Gavalyugov hits ‘night-night’ celebration after clutch 3 for Santa Clara (0:34)Sash Gavalyugov connects on a clutch 3-pointer to send Santa Clara past Saint Mary’s and into the WCC title game. (0:34)
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? With roughly a week until Selection Sunday, we’re tracking how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
Teams beyond these categories have very slim chances to make the Big Dance without winning their conference tournament.
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Florida Gators Alabama Crimson Tide Vanderbilt Commodores Arkansas Razorbacks Tennessee Volunteers Georgia Bulldogs Kentucky Wildcats
Michigan Wolverines Illinois Fighting Illini Purdue Boilermakers Michigan State Spartans Nebraska Cornhuskers Wisconsin Badgers
Indiana’s downward spiral from once-promising tournament odds to big-time bubble trouble continued with Saturday’s loss to Ohio State. Its conditional at-large probability has plummeted down to around 40%, and its résumé now ranks outside the top 50 nationally. If the Big Ten gets 10 NCAA tournament bids, the Hoosiers would deserve the last of those nods over USC — but a nine-bid conference will leave the Hoosiers out in the cold.
Arizona Wildcats Houston Cougars Iowa State Cyclones Texas Tech Red Raiders Kansas Jayhawks BYU Cougars
The Horned Frogs’ case for the Big 12’s final at-large bid was perhaps solidified Saturday with their eighth win in nine games, including over Cincinnati in what might have amounted to an early NCAA tournament play-in. Their consensus at-large chances have now risen to nearly 80%, up from just 10% a few weeks ago, thanks to downing Texas Tech earlier in the week and notching their fifth Quadrant 1 win. It would be surprising if TCU doesn’t hear its name on Selection Sunday.
The Hurricanes were on a roll in ACC play, picking up résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech and SMU, among others — but lost a nail-biter hosting Louisville on Saturday to close out the regular season. It really shouldn’t sting that much, however: Miami’s at-large chances (90%) and national résumé quality ranking (inside top 30) are now well on the right side of the bubble picture within the ACC. The Canes are still in fine shape to make the tournament.
Much like Oklahoma and the SEC, the Cardinal have jumped into the chaos of the ACC’s bubble after winning their fourth straight game (and sixth in eight) over NC State on Saturday. They have five Quadrant 1 wins, three in Quadrant 1-A, leading SMU, Virginia Tech and Cal on both fronts. They’re outside the national top 50 in résumé ranking, well below both those of the Mustangs and Hokies, but the model consensus now gives them a 28% at-large chance on the eve of the ACC tournament.
Margins can be razor-thin on the bubble at this time of year, as illustrated by the former “work to do” Aggies. Their odds would have dropped into the 60% range with a loss in triple-overtime at LSU Saturday but instead rose to 80% — and got them promoted up — with the marathon win. Bucky McMillan’s squad is still not exactly a “lock,” but six Quadrant 1 victories and ranking top 10 among SEC teams in our résumé rating (low-40s nationally) give A&M a leg up on other SEC bubble hopefuls heading into the SEC tournament.
The Tigers lost their regular-season finale at Alabama to fall to 2-8 in their past 10 games. The loss drops their consensus chances into the 20% range — and that’s probably very much on the generous side. That said, they aren’t without a case for the committee, headlined by four Quadrant 1 wins against the nation’s fifth-most difficult schedule, per the BPI. And, they are still mid-40s in the national résumé ranking average. Ordinarily, that would put a team directly on the bubble — but with 15 losses, it’s historically almost impossible to make the tournament as an at-large team. Auburn’s last chance to make the field of 68 likely comes down to going on an unlikely heater through the SEC tournament.
The Sooners are a last-minute Bubble Watch entry after knocking off Texas on the road Saturday in overtime. It was the fourth consecutive victory for Porter Moser’s squad — sixth in eight, a stretch that includes four of this season’s five Quadrant 1 wins. The forecast models are dubious OU can make a real case for an at large (the consensus odds sit at just 12%), but given the chaos around the SEC bubble, and the fact that the conference projects to send 11 teams according to Bracketology, this team is suddenly on the radar.
A few weeks after their at-large odds dropped into the 60% range, the Bruins won four of their final five regular-season contests — including against Nebraska and USC back-to-back. The latter win was also their fifth Quadrant 1 victory of the season, putting their résumé around the nation’s top 30 rankings and seventh in what Bracketology projects to be a 10-bid Big Ten. Mick Cronin’s team is playing well recently, and its consensus at-large odds are now at 97% in the forecast models, meaning the Bruins appear to be tourney-bound.
The Buckeyes picked a great time for their second three-game winning streak of the season — first since late November — beating Purdue, Penn State and Indiana in a crucial bubble contest to close out the regular season. They’d been sweating out the bubble for months, with at-large chances hovering around a coin flip, but they’re now at 91%, further solidifying a résumé that’s top 40 in the national rankings (and no worse than ninth in the Big Ten). While not a lock yet, they’ll enter the conference tournament with some momentum.
Iowa went cold over the final eight regular-season contests, losing six, including in overtime Sunday at Nebraska. Since four of those defeats were to Quadrant 1-A opponents, however, the Hawkeyes are holding steady here. Their résumé still sits in the mid-30s nationally — no worse than eighth best in the Big Ten — and they have a consensus at-large probability in the 90s. Despite this recent slump, there aren’t too many conference tournament scenarios in which they would somehow be left out of the bracket.
A third straight loss — and sixth in nine games — for UCF, by 15 points at West Virginia in Friday’s regular-season finale, has left the Knights’ tourney fate much more in doubt than it seemed not long ago. Once upon a time, they peaked as high as 96% in the at-large model consensus, but now that number is 76% — barely in “Should Be In” territory. With so many of the Big 12’s expected bids effective “locks,” the conference’s bubble picture really starts with the seventh bid, and UCF still clings to that spot with a No. 34 national ranking in the résumé average. But Cincinnati (No. 52) and TCU (No. 37) have zoomed up the ranks recently, making UCF’s grip on one of the final Big 12 tourney spots no sure thing anymore.
The Bearcats’ late-season charge — six wins, some quite impressive, in seven games entering Saturday — was nice while it lasted. But the regular-season finale loss to TCU might have been the final nail in their at-large coffin. They’re still outside the top 50 in the national résumé average, compared to the rest of the bubble, which is generally around No. 45. They also now have 14 losses, despite playing the nation’s 62nd-toughest schedule. At this point, their case heavily relies on signature wins: vs. Iowa State, at Kansas, vs. BYU. But their at-large chances in the consensus model have fallen to just above 10% as they look ahead to the Big 12 tourney.
With six losses in seven games, including blowing an 89% win probability against Stanford on Saturday, NC State’s at-large odds are down to just 80% from their peak of 98% and therefore back in “should be in” territory. The Wolfpack still rank mid-30s nationally in the résumé ratings and no worse than seventh on the résumé list in the ACC, with a big gap to the next-best team, SMU. But for all of their performance in the predictive ratings, where they’re a top-35 team, they now have 12 losses and aren’t making things easy for themselves.
Virginia Tech kept its tournament hopes alive with wins over Wake Forest and Boston College, but its résumé could have used an upset over UVA in the regular-season finale Saturday. That didn’t happen, despite the Hokies pulling even with 11 minutes to play, meaning their consensus at-large chances are still just 17% on the eve of the ACC tourney. They do own a pair of Quadrant 1-A wins and a résumé rating just inside the top 50, so their case isn’t completely without merits — depending on what happens in the next week. But right now, they’re on the outside looking in.
The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same year Wally Szczerbiak led Miami (Ohio) to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat? Miami has been living dangerously recently, with a string of close wins. But in overtime Friday night, it survived a visit to Ohio University to finish the regular season without a loss. It’s true that the RedHawks are outside the top 90 in the predictive ratings and faced just the 303rd-hardest schedule in the nation, making their potential at-large case historically unique. But winning matters! As the sole remaining unbeaten in Division I, it’s difficult to imagine they would be excluded as an at-large selection if they fall in the MAC tournament.
The past couple of weeks have been a roller coaster for the Billikens — they lost to Rhode Island and Dayton, needed a comeback to defeat VCU and narrowly beat Duquesne, then on Saturday lost the regular-season finale to George Mason in a 29-point rout. A great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm, their conditional probability was above 90% in our consensus forecast at one point, but that figure falls to just 76% on the eve of the Atlantic 10 tournament. They’re still borderline top 30 nationally in the résumé rankings, with a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, so they have a good chance to make the field as an at-large team if necessary. (BPI projections favor them to win the conference tournament.) But they’re a bit less certain than earlier in the year.