Texas Longhorns vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: Game Highlights (1:19)Texas Longhorns vs. Arkansas Razorbacks: Game Highlights (1:19)
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? With less than two weeks until Selection Sunday, we’re tracking how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
Teams beyond these categories have very slim chances to make the Big Dance without winning their conference tournament.
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Florida Gators Alabama Crimson Tide Vanderbilt Commodores Arkansas Razorbacks Tennessee Volunteers Kentucky Wildcats Georgia Bulldogs
Michigan Wolverines Illinois Fighting Illini Purdue Boilermakers Michigan State Spartans Nebraska Cornhuskers Wisconsin Badgers
A three-game winning streak to open February had helped pad USC’s bubble case, but five straight losses — including to a ranked Nebraska team on Saturday — have sliced the Trojans’ at-large chances to just 14%. They have the 11th-best résumé ranking in what’s trending to be a nine-bid conference. Making matters worse, Sunday brought news that Chad Baker-Mazara, who leads the Trojans in scoring (18.6 PPG), is no longer with the program.
Arizona Wildcats Houston Cougars Iowa State Cyclones Texas Tech Red Raiders Kansas Jayhawks BYU Cougars
The Golden Bears got back to winning against Georgia Tech on Wednesday, prevailing by 11 for their fourth victory in five games. It improved their at-large chances, but not by enough to pull to within striking distance of SMU despite the Mustangs’ own loss. The Bears currently sit outside the top 50 nationally in the résumé ranking — borderline bubble territory — and have four Quadrant 1 wins. They have a chance to add one more in the regular-season finale at Wake Forest.
Virginia Tech kept its tournament hopes alive with a win over Boston College on Tuesday, its second victory in three games after previously losing four of five. The Hokies’ consensus at-large chances are still low, rising to just 23% with the victory. They do own a pair of Quadrant 1 wins and a résumé rating inside the nation’s top 50, so their case could get interesting if they can knock off Virginia in the regular-season finale.
Seeking a third straight tournament bid for the first time in more than a decade, New Mexico got closer to that reality on Saturday after avenging its Jan. 17 loss to San Diego. The Lobos’ chances are still around a coin flip based on their borderline top-50 national résumé ranking, but they have more Quadrant 1 and 2 wins than the Aztecs and have now evened the head-to-head scales.
Coming off a hot stretch of six victories in eight games, the Tigers fell at Oklahoma on Tuesday — though it really didn’t dent their at-large chances. Mizzou had already cracked the top eight of SEC teams in the résumé average (and the top 40 nationally), a favorable spot with the conference projected for 10 to 11 tournament entries. If it comes down to in-conference comparisons, the Tigers do have five Quadrant 1 wins and a much better record than a team such as Auburn (20-10 vs. 15-14), albeit against a much easier schedule (64th toughest vs. fifth). The at-large forecast models continue to like the chances for Dennis Gates’ team, as it sits around 90% with one more Quadrant 1 shot left to close the regular season.
After adding a key road win over bubble rival Texas A&M on Saturday, Texas’ momentum was slowed with a lopsided loss at Arkansas on Wednesday. The Longhorns have seven Quadrant 1 wins on the season — more than Georgia, Missouri, Texas A&M or Auburn (or even Tennessee) — so the consensus forecast still sets their at-large chances at 77%, way up from 45% at a certain point last month. And at No. 9 in the overall SEC résumé rankings, they are still in a solid position; teams with similar résumés to Texas have made the tournament in the past, per advanced analytics site Bart Torvik.
Following Saturday’s loss at Minnesota, Mick Cronin’s team picked up its most impressive win of the season Tuesday night, beating No. 9 Nebraska by 20 in Westwood. The victory was the Bruins’ fourth Quadrant 1 victory (third vs. Quadrant 1-A) of the season, placing their résumé inside the nation’s top 40 and ninth in what Bracketology projects to be a 10-bid Big Ten. They’re playing well recently, and their consensus at-large odds are at 96% in the forecast models, meaning the Bruins appear to be tourney-bound.
With Wednesday’s victory over fellow Big Ten bubble team Ohio State barely in the rearview, Iowa let Saturday’s game against Penn State slip away late as a big favorite. The Hawkeyes’ résumé still sits in the low-30s nationally — in addition to being top 25 in our average of predictive ratings — so their tournament hopes remain in relatively good shape. But the trip to State College was supposed to be the easy leg of their remaining schedule, as they close out the regular season against Michigan and Nebraska.
You know things are going right for the Buckeyes when they win back-to-back games — something they haven’t done since late January, sweating out the bubble with at-large chances hovering around a coin flip over that stretch. Their convincing wins over Purdue and Penn State boosted their numbers into the mid-80% range, further solidifying a résumé that ranks inside the top 40 of the national rankings (eighth in Big Ten). This is as far above the cutline as they have been in a while. They’ll look to keep the momentum rolling against bubble rival Indiana to close the regular season with what would be their first three-game winning streak since November.
After regaining momentum with three straight wins in mid-February, UCF has since lost back-to-back games to Baylor and Oklahoma State — the latter of which the Knights came out hot but could not take control of the game. Still, UCF is in solid shape at 86% in the at-large model consensus. With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids effective “locks,” the conference’s bubble picture really starts with the seventh bid. And with the Knights still around the top 30 in the résumé average — no other non-“lock” from the Big 12 is even in the top 40 — they still easily should have that seventh slot.
The Bearcats’ late-season charge continued with a convincing Quadrant 1 win over BYU on Tuesday for their sixth win in seven games. They are still outside the top 50 in the national résumé average — the rest of the bubble is generally around No. 45 — so the consensus model sets their at-large chances in the mid-20% range. At this point, their case heavily relies on signature wins: Iowa State, Kansas and now BYU. But their recent hot streak sets up a big regular-season finale against fellow bubble team TCU.
The Hurricanes have been on a roll in ACC play, adding to their recent résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech and others with another big one against SMU on Wednesday, knocking the Mustangs down in the ACC bubble pecking order (see below). Miami’s at-large chances (91%) and national résumé quality ranking (inside top 30) are now well on the right side of the bubble picture within the ACC. Louisville is no slouch to close the regular season against, but the Canes are in great shape.
Barely clinging to the bubble, the Pirates salvaged their bid (for now) by stifling Xavier with a 19-4 second-half run that helped them win for the fourth time in six games. Their at-large chances still sit a tick below 20% in the forecast composite, and they’re still stinging from the missed opportunity to add a much-needed résumé boost against UConn on Saturday. They rank outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only a couple of Quadrant 1 wins. A case will be hard to make if the Big East receives only three bids, which is the current Bracketology expectation.
The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same year Wally Szczerbiak led Miami (Ohio) to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat? Miami has been living dangerously recently, rallying to beat Western Michigan last week and then surviving a tight battle with Toledo on Tuesday to remain the sole remaining unbeaten team in Division I. The forecast models don’t quite know how to handle the RedHawks, though they rank inside the top 40 on résumé; there have been just two instances, since 1985, of the committee excluding an eligible team with fewer than four losses in a non-pandemic season; and Miami made the field as an at-large team during a recent NCAA-ran mock selection exercise. It’s true that the RedHawks are a mid-80s team in the predictive ratings (Akron actually still ranks higher in the MAC) and had just the 317th-toughest schedule in the nation. But wins matter. And they are now only one away from an undefeated regular season, at which point it’s difficult to imagine they would be excluded as an at-large selection if they were to lose in the MAC tournament.
VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago, and the forecast models (which sit around a 30% consensus at-large chance) remain less than bullish on that streak ending this season. That’s in part because the Rams are 1-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents, including a recent collapse at Saint Louis that hurt their at-large case. They are still right in the middle of bubble territory in overall résumé (mid-40s nationally), though, and they just keep winning — they’ve now won 12 of 13 after holding off George Mason on Tuesday. They also could add a second Quadrant 1 win over Dayton on Friday. But it remains to be seen if the A-10 will get a second bid (which has happened in three of five years).
Aside from a win over conference leader Utah State by 17 last month, the Aztecs are sliding out of the bubble picture with losses in four of five games. The latest: Tuesday night’s defeat at Boise State, which dropped their consensus at-large chances to just 16%. Already borderline top 50 nationally in the résumé ranking, they are on the wrong side of the bubble right now. The Mountain West hasn’t sent fewer than three teams to the tournament in five seasons — and although there’s enough of a gap in at-large chances between SDSU and the next-best teams on the list, the chances of the Aztecs sneaking in as the league’s third representative look increasingly unlikely.