Eric KarabellMar 10, 2026, 07:04 AM ETCloseEric Karabell is a senior writer for fantasy baseball, football and basketball at ESPN. Eric is a charter member of FSWA Hall of Fame and author of “The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments”.Follow on XMultiple Authors
Selecting Diaz and Perez in the middle rounds are responsible investments, despite those low walk rates. … Baltimore Orioles star Adley Rutschman, however, hasn’t been a star since 2023. While his plate discipline remains solid, his batted-ball metrics continue to regress. Fade Rutschman in ESPN formats. … Twelve catchers outscored Philadelphia Phillies starter J.T. Realmuto in roto and points formats. Things aren’t likely to improve at age 35, so fade him in single-catcher formats.
Reds RHP Chase Burns oozes 200-K potential, but he seems unlikely to approach enough innings to get there in 2026. His lofty ADP disagrees. … The hype machine is fairer for young Toronto Blue Jays RHP Trey Yesavage, postseason star, but still too aggressive for me. Avoid fellow Jay RHP Shane Bieber, too. When they’re hurting in March (not recovering players such as Zack Wheeler, Gerrit Cole), read the room. … Anyone past the top 200, eh, the risk is so low it might be fruitless to avoid.
Relief pitcher: Astros LHP Josh Hader nearly led this entire column. Shoulder woes cost him the end of 2025, and biceps inflammation has him well behind schedule now. Something is clearly amiss. We need more clarity, especially with a top-100 ADP. … I will note, in general, I have trouble investing a top-100 pick on any reliever, regardless of format, including shallow ESPN ones. There are too many top hitters and potential aces out there that early.
Though Crow-Armstrong remains popular in roto/categories leagues, he’s far less so in points formats (which are ESPN’s standard) where the walks and strikeouts are critical. Sure, he remains safely in the top 100, but at a significant discount. There is clear risk in investing any early draft pick or high amount of auction funds in his direction in either format, thus he is an obvious candidate to lead ESPN’s latest “Do not draft” list. Now, this doesn’t mean you should officially and eagerly ignore Crow-Armstrong this season, but committing a top-50 draft pick to him and assuming that he is a building-block mainstay (like the first half of 2025) is aggressive.
That’s what the “Do not draft” list is, really, as we analyze perceived preseason fantasy value versus the likely actuality of pending statistics reinforcing said value. For these purposes, we use average live draft position (ADP) as a guide in judging a player’s value, on ESPN and on other sites such as NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship). Even in roto/categories leagues, which is the focus of this column, there is performance risk with Crow-Armstrong as he continues to aggressively swing at nearly everything, with little assurance he adjusts his strategy. Perhaps he achieves 30/30 again, but there also is a statistical downside.
There are other fantasy relevant hitters with significantly low walk rates, including Atlanta Braves outfielder Michael Harris II, Houston Astros catcher Yainer Diaz and Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez. Those players are risks, too, though they should not cost a top-100 pick in ESPN leagues, whether roto or points based. Crow-Armstrong costs a top-50 pick. Be careful here. We often see second-half struggles as a more reflective barometer of future performance, as hitters aim to adjust. Crow-Armstrong is only 24, has an affable personality, is a wonderful defender and an exciting baserunner with power. Still, there is risk in fantasy baseball. Be careful out there.
First base: The top 10 at this position feel relatively safe. It’s worth highlighting that Los Angeles Dodgers star Freddie Freeman is no longer a top-50 option in ADP. That is wise. Freeman made this list last season, and it was the correct call. But he might become underrated if he falls too far. … I would not necessarily avoid Josh Naylor of the Mariners in the top 100, but he isn’t likely to steal another 30 bases again, as he is among the slower runners in the sport. Naylor retains most of his value, but he has been an inconsistent slugger. I’ve faded Naylor at his current aggressive ADP.
Second base: Astros legend Jose Altuve turns 36 in June. He hurts the team defensively, which might affect his playing time. Plus, his OPS has fallen in each of the past three seasons. Altuve stole only 10 bases in 16 chances. The power and durability remain, but perhaps not for much longer, making him a risky top-100 choice. … Red Sox 2B/OF Ceddanne Rafaela, another bottom-10 walker at 4.8%, doesn’t offer the power/speed combo of Crow-Armstrong, but he goes roughly 100 spots later. Also, Rafaela’s .587 second-half OPS was second-worst in MLB. Do not expect a high batting average, ever. … Braves starter Ozzie Albies is no longer a top-100 pick, but he has largely disappointed in three out of four seasons. There remain better mid-draft choices.
Shortstop: It’s OK to covet Dodgers star Mookie Betts after the fifth round, but his fantasy value is hardly the same as it was even two seasons ago. Like Freeman, the market corrected some here, so don’t try to live in the past. … Everyone seems to expect a big drop in production for Arizona Diamondbacks starter Geraldo Perdomo. I tend to agree he is unlikely to hit for great power. His performance was volume-driven in 2025, but he should remain a top-100 option. … Texas Rangers star Corey Seager is an annual staple on this list, for good reason. He has appeared in 125 games in only one of the past five seasons. He’s a solid producer when he plays, but his lack of durability is a problem. … Speaking of repeated injuries, kudos to Red Sox star Trevor Story for playing in 157 games last season. Does anyone expect a repeat? This alone makes him a risky top-50 selection.
Speedy Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Chandler Simpson might swipe at least 75 bases, if he plays enough. Still, while he hit .295 as a rookie, he offers no power or defensive competence. We must avoid him in points formats, and the Rays might follow suit, jeopardizing him in roto formats. … Washington Nationals starter Dylan Crews — the No. 2 pick in the 2023 amateur draft — will play and he will run, but the rest might hurt. Crews going in the middle rounds is probably OK, but he must prove he can hit MLB pitching. … New York Yankees youngster Jasson Dominguez might not even make the team. Avoid. … It is true that Dodgers starters Teoscar Hernandez and Andy Pages had two of the worst walk rates among qualifiers, but it didn’t hurt them in that deep lineup. I’m OK with their aggressiveness. … Los Angeles Angels Hall of Famer Mike Trout going in the middle rounds is OK. It just should have happened years ago.
Starting pitcher: Invest early in Dodgers ace RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Fade the other Dodgers. Hey, only one Dodger eclipsed 113 innings pitched last season. They have depth and take no chances with injuries, because only October matters. LHP Blake Snell might be awesome in his 60 innings again, but it is just 60 innings. Neither Snell nor Tyler Glasnow are reasonable top-100 options. … Reds RHP Hunter Greene can’t strike out 200 hitters with an injured elbow. This doesn’t look like the year to invest. (Ed. note: Eric was right.) … The hype machine is sky high for Mets rookie Nolan McLean. He shouldn’t struggle, but his top-100 ADP feels a bit inflated.
Eric KarabellMar 10, 2026, 07:04 AM ETCloseEric Karabell is a senior writer for fantasy baseball, football and basketball at ESPN. Eric is a charter member of FSWA Hall of Fame and author of “The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments”.Follow on XMultiple Authors
CloseEric Karabell is a senior writer for fantasy baseball, football and basketball at ESPN. Eric is a charter member of FSWA Hall of Fame and author of “The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments”.Follow on X