Seth WalderMar 4, 2026, 02:00 PM ETCloseSeth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.Multiple Authors
play1:37Stephen A. a fan of the Texans landing David MontgomeryStephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky react to the Lions trading David Montgomery to the Texans.
Why did the Chiefs let go of All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie? (1:47)Pat McAfee & Co. try to decipher why the Chiefs have traded All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams. (1:47)
Stephen A. a fan of the Texans landing David MontgomeryStephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky react to the Lions trading David Montgomery to the Texans.
Follow along as Walder evaluates and grades each move, with the most recent grades at the top. Let’s start with the McDuffie deal.
Rams get: CB Trent McDuffie Chiefs get: Rams’ 2026 first-round pick (No. 29), 2026 fifth-round pick, 2026 sixth-round pick, 2027 third-round pick
Cornerback was the weakness of the Rams’ defense last season. So Les Snead did what Les Snead does — address the problem by adding a star via trade.
McDuffie, 25, allowed 1.0 yards per coverage snap last season along with a 16.9% target rate (slightly higher than average and the highest of McDuffie’s career). He comes with inside-out flexibility, having spent most of the past two seasons out wide but a substantial amount of time in 2023 at nickel.
You can understand why the Rams are making this deal. They have a 38-year-old quarterback in Matthew Stafford coming off an MVP season and don’t want to waste their current championship window. They saw the opportunity to add a star in the prime of his career to fill a major need and took it. Obviously, they are better now with McDuffie on the team. And there is no shutdown corner available in free agency.
But the cost is substantial. The addition of the other picks to the late first-rounder move the value up to a mid first-rounder at minimum (and there’s a good argument they gave up more than that), depending on the relative valuation of those picks.
The surplus value going back to Kansas City is large. Draft picks are never a guarantee, but when teams hit on them they end up with players on undervalued contracts with four (or five) years of team control.
I am more sympathetic to the acquiring team than I usually, though, given the closing-window argument and the lack of an obvious alternative. But I would not have made this deal if I was running the Rams.
The extra draft capital will let the team get younger and add players while keeping costs low. And if the Chiefs truly believe in their ability to keep replenishing at corner, then that makes a deal like this even more rational.
Texans get: RB David Montgomery Lions get: G Juice Scruggs, 2026 fourth-round draft pick, 2027 seventh-round pick
Stephen A. a fan of the Texans landing David Montgomery
Stephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky react to the Lions trading David Montgomery to the Texans.
Montgomery’s contract is reasonable: It’ll cost Houston $6 million in cash this year (and $9 million nonguaranteed next year) if left untouched. But that does not mean this was a smart acquisition. An aging (29 years old in June), early-down back whose prior team had been phasing him out is not worth spending real resources on. It surprises me that Detroit was able to lure a four-seven swap here since the Texans could have found comparable expected production for far less.
One starting offensive lineman down, four more to go for the Browns. In acquiring Howard, an offensive tackle who has occasionally kicked inside to guard in his seven NFL seasons, Cleveland starts the massive rebuild of its offensive line. But was it worth it? I have a hard time seeing how.
With six offensive line free agents, the Browns are going to look significantly different in the trenches in 2026, and they’re right to jump on this right away. There’s a good chance the Browns will have a young, developing player at quarterback — be it Shedeur Sanders or someone else — and it’s critical to keep that player upright.
Howard’s exact role is unknown due to his flexibility and how the Browns’ address their other holes upfront, but right tackle seems like the safest bet since it’s where he has most frequently played.
Howard ranked in the 24th percentile in pass block win rate at tackle and the 31st percentile in run block win rate at tackle last season. He was also below average in both in 2024. That hasn’t always been the case — Howard ranked in the top 10 overall in pass block win rate at tackle in 2021 and 2022. But we’re several seasons removed from that, and he scored poorly in run blocking in each of those seasons.
So the Browns are likely getting a below-average starter. And he isn’t cheap. Howard is slated to make $17.5 million in 2026 (the final year of his deal) and is now signing a two-year, $45 million extension, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
The Browns sat at less than $1 million under the 2026 cap prior to this deal, per OverTheCap.com, though their cap obligations lighten quite a bit in 2027. But is this where they want to spend their resources, dealing a fifth-round pick to pay what might be an over-market deal for a below-average starter? That’s not how I’d want to kick off the offseason.
Howard played both right tackle and left guard for the Texans, who have plenty of open spots along the offensive line, with both Ed Ingram and Trent Brown set to be free agents. They’ll need to add offensive line help at some point and must set aside money to pay edge rusher Will Anderson Jr — and probably Stroud, too. So getting a fifth-round pick to not pay Howard seems like good business.
For all their faults, the Jets came out of last year’s trade deadline with two of the very best deals in that period. While hardly on the same scale, they kicked off the 2026 trade season with another shrewd move in swapping out Johnson for Sweat in a one-for-one swap.
The last of the Jets’ three 2022 first-round picks, Johnson put together one decent sack season in 2023, with 7.5 sacks en route to a Pro Bowl nod. That came while playing for current Titans head coach Robert Saleh, which I assume is a critical factor in why this deal was made.
But Johnson managed only 5.5 sacks over his other three seasons in New York, though he played just three games in 2024 due to an Achilles injury. Advanced pass-rushing metrics have not been kind to Johnson in his four-year career. His career pass rush win rate is only 8.4% (8.9% last season), while the average for a starting edge in that span is 15.6%.
Sweat, a 2024 second-round pick, has been a solid starting nose tackle for Tennessee. He should help the Jets’ run defense and provide some pass rush from the nose. While his 6.5% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle is below average for the position, it’s not bad considering where he lines up. He’ll join a Jets interior group that includes Harrison Phillips and Jowon Briggs.
Johnson is playing on his fifth-year option and will cost Tennessee $13.4 million, per OverTheCap. By contrast, Sweat has two years left on his rookie deal and will cost the Jets just $1.6 and $2.1 million in each of those years, respectively. Sweat is also younger and, in my view, has a better chance to be a plus contributor than Johnson. That makes this deal well worth it for New York, especially considering the Jets will get a player with another year of team control for less money.
NFL free agency begins March 9 with the legal negotiating window, but the action has already started. The Jets and Titans made the first big move of the offseason last week, with New York sending edge rusher Jermaine Johnson to Tennessee for defensive tackle T’Vondre Sweat. Two trades followed Monday, with the Texans sending offensive tackle Tytus Howard to the Browns for a fifth-round pick and acquiring running back David Montgomery from the Lions for guard Juice Scruggs and two draft picks. The Rams jumped into the fray Wednesday, sending four draft picks to the Chiefs for star cornerback Trent McDuffie.
ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder is grading the biggest signings and trades of the offseason, putting each deal into perspective for teams and players. To determine each grade, Walder is evaluating moves based on multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary cap implications, compensation, player value/age, and the context of a team’s short- and long-term outlooks. How large is the effect of this decision, and how sure are we it’s a good or bad choice? How does this affect a team’s chance to win the Super Bowl, this season or in the future?
By contrast, while McDuffie is currently a value for 2026 at $13.6 million, my assumption is that the Rams will extend him at something akin to a market rate for a player among the top cornerbacks. In that case, they are giving up a package that includes a first-round pick for the right to pay McDuffie. This format of trade is always hard to justify for the acquiring team given that fact. And a trade like this for a cornerback is particularly scary given how wild the swings at that position can be from season to season.
For the Chiefs, this continues a pattern of letting corners walk out the door under the assumption that they’ll be able to draft and develop players who can perform under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. The history here — most notably L’Jarius Sneed’s lack of success in Tennessee and the Chiefs’ ability to be fine without the departed corners — is another reason for the Rams to be wary. Any Chiefs cornerback probably comes with a drop-off risk once they leave Spagnuolo. We’ll see how far they want to push that strategy with impending free agent Jaylen Watson — will they let him walk, too?
At some point this offseason, the Texans needed to add a running back to team up with second-year man Woody Marks. They opted to do that early by acquiring Montgomery. Houston’s running game was abysmal in 2025, ranking 31st in EPA per designed carry. Their running back play wasn’t ideal, but the biggest culprit of that poor performance was an offensive line that ranked 32nd in run block win rate. Though Marks averaged only 3.6 yards per carry, he still recorded 31 rush yards over expected, another sign that the offensive line was the problem.