Northwestern Wildcats vs. Indiana Hoosiers: Game Highlights (1:17)Northwestern Wildcats vs. Indiana Hoosiers: Game Highlights (1:17)
With Selection Sunday rapidly approaching, many fans are wondering: Which teams will make the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament?
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Florida Gators Alabama Crimson Tide Vanderbilt Commodores Arkansas Razorbacks Tennessee Volunteers Georgia Bulldogs Kentucky Wildcats
Michigan Wolverines Illinois Fighting Illini Purdue Boilermakers Michigan State Spartans Nebraska Cornhuskers Wisconsin Badgers
Arizona Wildcats Houston Cougars Iowa State Cyclones Texas Tech Red Raiders Kansas Jayhawks BYU Cougars
The Horned Frogs’ case was further solidified with a second-round comeback victory over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 tournament — their ninth win in 10 games. Their consensus at-large chances have now risen to 85%, up from just 10% a few weeks ago, and they are nearly up to the top 30 in the national résumé rankings. At this point, TCU looks safe heading into Selection Sunday.
The Hurricanes were on a roll in ACC play, picking up résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State, Virginia Tech and SMU, among others — but lost a nail-biter hosting Louisville on Saturday to close out the regular season. It really shouldn’t sting that much, however: Miami’s at-large chances (90%) and national résumé quality ranking (inside top 30) are now well on the right side of the bubble picture within the ACC. The Canes are still in fine shape to make the tournament.
Margins can be razor-thin on the bubble at this time of year, as illustrated by the former “work to do” Aggies. Their odds would have dropped into the 60% range with a loss in triple-overtime at LSU Saturday but instead rose to 80% — and got them promoted up — with the marathon win. Bucky McMillan’s squad is still not exactly a “lock,” but six Quadrant 1 victories and ranking top 10 among SEC teams in our résumé rating (low-40s nationally) give A&M a leg up on other SEC bubble hopefuls heading into the SEC tournament.
The Tigers lost eight of their final 10 regular season games to cast serious doubt on their tournament future. But they began the long climb back on Wednesday with a convincing victory over Mississippi State in the SEC first round. The Tigers aren’t without a case for the committee, headlined by four Quadrant 1 wins (two vs. Q1-A) against the nation’s fifth-most difficult schedule, per the BPI. And, they are still mid-40s in the national résumé ranking average. Ordinarily, that would put a team directly on the bubble — but with 15 losses, it’s historically almost impossible to make the tournament as an at-large team. Auburn’s consensus at-large odds are exactly 50% as it looks ahead to Round 2 against Tennessee.
The Sooners played themselves onto the bubble with four straight victories to end the regular season, then kept things rolling Wednesday by dominating South Carolina to advance in the SEC tournament. They have now racked up seven wins in nine games, a stretch that includes four of their five Quadrant 1 wins. Their chances in the forecast models are now up to 30%, and even though they still rank in the 50s nationally on résumé, the chaos around the SEC bubble has left the door open for the Sooners for now.
A few weeks after their at-large odds dropped into the 60% range, the Bruins won four of their final five regular-season contests — including against Nebraska and USC back-to-back. The latter win was also their fifth Quadrant 1 victory of the season, putting their résumé around the nation’s top 30 rankings and seventh in what Bracketology projects to be a 10-bid Big Ten. Mick Cronin’s team is playing well recently, and its consensus at-large odds are now at 97% in the forecast models, meaning the Bruins appear to be tourney-bound.
Iowa had gone cold over the final eight regular-season contests, losing six, but it didn’t hurt their odds too much because four of those losses were to Quadrant 1-A opponents. The Hawkeyes got back into the W column in the Big Ten tourney on Wednesday, beating Maryland to advance to Round 3. Their résumé still sits in the mid-30s nationally — no worse than eighth best in the Big Ten — and they have a consensus at-large probability in the 90s. Despite their recent slump, there weren’t too many conference-tournament scenarios in which they would somehow be left out of the bracket, and one of those just got taken off the board.
The Buckeyes picked a great time for their second three-game winning streak of the season — first since late November — beating Purdue, Penn State and Indiana in a crucial bubble contest to close out the regular season. They’d been sweating out the bubble for months, with at-large chances hovering around a coin flip, but they’re now at 91%, further solidifying a résumé that’s top 40 in the national rankings (and no worse than ninth in the Big Ten). While not a lock yet, they’ll enter the conference tournament with some momentum.
Indiana’s late-season slump might have reached its nadir in the second round of the Big Ten tournament Wednesday, as the Hoosiers fell by double digits to Northwestern for their sixth loss in seven games. The defeat plunged their at-large probability to 21%, with 14 losses and a résumé ranked around No. 50 nationally. If the Big Ten gets 10 NCAA tournament bids, the Hoosiers could be in play for the last of those nods over USC (which also lost Wednesday) — but only nine bids for the conference would leave the Hoosiers out in the cold.
UCF never makes things easy for itself. After two separate 3-game losing streaks late in the regular season saw their at-large odds whittled down from more than 95% to barely “Should Be In” territory, the Knights were also down to a 4% win probability in Wednesday’s critical Big 12 tourney showdown with Cincinnati. But Johnny Dawkins’ team kept fighting, and ended up winning in overtime to solidify their odds once more. With the Big 12 now looking like an eight-bid conference, there might be room for both UCF and TCU in the NCAA bracket, even though a comparison between the two (if necessary) would be a dead heat. At 84% in the models ahead of a quarterfinal date with Arizona, UCF’s victory over Cincy went a long way toward punching their tournament ticket.
In desperate need of a win after six losses in seven games, NC State rallied from an early deficit to beat Pitt and make the ACC quarterfinals. Their at-large odds are now 85% — still down from their peak of 98% — though not unfavorable when you consider that ranks seventh in an ACC trending toward eight NCAA entries. The Wolfpack still rank mid-30s nationally in the résumé ratings with a meaningful gap to the next best team, SMU. Next up, they’ll try to get revenge against a Virginia team that beat them by nearly 30 a few weeks ago.
Much like Oklahoma and the SEC, the Cardinal jumped into the chaos of the ACC’s bubble, after winning their fourth straight game (and sixth in eight) over NC State on Saturday. But losing a wild ACC tourney opener to Pitt on Tuesday means their fate is in the hands of the selection committee now. They have five Quadrant 1 wins, three in Quadrant 1-A, leading SMU, Virginia Tech and Cal on both fronts. But they’re also outside the national top 50 in résumé ranking, below both those of the Mustangs and Hokies. The model consensus now gives them a mere 11% at-large chance, based on uncertainty over who the committee might favor (and what the rest of the ACC bubble does).
The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same year Wally Szczerbiak led Miami (Ohio) to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat? Miami has been living dangerously recently, with a string of close wins. But in overtime Friday night, it survived a visit to Ohio University to finish the regular season without a loss. It’s true that the RedHawks are outside the top 90 in the predictive ratings and faced just the 303rd-hardest schedule in the nation, making their potential at-large case historically unique. But winning matters! As the sole remaining unbeaten in Division I, it’s difficult to imagine they would be excluded as an at-large selection if they fall in the MAC tournament.
The past couple of weeks have been a roller coaster for the Billikens — they lost to Rhode Island and Dayton, needed a comeback to defeat VCU and narrowly beat Duquesne, then on Saturday lost the regular-season finale to George Mason in a 29-point rout. A great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm, their conditional probability was above 90% in our consensus forecast at one point, but that figure falls to just 76% on the eve of the Atlantic 10 tournament. They’re still borderline top 30 nationally in the résumé rankings, with a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, so they have a good chance to make the field as an at-large team if necessary. (BPI projections favor them to win the conference tournament.) But they’re a bit less certain than earlier in the year.
With a chance to officially clinch a spot in the NCAA field, the Broncos hung with Gonzaga for most of Tuesday’s WCC championship, but ultimately fell short. Now Santa Clara has to wait for Selection Sunday. Their fate will revolve around whether the West Coast Conference gets three bids, which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons, or just two. But the Broncos may have done their part for the extra spot by beating Saint Mary’s on Monday. The Broncos’ model chances are currently 84% for an at-large, and they picked a great time to record their first Quadrant 1-A win of the year against SMC. With a borderline top-40 résumé ranking nationally, they can go toe-to-toe with the rest of the bubble anyway, and their trip to the conference title game might have put them over the top. But it’s in the committee’s hands now.