Making sense of Crosby trade, Ravens' ensuing Hendrickson signing

play2:29Orlovsky stunned Ravens backed out of Maxx Crosby dealThe “Get Up” crew reacts to the Ravens’ decision to back out of the trade agreement for Maxx Crosby due to medical concerns.

play1:20’Wild … unprecedented’: Schefter reports on Ravens nixing Crosby tradeAdam Schefter reacts to the news of the Ravens backing out of their trade for Maxx Crosby due to medical concerns.

play1:49Stephen A. gives props to Ravens for signing Trey HendricksonStephen A. Smith weighs in on the Ravens signing Trey Hendrickson after backing out of trading for Maxx Crosby.

Orlovsky stunned Ravens backed out of Maxx Crosby dealThe “Get Up” crew reacts to the Ravens’ decision to back out of the trade agreement for Maxx Crosby due to medical concerns.

The “Get Up” crew reacts to the Ravens’ decision to back out of the trade agreement for Maxx Crosby due to medical concerns.

‘Wild … unprecedented’: Schefter reports on Ravens nixing Crosby tradeAdam Schefter reacts to the news of the Ravens backing out of their trade for Maxx Crosby due to medical concerns.

Adam Schefter reacts to the news of the Ravens backing out of their trade for Maxx Crosby due to medical concerns.

Stephen A. gives props to Ravens for signing Trey HendricksonStephen A. Smith weighs in on the Ravens signing Trey Hendrickson after backing out of trading for Maxx Crosby.

Stephen A. Smith weighs in on the Ravens signing Trey Hendrickson after backing out of trading for Maxx Crosby.

Did the Ravens just get cold feet and change their mind?

Which teams would be interested in trading for Crosby?

What happens next for the teams and players most directly affected by the rescinded trade?

Wednesday morning, the Ravens followed up by making the move that will fuel a million conspiracy theories. Having opted out of the Crosby deal, they signed the best remaining pass rusher on the market, Trey Hendrickson, to a four-year, $120 million deal. It was the obvious decision for the Ravens given the circumstances, but there will be no shortage of people outside and even inside the league who wonder whether the Ravens simply got cold feet.

While acknowledging that the Raiders are not exactly the most careful and social media-savvy organization in football, it’s very easy to focus on the wording in that brief message. They could have noted that Crosby failed a physical and that the trade has been rescinded, or described how the trade had fallen through and how happy they were to have Crosby back. “Backed out” is saying a lot. It’s quite clear that the Raiders feel as if they’ve been done dirty.

What happens next? Well, let’s get there in a moment. I want to break down what has happened from both sides, and then we can get to what it means for the Ravens, Raiders, Crosby and the rest of the NFL. The only thing more interesting than the original Crosby trade might be undoing one of the biggest swaps of the past decade four days later. Let’s try to make some sense of this and what comes next.

Jump to: What happened? Did the Ravens get cold feet? Will Crosby still get moved? Where could he fit? Who else is impacted?

In this case, the Ravens were obviously facing a very important, franchise-altering decision. They were both trading two first-round picks for Crosby and essentially committing to paying the guy who was supposed to be their new star edge rusher nearly $94 million over the next three seasons. Crosby was coming off a season that ended because of an injury, with the 28-year-old suffering a meniscus injury early in the year and playing through it before eventually undergoing season-ending surgery.

The timing of the trade only made things worse. Both sides wanted to have a Crosby deal done before the weekend and the start of the legal negotiating period Monday. The Raiders were in position to negotiate with the widest range of teams before free agents started flying off the board and teams filled their needs on the edge. The Ravens needed clarity on what their budget would look like with or without Crosby as a number of their standout players hit free agency.

Though it doesn’t typically happen in high-profile trades, we do see signings affected and even wiped away by failed physicals. These teams have both had a notable signing fall by the wayside over the past 15 years. In 2017, the Ravens signed Washington wideout Ryan Grant to a four-year, $29 million deal with $14.5 million guaranteed, but a physical discovered that a late-season ankle injury was more concerning than the team expected. Baltimore backed out of the deal.

And the third reason is the Ravens essentially sat out the first few days of free agency as they waited for the Crosby deal to be finalized, with their only signing so far being guard John Simpson. They’ve now landed Hendrickson, which we’ll get to in a moment, but the idea that the Ravens were going to string the Raiders along until they decided to sign Hendrickson at the last second doesn’t really hold up under much scrutiny.

Orlovsky stunned Ravens backed out of Maxx Crosby deal

Ultimately, nobody outside of Baltimore’s building can ever really know for sure whether the Ravens were strictly reacting to Crosby’s physical, simply changed their mind or some combination of the two. I would argue that the preponderance of the evidence points toward the former. Maybe they wouldn’t have been quite as willing to move on from the Crosby deal if Hendrickson hadn’t been available.

Having signed Hendrickson, though, there are going to be plenty of skeptics who believe that the Ravens finessed the Raiders here, including the vast majority of people in the Raiders facility. I can give the evidence for why I don’t think that’s the case, but feelings might matter more than evidence here. The Raiders are going to be furious, and I’m not sure you can really blame them given the circumstances.

The Raiders needed the picks more than they needed Crosby, given how far they are from contending. Crosby was going to finally get to play for a winner and a perennial contender. This could have been a win-win trade. It could still be one with a different team.

It’s fair to say that the Ravens, for many reasons, are out of the running. (I’m not sure Mark Davis or GM John Spytek will pick up a call from a 410 area code for the next decade.) The Raiders are left with 30 other potential trade partners, though, and there’s still plenty of time to negotiate a Crosby deal. Let’s consider a few scenarios for how that could play out.

At that point, though, I have to believe that the Raiders would simply call things off. The organization seemed ready to move Crosby, but this wasn’t a situation in which the Raiders were going to be willing to simply take the best available offer if what was on the table wasn’t any better than a Day 2 pick. It was always going to take a splashy offer for the Raiders to move their most popular and successful player.

It would be awkward bringing Crosby back, but if the Raiders can’t land a first-round pick, they would have to add their veteran edge rusher back into the fold for 2026. They could always explore a trade at the deadline or after the season if Crosby returns to his usual form and plays well next season.

‘Wild … unprecedented’: Schefter reports on Ravens nixing Crosby trade

Who’s left? There’s no obvious front-runner, but then again, the Ravens also weren’t exactly the favorites to land Crosby a week ago. In no particular order …

The Jaguars were reportedly in Crosby discussions earlier this offseason, only to come up short of Baltimore’s offer. They don’t have a first-round pick to offer the Raiders in 2026 after sending that to the Browns in the deal to move up for Travis Hunter, and that probably cost them in relation to other offers and opportunities.

The other Jaguars player who would undoubtedly interest the Raiders is wideout Brian Thomas Jr., who would give presumptive No. 1 pick Fernando Mendoza a young No. 1 receiver. ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported Tuesday that the Jaguars aren’t interested in trading Thomas, but the Crosby news could change things. If the Raiders prefer picks, though, the Jaguars aren’t going to be a great fit.

The Lions have been quiet in free agency, with former Panthers center Cade Mays as their only meaningful addition so far. Al-Quadin Muhammad and Marcus Davenport are both free agents, leaving a significant hole across from Aidan Hutchinson on the edge. The Lions have the 17th pick in 2026, which would be in the same ballpark as the selection the Ravens were sending as part of their deal. And I don’t need to tell you how Crosby and Dan Campbell would fit together.

The Lions, however, might have bigger concerns elsewhere. Taylor Decker was granted his release, and Detroit is rebuilding an offensive line that wasn’t up to its standards last season. The 2023 draft class just became eligible for extensions, which could mean significant raises for Jahmyr Gibbs, Jack Campbell, Sam LaPorta and Brian Branch as early as this offseason. I love the fit on paper, but Crosby might be too expensive for Detroit.

The Bills made a big splash by acquiring DJ Moore from the Bears, a deal that added $24.5 million to their bottom line in 2026 and 2027. They still need to rebuild on defense, where Joey Bosa and AJ Epenesa are free agents on the edge. Buffalo is already committed to Greg Rousseau at one starting spot, but Crosby could step in on the other side, giving Buffalo the star pass rusher it has craved for years.

The Bears freed up all of that cash as part of the Moore trade. When I wrote my mock trade column last month, I had the Bears sending Moore to the Raiders as part of a deal for Crosby, using the savings at wide receiver to help add all the money owed to Crosby over the next three years. I thought the Bears would need to send only one first-rounder alongside Moore to get that deal done, but in light of what the Ravens offered, that seems low.

Is a receiver who turns 29 before the year really the best return for Crosby given how far the Raiders are from contention? Probably not. If they get to June and haven’t been able to get a Crosby deal over the line, though, a swap involving Brown (and some draft capital) heading to the Raiders for him will be the rumor of the summer.

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