside the nation’s top 40 and ninth in what Bracketology projects to be a 10-bid Big Ten. They’re playing well recently, and their consensus at-large odds are at 96% in the forecast models, meaning the Bruins appear to be tourney-bound.
With Wednesday’s victory over fellow Big Ten bubble team Ohio State barely in the rearview, Iowa let Saturday’s game against Penn State slip away late as a big favorite. The Hawkeyes’ résumé still sits in the low-30s nationally — in addition to being top 25 in our average of predictive ratings — so their tournament hopes remain in relatively good shape. But the trip to State College was supposed to be the easy leg of their remaining schedule, as they close out the regular season against Michigan and Nebraska.
Recovering from back-to-back losses to Michigan State and Iowa, the Buckeyes picked up a huge win for their at-large chances on Sunday. The victory over Purdue boosted their numbers into the 80% range, making them one of the weekend’s biggest winners. Ohio State ranks inside the top 40 of the predictive rankings, though the résumé figure has consistently lagged behind that, keeping the Buckeyes from escaping the bubble for very long. Even after beating Purdue, their résumé ranking (42nd overall, 9th in Big Ten) isn’t far from the cutline both nationally and for the league. But notching their first Quadrant 1-A win of the year was big before games against Penn State and bubble rival Indiana to close the schedule.
After a run of five wins in six games, Indiana has now lost four straight — to Illinois, Purdue, Northwestern and, on Sunday, Michigan State — plunging its conditional at-large probability down to 45%. The Hoosiers’ portfolio is losing ground relative to other bubble teams — Indiana now ranks outside the top 50 in the national résumé average, still 10th in the conference — even though the team remains among the top 40 in the predictive metrics. On a day when bubble rival Ohio State defeated Purdue, IU’s loss puts its tournament future in real flux.
After regaining momentum with three straight wins in mid-February, UCF has since lost back-to-back games to Baylor and Oklahoma State — the latter of which the Knights came out hot but could not take control of the game. Still, UCF is in solid shape at 86% in the at-large model consensus. With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids effective “locks,” the conference’s bubble picture really starts with the seventh bid. And with the Knights still around the top 30 in the résumé average — no other non-“lock” from the Big 12 is even in the top 40 — they still easily should have that seventh slot.
The Bearcats’ late-season charge continued with a convincing Quadrant 1 win over BYU on Tuesday for their sixth win in seven games. They are still outside the top 50 in the national résumé average — the rest of the bubble is generally around No. 45 — so the consensus model sets their at-large chances in the mid-20% range. At this point, their case heavily relies on signature wins: Iowa State, Kansas and now BYU. But their recent hot streak sets up a big regular-season finale against fellow bubble team TCU.
The Hurricanes have been on a roll in ACC play, adding to their recent résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech and Florida State with a one-sided win over Boston College on Saturday. Their at-large chances (near 90%) and national résumé quality ranking (around top 30) are bunched up next to SMU and Clemson — the trio all fit within the top eight of the ACC with a big gap over the rest of what projects to be an eight-bid conference. A couple of tough opponents are next in SMU and Louisville, but the Canes are in good shape.
The Mustangs improved their projections over the past few weeks, but back-to-back losses at California and Stanford slowed that momentum. They have been neck and neck with Miami and Clemson, jockeying for the sixth position in what could be an eight-bid ACC. Despite the defeats, SMU’s consensus at-large chances are in the high 70% range — solid enough, if drifting some from both the Hurricanes and Tigers. All three teams are well clear of the conference’s “work to do” tier featuring Cal and Virginia Tech. The Mustangs will try to get back on track against Miami then Florida State.
Barely clinging to the bubble, the Pirates salvaged their bid (for now) by stifling Xavier with a 19-4 second-half run that helped them win for the fourth time in six games. Their at-large chances still sit a tick below 20% in the forecast composite, and they’re still stinging from the missed opportunity to add a much-needed résumé boost against UConn on Saturday. They rank outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only a couple of Quadrant 1 wins. A case will be hard to make if the Big East receives only three bids, which is the current Bracketology expectation.
The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same year Wally Szczerbiak led Miami (Ohio) to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat? Miami has been living dangerously recently, rallying to beat Western Michigan last week and then surviving a tight battle with Toledo on Tuesday to remain the sole remaining unbeaten team in Division I. The forecast models don’t quite know how to handle the RedHawks, though they rank inside the top 40 on résumé; there have been just two instances, since 1985, of the committee excluding an eligible team with fewer than four losses in a non-pandemic season; and Miami made the field as an at-large team during a recent NCAA-ran mock selection exercise. It’s true that the RedHawks are a mid-80s team in the predictive ratings (Akron actually still ranks higher in the MAC) and had just the 317th-toughest schedule in the nation. But wins matter. And they are now only one away from an undefeated regular season, at which point it’s difficult to imagine they would be excluded as an at-large selection if they were to lose in the MAC tournament.