UCF Knights vs. Arizona Wildcats: Game Highlights (1:16)UCF Knights vs. Arizona Wildcats: Game Highlights (1:16)
With Selection Sunday rapidly approaching, many fans are wondering: Which teams will make the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament?
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Florida Gators Alabama Crimson Tide Vanderbilt Commodores Arkansas Razorbacks Tennessee Volunteers Georgia Bulldogs Kentucky Wildcats
Michigan Wolverines Illinois Fighting Illini Purdue Boilermakers Michigan State Spartans Nebraska Cornhuskers Wisconsin Badgers
Arizona Wildcats Houston Cougars Iowa State Cyclones Kansas Jayhawks Texas Tech Red Raiders BYU Cougars
The Horned Frogs’ case was further solidified with a second-round comeback victory over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 tournament — their ninth win in 10 games. Their consensus at-large chances have now risen to 91%, up from just 10% a few weeks ago, and they are nearly up to the top 30 in the national résumé rankings. At this point, TCU looks safe heading into Selection Sunday.
UCF’s emotional roller coaster will continue through Selection Sunday. After seeing their at-large odds whittled down from “Lock” to barely “Should Be In” territory with a couple losing streaks late in the regular season, the Knights’ Big 12 tournament run came to an end Thursday against Arizona. Now they’ll wait to see whether they’ve done enough for the committee to award the Big 12 an eighth bid, though the models believe that is more likely than not, giving them an 87% at-large chance.
After losing a nailbiter to Louisville to close out the regular season, the Hurricanes got their revenge in the ACC quarterfinals, knocking the Cardinals out of the conference tournament while adding to their own résumé in the process. Miami’s at-large chances are now 97% and its résumé quality is inside the nation’s top 30, so it’s safe to say the Canes are headed for the NCAA tournament.
Barely clinging to the bubble, the Pirates are still here after advancing to the Big East semifinals with a win against Creighton on Thursday. Their at-large chances remain just 13% in the forecast composite, and they rank outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average with only a single Quadrant 1 win, so a case will be hard to make if the Big East receives only three bids — the current Bracketology expectation.
Margins can be razor-thin on the bubble at this time of year, as illustrated by the former “work to do” Aggies. Their odds would have dropped into the 60% range with a loss in triple overtime at LSU on Saturday but instead rose to 80% — and got them promoted — with the marathon win. Bucky McMillan’s squad is still not exactly a “lock,” but six Quadrant 1 victories and ranking top 10 among SEC teams in our résumé rating (low-40s nationally) give A&M a leg up on other SEC bubble hopefuls heading into the SEC tournament.
Coming off a hot stretch of six victories in eight games, the Tigers lost back-to-back contests against Oklahoma and Arkansas to close the SEC regular season — then again to open the SEC tourney against Kentucky. At 77% in the at-large chances, they’re less safe than they seemed a few games ago, and they entered Thursday ranked 45th in the résumé average (and 10th in the SEC), right on the bubble. The biggest threat to their chances is Oklahoma using the SEC tournament to improve its résumé and bump the Tigers — but their standing remains solid as long as the conference earns 10 bids.
The Sooners played themselves onto the bubble with four straight victories to end the regular season, then kept things rolling Wednesday by dominating South Carolina to advance in the SEC tournament. They have now racked up seven wins in nine games, a stretch that includes four of their five Quadrant 1 wins. Their chances in the forecast models are now up to 24%, and even though they still rank in the 50s nationally on résumé, the chaos around the SEC bubble has left the door open for the Sooners for now.
Auburn’s season may have ended in a way that neatly encapsulates its late-season collapse, having lost nine of its last 12 games, including Thursday’s SEC tournament loss to Tennessee. The Tigers led the Vols for almost the entirety of their second-round matchup, peaking with an 87% win probability only to yield a 31-11 closing run en route to the loss. They are now at the mercy of the committee, and while they aren’t without a case — headlined by four Quadrant 1 wins (two vs. Q1A) against the nation’s fifth-most difficult schedule, and a mid-40s ranking in the national résumé average — the Tigers also have 16 losses, which would be a historic total for an at-large team. Their consensus at-large chances are 42%, but that feels like an overstatement considering the MAC could get an extra bid with Miami (Ohio) also losing Thursday.
A few weeks after their at-large odds dropped into the 60% range, the Bruins won four of their final five regular-season contests — including against Nebraska and USC back-to-back. The latter win was also their fifth Quadrant 1 victory of the season, putting their résumé around the nation’s top 30 rankings and seventh in what Bracketology projects to be a 10-bid Big Ten. Mick Cronin’s team is playing well recently, and its consensus at-large odds are now at 97% in the forecast models, meaning the Bruins appear to be tourney-bound.
The Buckeyes picked a great time for their second four-game winning streak of the season — their first since late November. They beat Purdue, Penn State and Indiana to close out the regular season, then knocked off Iowa in the Big Ten third round. They’d been sweating out the bubble for months, with at-large chances mostly hovering around a coin flip, but they’re now at 95%, further solidifying a résumé that’s approaching the top 30 in the national rankings (and no worse than eighth in the Big Ten). Though not quite a lock yet, they’re a pretty certain tourney team now.
Iowa went cold down the stretch, losing seven of its final 10 contests including Thursday’s defeat against Ohio State in the Big Ten tourney, but that hasn’t hurt its at-large odds very much because the majority of those losses were to Quadrant 1 opponents. The Hawkeyes’ résumé still sits in the top 40 nationally — no worse than ninth best in what appears to be a nine-bid Big Ten — and they still have a consensus at-large probability in the mid-90s. Despite their recent slump, Iowa has probably done enough to warrant a bid.
Indiana’s late-season slump might have reached its nadir in the second round of the Big Ten tournament Wednesday, as the Hoosiers fell by double digits to Northwestern for their sixth loss in seven games. The defeat plunged their at-large probability to 13%, with 14 losses and a résumé ranked around No. 50 nationally. If the Big Ten gets 10 NCAA tournament bids, the Hoosiers would be in play for the last of those nods over USC (which also lost Wednesday and has a 1% at-large chance) — but the conference getting only nine bids would leave the Hoosiers out in the cold.
In desperate need of a win after six losses in seven games, NC State rallied from an early deficit to beat Pitt and make the ACC quarterfinals, but that was as far as the Wolfpack got. Virginia handled them Thursday to knock them out of the conference tourney. Their at-large odds are now 90% — down from a peak of 98% but not at all unfavorable when you consider that ranks seventh in an ACC trending toward eight NCAA entries. The Wolfpack still rank in the mid-30s nationally in our résumé ratings with a meaningful gap to the next-best team, SMU. Though their late-season swoon was far from ideal, they’ll probably get into the Big Dance anyway.
Much like Oklahoma and the SEC, the Cardinal jumped into the chaos of the ACC’s bubble after winning their fourth straight game (and sixth in eight) over NC State on Saturday. But losing a wild ACC tourney opener to Pitt on Tuesday means their fate is in the hands of the selection committee now. They have five Quadrant 1 wins, three in Quadrant 1A, leading SMU, Virginia Tech and Cal on both fronts. But they’re also outside the national top 50 in résumé ranking, below those of the Mustangs and Hokies. The model consensus now gives them a mere 15% at-large chance, based on uncertainty over whom the committee might favor (and what the rest of the ACC bubble does).
The past couple of weeks have been a roller coaster for the Billikens — they lost to Rhode Island and Dayton, needed a comeback to defeat VCU and narrowly beat Duquesne, then on Saturday lost the regular-season finale to George Mason in a 29-point rout. A great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm, their conditional probability was above 90% in our consensus forecast at one point, but that figure falls to just 76% on the eve of the Atlantic 10 tournament. They’re still borderline top 30 nationally in the résumé rankings, with a pair of Quadrant 1 wins, so they have a good chance to make the field as an at-large team if necessary. (BPI projections favor them to win the conference tournament.) But they’re a bit less certain than earlier in the year.
With a chance to officially clinch a spot in the NCAA field, the Broncos hung with Gonzaga for most of Tuesday’s WCC championship, but ultimately fell short. Now Santa Clara has to wait for Selection Sunday. Their fate will revolve around whether the West Coast Conference gets three bids, which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons, or just two. But the Broncos may have done their part for the extra spot by beating Saint Mary’s on Monday. The Broncos’ model chances are currently 84% for an at-large, and they picked a great time to record their first Quadrant 1A win of the year against SMC. With a borderline top-40 résumé ranking nationally, they can go toe-to-toe with the rest of the bubble anyway, and their trip to the conference title game might have put them over the top. But it’s in the committee’s hands now.