With Selection Sunday dawning, many fans are wondering: Which teams will make the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament?
Here’s an overview of the teams waiting to hear their names called as one of the 37 at-large bids when the selection show starts at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday:
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Florida Gators Vanderbilt Commodores Alabama Crimson Tide Tennessee Volunteers Kentucky Wildcats Georgia Bulldogs
After winning four of its last six games, Texas A&M was blown out by Oklahoma in the second round of the SEC tournament Thursday. Bucky McMillan’s squad is not exactly a “lock,” but five Quadrant 1 victories combined with a top 10 ranking among SEC teams in our résumé rating (low 40s nationally) still gives the Aggies an 77% at-large chance. They still have an edge over other SEC bubble hopefuls as they await Selection Sunday.
Michigan Wolverines Purdue Boilermakers Illinois Fighting Illini Michigan State Spartans Nebraska Cornhuskers Wisconsin Badgers UCLA Bruins
The Horned Frogs were as hot as any team heading into the Big 12 tournament with nine wins in 10 games, but that momentum came to a halt when Kansas outlasted them in the quarterfinals Thursday. Their consensus at-large chances are still holding steady at 92%, up from just 10% a few weeks ago, and they are still mid-30s in the national résumé rankings. At this point, TCU continues to look safe heading into Selection Sunday.
UCF’s emotional roller coaster will continue through Selection Sunday. After seeing their at-large odds whittled down from “Lock” to barely “Should Be In” territory with a couple of losing streaks late in the regular season, the Knights’ Big 12 tournament run came to an end Thursday against Arizona. Now they’ll wait to see whether they’ve done enough for the committee to award the Big 12 an eighth bid, though the models believe that is more likely than not, giving them an 89% at-large chance.
The Pirates’ run in the Big East tournament came to a close Friday after Seton Hall’s loss to St. John’s as heavy underdogs. The forecast composite still gives the Pirates’ at-large chances of 13%, with uncertainty across the bubble. Still, they rank outside the top 50 nationally in résumé average, with only a single Quadrant 1 win in a conference set to receive only three bids under the latest Bracketology projection. Seton Hall’s bubble has likely burst.
Coming off a hot stretch of six victories in eight games, the Tigers lost back-to-back contests against Oklahoma and Arkansas to close the SEC regular season — then again to open the SEC tourney against Kentucky. At 75% in the at-large chances, they’re less safe than they seemed a few games ago, and they currently rank 45th in the résumé average (and 10th in the SEC), right on the bubble. The biggest threat to their chances is Oklahoma using the SEC tournament to improve its résumé and bump the Tigers — but their standing remains solid as long as the conference earns 10 bids.
Auburn’s season might have ended in a way that neatly encapsulates its late-season collapse, having lost nine of its last 12 games, including Thursday’s SEC tournament loss to Tennessee. The Tigers led the Vols for almost the entirety of their second-round matchup, peaking with an 87% win probability only to yield a 31-11 closing run en route to the loss. They are now at the mercy of the committee, and while they aren’t without a case — headlined by four Quadrant 1 wins (two vs. Q1A) against the nation’s fifth-most difficult schedule, and a mid-40s ranking in the national résumé average — the Tigers also have 16 losses, which would be a historic total for an at-large team. Their consensus at-large chances are 41%, but that feels like an overstatement considering the MAC could get an extra bid with Miami (Ohio) also losing Thursday.
The Sooners played themselves onto the bubble at the end of the regular season, and kept some of that momentum rolling in the SEC tournament, with wins over South Carolina and Texas A&M. They even gave Arkansas a fight in Friday’s quarterfinal before ultimately falling short. Three of their four Quadrant 1 wins came during that late-season run of eight wins in 10 games, and they nearly cracked the top 50 in the national résumé ranking in the process. But will it be enough? The forecast models are skeptical; the Sooners’ chances there have dropped low enough (29%) that they will certainly be sweating the SEC’s bloated bubble on Selection Sunday.
The Buckeyes’ impressive late-season four-game winning streak, which included wins over Purdue, Indiana and Iowa, met its end against mighty Michigan in the Big Ten quarterfinals, though Ohio State kept it close. Before that winning streak, the Buckeyes had been sweating out the bubble for months, with at-large chances mostly hovering around a coin flip throughout. Those percentages are now 96%, with a résumé that’s around the top 35 in the national rankings (and no worse than ninth in the Big Ten). Though they are not quite technically a lock, their outlook is very optimistic as they await Selection Sunday.
Iowa went cold down the stretch, losing seven of its final 10 contests, including Thursday’s defeat against Ohio State in the Big Ten tourney, but that hasn’t hurt the Hawkeyes’ at-large odds much because the majority of those losses were to Quadrant 1 opponents. The Hawkeyes’ résumé still sits in the top 40 nationally — no worse than ninth best in what appears to be a nine-bid Big Ten — and they still have a consensus at-large probability of 94%. Despite its recent slump, Iowa has almost certainly done enough to warrant a bid.
Indiana’s late-season slump might have reached its nadir in the second round of the Big Ten tournament Wednesday, as the Hoosiers fell by double digits to Northwestern for their sixth loss in seven games. The defeat plunged their at-large probability to 15%, with 14 losses and a résumé ranked around No. 50 nationally. If the Big Ten gets 10 NCAA tournament bids, the Hoosiers would be in play for the last of those nods over USC (which also lost Wednesday and has a 1% at-large chance) — but the conference getting only nine bids would leave the Hoosiers out in the cold.
In desperate need of a win after six losses in seven games, NC State rallied from an early deficit to beat Pitt and make the ACC quarterfinals, but that was as far as the Wolfpack got. Virginia handled them Thursday to knock them out of the conference tourney. Their at-large odds are now 93% — down from a peak of 98% but not at all unfavorable when you consider that ranks seventh in an ACC trending toward eight NCAA entries. The Wolfpack still rank in the mid-30s nationally in our résumé ratings with a meaningful gap to the next-best team, SMU. Though their late-season swoon was far from ideal, they’ll probably get into the Big Dance anyway.
Much like Oklahoma and the SEC, the Cardinal jumped into the chaos of the ACC’s bubble after winning their fourth straight game (and sixth in eight) over NC State on Saturday. But losing a wild ACC tourney opener to Pitt on Tuesday means their fate is in the hands of the selection committee now. They have five Quadrant 1 wins, three in Quadrant 1A, leading SMU, Virginia Tech and Cal on both fronts. But they’re also outside the national top 50 in résumé ranking, below those of the Mustangs and Hokies. The model consensus now gives them a mere 14% at-large chance, based on uncertainty over whom the committee might favor (and what the rest of the ACC bubble does).
With a chance to officially clinch a spot in the NCAA field, the Broncos hung with Gonzaga for most of Tuesday’s WCC championship, but ultimately fell short. Now Santa Clara has to wait for Selection Sunday. Their fate will revolve around whether the West Coast Conference gets three bids, which has happened only once in the past 13 seasons, or just two. But the Broncos may have done their part for the extra spot by beating Saint Mary’s on Monday. The Broncos’ model chances are currently 88% for an at-large, and they picked a great time to record their first Quadrant 1A win of the year against SMC. With a borderline top-40 résumé ranking nationally, they can go toe-to-toe with the rest of the bubble anyway, and their trip to the conference title game might have put them over the top. But it’s in the committee’s hands now.
With their undefeated season ending at the hands of UMass in the MAC quarterfinals on Thursday, 31-1 Miami now must receive an at-large bid to make the tournament. The MAC hasn’t received multiple bids since 1998-99 — fittingly, the same year Wally Szczerbiak led Miami (Ohio) to the Sweet 16 after knocking off Washington and Utah in the first two rounds. Could history repeat? The RedHawks’ case is historically unique: On the one hand, they’re outside the top 90 in the predictive ratings and faced just the 303rd-hardest schedule in the nation. But winning matters, too, and an eligible one-loss squad has never missed the modern tourney. It’s difficult to imagine they would be excluded by the selection committee — but if they make it, the MAC would also feature a bid thief, which has big ripple effects on the rest of the bubble. This is the mess the committee was hoping to avoid.
After dominating Charlotte in back-to-back games, including Saturday’s American semifinal, the red-hot Bulls have won 13 of 14 games and 10 straight. There may not be a team hotter than South Florida, but if it loses the American tournament final and it comes down to an at-large bid, Joe Lunardi still has the conference sending only one team to the Big Dance as of writing. At 24-8 overall (against the 91st-ranked schedule) with a couple Quadrant 1 wins and now mid-40s in the national résumé rankings, their consensus at-large chances remain 20%.
The Aztecs seemed to be sliding off the bubble with losses in four of their last six regular-season games, but they beat Colorado State and New Mexico to make the Mountain West final versus Utah State. Unlike in their previous meeting, though, SDSU was not able to knock off the Aggies — so now the question is whether the Aztecs can be the MWC’s second bid to the tourney. Their consensus at-large chances are just 34%, so the models aren’t convinced. But SDSU does rank in the 40s nationally on the résumé list, and the Mountain West hasn’t sent fewer than three teams to the NCAA tournament in five seasons. If this ends up being a multibid conference, San Diego State is in, but it could end up sending only Utah State with the rest of the bubble offering so many alternative options.