Matt Bowen breaks down top fantasy move from Day 1 of free agency (1:40)Matt Bowen highlights the top fantasy moves from the first day of NFL free agency involving the Chiefs, the Saints and the 49ers. (1:40)
ESPN Fantasy StaffMultiple AuthorsMar 16, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
March 12: Kyler Murray signs one-year deal with Vikings
March 9: Chiefs adding Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III to backfield
March 9: Wan’Dale Robinson joining Titans on four-year deal
March 9: Colts trade Michael Pittman Jr. to Steelers
March 5: Bears trade veteran wideout Moore to Bills
March 9: Travis Kelce stays in Kansas City for one more season
The fantasy football offseason is heating up with NFL free agency upon us and the potential for big-time trades at any time. This column is designed to be a one-stop shop for quick-hitting analysis of the most impactful player movement.
ESPN Fantasy writers Matt Bowen, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Eric Karabell, Liz Loza and Eric Moody offer their insights into what each move means for a player’s fantasy value in 2026, and Mike Clay supplies his projections for each player. (All projections are for 17 games unless otherwise noted)
The Dolphins last won a playoff game during the 2000 season, but adding Willis to an offense led by magnificent RB De’Von Achane and solid WR Jaylen Waddle is a good start to energizing the offense (remember, WR Tyreek Hill is no longer on the team). Willis instantly becomes a fantasy sleeper, not someone we can call a safe top-10 option because, let’s face it, quarterback is deep with proven veterans, and some of them add value with their legs. But Willis might become a reliable option soon.
Clay’s projection: 334-for-522 passing, 3,596 yds, 17 TD, 11 INT; 105 carries, 545 yards, 5 TD rushing
Karabell: The Kansas City Chiefs, coming off a disappointing 6-11 season and needing running back help, plan to sign Super Bowl LX MVP Walker during free agency. That might solve the problem, as Walker is coming off the second 1,000-yard rushing season of his four-year career. He was a productive player with the Seattle Seahawks, averaging 4.4 yards per carry and scoring 31 touchdowns, but he never approached 250 rushing attempts (or 300 touches) in a season.
Karabell: Etienne, 27, finished the 2025 season as fantasy’s No. 10 PPR RB, as much of his volume from his outstanding 2023 returned. Like many Jaguars, Etienne was not effective in 2024, scoring only two touchdowns among 189 touches. He scored 13 touchdowns on his 296 touches last season, though it might be asking a lot for him to see similar volume in New Orleans with franchise stalwart Alvin Kamara remaining on the team.
Montgomery should return to 200-plus touches in Houston — perhaps pushing promising Woody Marks aside a bit — but there might be a receiving-minded running back to be named later helping him out, too. Sans veteran Joe Mixon (foot) for the entire season, no Texans running back reached even the low bar of 25 receptions, with the entire crew combining to catch only 54 passes. Montgomery caught 54 passes for the 2020 Chicago Bears, but he averaged only 25 receptions per his three Lions campaigns.
The Texans might not be done adding to their backfield, searching for a third-down option. Marks delivered six double-digit PPR efforts (though he did not rush for 75 yards in any game) during his rookie season despite little pass-catching relevance, so adding Montgomery to the crew is bad news for him. Then again, Marks had his chance; he scored two rushing touchdowns all season. Montgomery has scored multiple rushing touchdowns nine times.
Clay’s projection: 199 carries, 863 yards, six touchdowns rushing, 31 receptions, 241 yards and one touchdown receiving
Karabell: Pittman, 28, finished last season as fantasy’s No. 18 PPR WR, though much of his production occurred in the first half of the season when he caught six touchdown passes. Pittman scored only once in the final nine games, his production stymied even before starting QB Daniel Jones (Achilles) was injured and replaced by Philip Rivers. Fantasy managers were not pleased.
Bowen: With ESPN’s Adam Schefter reporting that the Chicago Bears are trading wide receiver DJ Moore to the Buffalo Bills — which will become official at the start of the league year — let’s discuss the fantasy implications for both clubs.
Moore will be a three-level route runner under Brady, too. He’ll be pressing defenses vertically and running the in-breakers, in addition to the screens and unders that cater to his explosive run-after-catch ability. When paired with Allen, Moore should be viewed as a WR2 who can produce breakout weeks.
Burden’s role will elevate in 2026, as he joins wide receiver Rome Odunze and tight end Colston Loveland as the top targets for quarterback Caleb Williams. We could see any of these three players taking the lead week-to-week depending on the game plan and/or opponent. But as we sit here now in March, Loveland will be in my TE1 ranks, and I’ll pencil in Odunze as a midtier WR2 and Burden as an upside WR3 who has the ability to post some WR1 weeks.
Cockcroft: In Minnesota, Murray will have a multitude of receivers with whom to work, from Justin Jefferson to Jordan Addison to tight end T.J. Hockenson, not to mention that running back Aaron Jones Sr. is a capable pass catcher in his own right. It’s an upgrade over what Murray had with the Arizona Cardinals the past three seasons, though injuries cost him 21 of the Cardinals’ 51 games in that time. He averaged 17.4 fantasy points with the Cardinals, which would have placed him 13th among the 27 qualified quarterbacks using only 2025 statistics. Murray should be able to match and probably exceed that with the Vikings, meaning his healthy games should manage to scrape the back of the top 10, but his injury history keeps him out of that rankings range for draft-day purposes.
Cockcroft: Smith, the Jets’ 2013 second-rounder and their starter in 2013-14, returns to the team where he flopped initially after what was a three-year resurgence with the Seattle Seahawks. Unfortunately, those good Seattle years were followed by a miserable 2025 with the Las Vegas Raiders, where he either led or tied for the league’s lead in both sacks (55) and interceptions (17). Smith could rebound behind a far better Jets offensive line than the 2025 Raiders line, and he’ll have productive players to work with in running back Breece Hall and No. 1 receiver Garrett Wilson. Assuming Smith beats out Justin Fields for the starting job (which is a fair guess), there could be some fantasy matchup opportunities, and Smith would warrant a superflex/2QB bench spot.
Karabell: Willis, 26, entering his fifth NFL season, finally gets a legitimate opportunity to be a starting QB in Miami. The Tennessee Titans’ third-round pick from 2022 started six games in four seasons. He shined during his brief work last season for the Green Bay Packers, rushing for 60 yards and two touchdowns in a Week 17 loss to the Baltimore Ravens and completing 85% of his 35 passes for the season, so there is obvious statistical upside for this athletic, dual-threat option. Willis replaces Tua Tagovailoa, Miami’s often-underwhelming starter for six seasons.
Loza: Shortly after officially being released by the Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa agreed to a one-year, $1.3 million deal with the Atlanta Falcons. The move suggests Atlanta will release Kirk Cousins and that Michael Penix Jr. (ACL) is unlikely to be ready at the start of the 2026 regular season. Newly hired offensive coordinator Tommy Rees, who served as the Browns’ offensive coordinator in 2025, figures to focus on the ground game, relying heavily on the talents of Bijan Robinson. Given the lack of depth behind Drake London and Kyle Pitts Sr., Tua figures to work as a game manager with minimal fantasy upside.
Cockcroft: At quick glance, Wilson will serve as a temporary fill-in for Zach Charbonnet (torn ACL), whose timetable ranges anywhere from 8-12 months from when he suffered the injury in January, though the Seattle Seahawks could add further depth to fill in those September (and perhaps October) games. George Holani and Kenny McIntosh are also around as alternative options. Wilson scored 32.3 fantasy points combined in a pair of late-season starts (Weeks 12 and 18) for the Green Bay Packers, but he also added 33.8 more points in his three other games with double-digit carries. If this is where the Seahawks wind up with their backfield come training camp, Wilson could be a fantasy late-rounder with early-season potential in standard leagues.
Cockcroft: Pacheco appears to be the Lions’ choice to replace David Montgomery as the team’s complementary back to Jahmyr Gibbs, though that hardly means he’ll slide directly into the role that made Montgomery the RB17, RB18 and RB27 the past three seasons, respectively. Pacheco’s metrics tumbled the past two seasons, and his 8.5% explosive play rate last year was noticeably beneath the league’s average (10.0%). He’ll probably be more of a change-of-pace back behind Gibbs, the top-scoring running back in 2025 who is in the prime of his career. Consider Pacheco a fantasy insurance policy.
Bowen: Dowdle, who agreed to a two-year deal with the Steelers on Monday evening, brings a decisive north/south running style to Mike McCarthy’s club. Straight-line juice here. In 2025, Dowdle had three breakout games with the Panthers — scoring 26 or more fantasy points — and he finished the season with 39 receptions. Dowdle joins Jaylen Warren in an anticipated split-backfield approach, which keeps both players near the RB2/Flex line. However, if Dowdle can emerge as the early down/goal-line runner, he would carry more value on a week-to-week basis.
Kamara (knee) missed the final six games of 2025, and he wasn’t thriving statistically to start with as the team introduced rookie QB Tyler Shough. However, we cannot ignore that Kamara, 30, is one of the top pass-catching running backs of the era, and he caught 68 passes two seasons ago. Etienne has been an effective receiver, scoring six of his touchdowns through the air last season, but this could easily be a frustrating timeshare. Kamara’s fantasy value takes a bigger hit here, as we should not expect nearly as many rushing attempts, but it is also likely that Etienne lacks the volume to perform as a fantasy top-10 running back after doing so two of the past three seasons.