Miami (Ohio) survives in OT on Ohio miss to improve to 31-0 (0:37)Ohio is off the mark at the end of overtime, and Miami (Ohio) holds on to improve to 31-0 on the season. (0:37)
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? With roughly a week until Selection Sunday, we’re tracking how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
Teams beyond these categories have very slim chances to make the Big Dance without winning their conference tournament.
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Florida Gators Alabama Crimson Tide Arkansas Razorbacks Vanderbilt Commodores Tennessee Volunteers Georgia Bulldogs Kentucky Wildcats
Michigan Wolverines Illinois Fighting Illini Purdue Boilermakers Michigan State Spartans Nebraska Cornhuskers Wisconsin Badgers
Arizona Wildcats Houston Cougars Iowa State Cyclones Texas Tech Red Raiders Kansas Jayhawks BYU Cougars
Virginia Tech kept its tournament hopes alive with a win over Boston College on Tuesday, its second victory in three games after previously losing four of five. The Hokies’ consensus at-large chances are still low, rising to just 23% with the victory. They do own a pair of Quadrant 1 wins and a résumé rating inside the nation’s top 50, so their case could get interesting if they can knock off Virginia in the regular-season finale.
The Golden Bears got back to winning against Georgia Tech on Wednesday, prevailing by 11 for their fourth victory in five games. It improved their at-large chances, but not by enough to pull to within striking distance of SMU despite the Mustangs’ own loss. The Bears currently sit outside the top 50 nationally in the résumé ranking — borderline bubble territory — and have four Quadrant 1 wins. They have a chance to add one more in the regular-season finale at Wake Forest.
Coming off a hot stretch of six victories in eight games, the Tigers fell at Oklahoma on Tuesday — though it really didn’t dent their at-large chances. Mizzou had already cracked the top eight of SEC teams in the résumé average (and the top 40 nationally), a favorable spot with the conference projected for 10 to 11 tournament entries. If it comes down to in-conference comparisons, the Tigers do have five Quadrant 1 wins and a much better record than a team such as Auburn (20-10 vs. 15-14), albeit against a much easier schedule (64th toughest vs. fifth). The at-large forecast models continue to like the chances for Dennis Gates’ team, as it sits above 80% with one more Quadrant 1 shot left to close the regular season.
After adding a key road win over bubble rival Texas A&M on Saturday, Texas’ momentum was slowed with a lopsided loss at Arkansas on Wednesday. The Longhorns have seven Quadrant 1 wins on the season — more than Georgia, Missouri, Texas A&M or Auburn (or even Tennessee) — so the consensus forecast still sets their at-large chances at 77%, way up from 45% at a certain point last month. And at No. 9 in the overall SEC résumé rankings, they are still in a solid position; teams with similar résumés to Texas have made the tournament in the past, per advanced analytics site Bart Torvik.
Following Saturday’s loss at Minnesota, Mick Cronin’s team picked up its most impressive win of the season Tuesday night, beating No. 9 Nebraska by 20 in Westwood. The victory was the Bruins’ fourth Quadrant 1 victory (third vs. Quadrant 1-A) of the season, placing their résumé inside the nation’s top 40 and ninth in what Bracketology projects to be a 10-bid Big Ten. They’re playing well recently, and their consensus at-large odds are at 96% in the forecast models, meaning the Bruins appear to be tourney-bound.
After falling in a tight game to Michigan on Thursday, Iowa has now lost five of its past seven games with the Big Ten tourney approaching. But since three of those losses were to quadrant 1A opponents, the Hawkeyes aren’t in too much danger. Their résumé still sits in the mid-30s nationally — in addition to being top 25 in our average of predictive ratings — and they have a consensus 93% at-large probability. While grabbing the win over Michigan would have potentially elevated them to “lock” status, there aren’t many scenarios under which Iowa would somehow be left out of the bracket at this point.
You know things are going right for the Buckeyes when they win back-to-back games — something they haven’t done since late January, sweating out the bubble with at-large chances hovering around a coin flip over that stretch. Their convincing wins over Purdue and Penn State boosted their numbers to 87%, further solidifying a résumé that ranks inside the top 40 of the national rankings (eighth in Big Ten). This is as far above the cutline as they have been in a while. They’ll look to keep the momentum rolling against bubble rival Indiana to close the regular season with what would be their first three-game winning streak since November.
A third straight loss — and sixth in nine games — for UCF, by 15 points at West Virginia in Friday’s regular season finale, has left the Knights’ tourney fate much more in doubt than it seemed not long ago. Once upon a time, they peaked as high as 96% in the at-large model consensus, but now that number is 76% — barely in “Should Be In” territory. With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids effective “locks,” the conference’s bubble picture really starts with the seventh bid, and UCF still clings to that spot with a No. 34 national ranking in the résumé average. But Cincinnati (No. 52) and TCU (No. 37) have zoomed up the ranks recently, making UCF’s grip on one of the final Big 12 tourney spots no sure thing anymore.
The Bearcats’ late-season charge continued with a convincing Quadrant 1 win over BYU on Tuesday for their sixth win in seven games. They are still outside the top 50 in the national résumé average — the rest of the bubble is generally around No. 45 — so the consensus model sets their at-large chances at 30%. At this point, their case heavily relies on signature wins: Iowa State, Kansas and now BYU. But their recent hot streak sets up a big regular-season finale against fellow bubble team TCU.
The Hurricanes have been on a roll in ACC play, adding to their recent résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech and others with another big one against SMU on Wednesday, knocking the Mustangs down in the ACC bubble pecking order (see below). Miami’s at-large chances (93%) and national résumé quality ranking (inside top 30) are now well on the right side of the bubble picture within the ACC. Louisville is no slouch to close the regular season against, but the Canes are in great shape.
The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same year Wally Szczerbiak led Miami (Ohio) to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat? Miami has been living dangerously recently, with a string of close wins. But in overtime Friday night, they survived a visit to Ohio U. to finish the regular season without a loss. It’s true that the RedHawks are outside the top 90 in the predictive ratings and faced just the 303rd-hardest schedule in the nation, making their potential at-large case historically unique. But winning matters! As the sole remaining unbeaten in Division I, it’s difficult to imagine they would be excluded as an at-large selection if they fall in the MAC tournament.
VCU hasn’t made back-to-back NCAA tournaments since the Will Wade era nearly a decade ago, but the forecast models now give them a 60% consensus at-large chance after they won at Dayton on Friday night. The Rams are 2-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents, including two losses to A-10 rival Saint Louis. But they are still right in the middle of bubble territory in overall résumé (low-40s nationally), and they just keep winning — they’ve now won 13 of 14, the sole slip-up coming against the Billikens in a game they led by double-digits in the second half. It still remains to be seen if the A-10 will get a second bid, but that has happened in three of five years and VCU is now trending to join Saint Louis in the NCAA field.
As the Aztecs seemingly slid out of the bubble picture with losses in four of five games, they recovered some to outlast UNLV in the regular-season finale on Friday. Despite the win, their consensus at-large chances are just 17%, and their No. 54 ranking nationally on the résumé list would put SDSU on the wrong side of the bubble right now. On the positive side, the Mountain West hasn’t sent fewer than three teams to the tournament in five seasons, and New Mexico’s résumé is little better than SDSU’s. The Aztecs are one of the teams most vulnerable to a bid thief during conference tournaments.
Heading into Wednesday’s contest versus Colorado State, New Mexico had been asserting itself to be the committee’s second choice coming out of the Mountain West as an at-large (if necessary). But a loss hosting the Rams complicated the MWC bubble picture more than ever. The Lobos’ updated chances (18% conditional at-large odds) are still higher than San Diego State’s (16%), based on New Mexico’s borderline top-50 national résumé ranking, but neither team is in good shape ahead of the conference tournament. The Lobos would figure to still own the edge, as they have more Quadrant 1/2 wins than the Aztecs, and recently evened the head-to-head scales. But a strong closing regular-season statement against Utah State is suddenly high on New Mexico’s to-do list.
Bubble Watch’s latest newcomer, the Bulls have now won 11 of their past 12 games — including eight straight — after outlasting Memphis on the road Thursday. Their consensus at-large chance remains in the teens, so it’s not clear they’ve done enough compared with the other teams on the bubble. The Bulls are 22-8 overall with a couple of Quadrant 1 wins, and they rank 51st in the national résumé average. They are undeniably on a hot streak, and they’re the BPI’s favorite to win the American tourney (with a 42.8% chance), but Joe Lunardi has the conference down to send only one team to the Big Dance at the moment.