play1:29Why Duke has a ‘very, very difficult’ draw in the EastJay Bilas, Jay Williams and Seth Greenberg examine potential roadblocks for Duke in the East Region.
play1:19Is the South region set up for a Florida-Vandy Sweet 16 rematch?Seth Greenberg and Jay Bilas break down top-seed Florida’s path in the South Region, with a potential rematch against Vanderbilt in the Sweet 16.
play0:41Can Darius Acuff Jr. carry Arkansas to a national title?Jay Bilas wonders if freshman Darius Acuff Jr. is talented enough to lead Arkansas out of the West Region and into the Final Four.
play1:45Why Jay Bilas believes Miami (OH) should’ve avoided the First FourJay Bilas doesn’t agree with Miami (OH) needing to play in the First Four in the Midwest region.
‘College GameDay’ crew makes its Final Four picks (2:42)Jay Williams, Jay Bilas, Seth Greenberg and Rece Davis reveal their picks for the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament. (2:42)
Why Duke has a ‘very, very difficult’ draw in the EastJay Bilas, Jay Williams and Seth Greenberg examine potential roadblocks for Duke in the East Region.
Jay Bilas, Jay Williams and Seth Greenberg examine potential roadblocks for Duke in the East Region.
Is the South region set up for a Florida-Vandy Sweet 16 rematch?Seth Greenberg and Jay Bilas break down top-seed Florida’s path in the South Region, with a potential rematch against Vanderbilt in the Sweet 16.
Seth Greenberg and Jay Bilas break down top-seed Florida’s path in the South Region, with a potential rematch against Vanderbilt in the Sweet 16.
Can Darius Acuff Jr. carry Arkansas to a national title?Jay Bilas wonders if freshman Darius Acuff Jr. is talented enough to lead Arkansas out of the West Region and into the Final Four.
Jay Bilas wonders if freshman Darius Acuff Jr. is talented enough to lead Arkansas out of the West Region and into the Final Four.
Why Jay Bilas believes Miami (OH) should’ve avoided the First FourJay Bilas doesn’t agree with Miami (OH) needing to play in the First Four in the Midwest region.
Jay BilasMar 16, 2026, 09:00 AM ETClose College basketball analyst for ESPN and ESPN Insider Played and coached at Duke Practicing attorneyMultiple Authors
You already know the drill. After my fellow analysts and I have the privilege of calling the SEC championship game in Nashville, Tennessee, we move swiftly to process the men’s NCAA tournament field as it is revealed. Our bosses at ESPN ask us each to fill out a bracket — while we are on the air — so we can reveal our picks before the end of the show.
They give us less than five minutes. Hardly ideal, but perhaps our first instincts are better than considered thought. I decided that I would give you more than five minutes so you can dazzle your friends and win your office pool — and perhaps our Tournament Challenge.
Last season, my bracket was chalky: I had all four No. 1 seeds reaching the Final Four, Houston and Florida advancing to the championship game, and the Gators cutting down the nets. The backlash was swift and unrelenting. I was criticized for not picking an underdog to reach San Antonio. But when the dust cleared, all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four, and the Cougars and Gators battled it out for the title. You’re welcome — and I forgive you. All of you.
Here are my best guesses for the bracket. Use your best judgment. And remember: This is supposed to be fun.
The 1 vs. 16 matchup has featured two amazing upsets, when UMBC beat Virginia in 2018 and FDU beat Purdue in 2023. But two wins since the field expanded in 1985 aren’t great odds for Siena. As a rule, take the No. 1 seed. This game matches two coaches who won national championships as players — Jon Scheyer and Gerry McNamara. The difference? Duke has Cameron Boozer.
The Buckeyes have Bruce Thornton, Ohio State’s all-time leading scorer and a respected player across the country. TCU has David Punch, who scored a season-high 26 points against Oklahoma State in this week’s Big 12 quarterfinals. This is an underrated team, one that beat Florida early in the season. The 8-9 matchup is a coin flip, but I am taking TCU.
There is usually an upset alert in the 5 vs. 12 game, but St. John’s is too strong — and Rick Pitino does not often lose first-round games. The Red Storm are underseeded. Take the Johnnies.
Kansas was awful in its Big 12 tournament loss to Houston — the Jayhawks’ 47 points were by far their fewest of the season. Regardless, they should win this game thanks to Flory Bidunga protecting the rim.
One thing is for sure in this game: There will be a lot of long rebounds because both teams like to shoot 3s. This is a great upset pick: Mikel Brown Jr. has been out because of a sore back, and South Florida is tough. It’s worth rolling the dice on this one because Michigan State will likely beat either team.
The Bruins have Donovan Dent, one of the five best point guards in the nation, but UCF has Themus Fulks, Jordan Burks and the Big 12’s version of Draymond Green in Jamichael Stillwell. With UCLA banged up, the Knights are worth a flier.
Though the Huskies have not been as dominant as many expected this season, this is still a really good team. Furman’s Alex Wilkins has been one of the best freshmen in the country, but UConn’s interior should be the difference.
Even banged up, Duke should win, although TCU should be a really tough out. Could the Blue Devils lose? Yes. Still, take them — a lot of brackets will be busted, so the rest of your choices will carry you.
Why Duke has a ‘very, very difficult’ draw in the East
As we established earlier, I trust Michigan State in March. Jeremy Fears Jr. is the difference — and he’s coming into the tournament hot, having scored 20-plus points in each of his past four games.
This one will depend on Duke’s health. If Patrick Ngongba II is healthy, the Blue Devils win. If not, that lowers Duke’s ceiling — and the Johnnies can absolutely prevail. Still, unless you went to St. John’s, take Duke in this one.
Both teams are experienced and worthy of the Elite Eight. But the Huskies are coming into the tournament cold after a loss in their regular-season finale to Marquette and then a rout by St. John’s in the Big East final. I like Michigan State’s draw, and the fight the Spartans show — they’ve beaten No. 5 Illinois and No. 8 Purdue in the past six weeks, and played tough against Michigan twice.
These two played in East Lansing earlier this season, with Duke winning 66-60. Michigan State has a great chance to avenge that loss. The Blue Devils would win a seven-game series, but this is only one. Go with Green.
The Tigers are big and well-coached, but the Hawkeyes have Bennett Stirtz, one of the best shotmakers in college basketball, who is averaging 20.2 points, 3.4 rebounds and 5.1 assists. Take Iowa. Neither beats Florida, anyway.
This 5 vs. 12 matchup is always a trendy upset pick — and then-No. 12 McNeese beat Clemson last year. But in this case, Vanderbilt’s guards, Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles, are too good for a Cowboys upset. Take Vandy.
The Trojans won at San Diego State and lost in triple overtime at USC. Troy can play. And though Nebraska has never won an NCAA tournament game, this year ends that drought.
This is a scary game for the Tar Heels. Without Caleb Wilson, they have a lower ceiling. North Carolina is better and should win. But VCU is a fair upset pick here.
The Quakers have TJ Power, who had 44 points against Yale in a magnificent performance. But this Illinois team is very talented, especially on the offensive end — and after all, the Illini’s freshman phenom, Keaton Wagler, topped that mark with 46 points against Purdue in January. Illinois wins.
The Cougars have Kingston Flemings, one of the best freshmen in the country and a certain lottery pick. Houston’s defense is too good for an upset pick here.
Florida has arguably the best frontcourt in the nation, featuring Thomas Haugh (an SEC Player of the Year contender); Rueben Chinyelu, an elite defender; and Alex Condon. Size matters. With a big game from Stirtz, Iowa could certainly win this game, but I favor Florida.
This is a great matchup. Nebraska can beat almost anyone, but Vanderbilt’s guards will be the difference. It’s a close call, but take Duke Miles’ Commodores. He made a steal in the SEC final on Sunday at midcourt against Arkansas with his left hand that I thought was one of the best thefts I’ve seen all season long. He’s legit.
Illinois can make life difficult for North Carolina, which will be relying on Henri Veesaar (16.7 points per game) in Wilson’s absence. With Wagler leading a group of five Illini averaging double digits, Illinois just has too many scorers.
Houston can play against fast or slow teams — and can match Saint Mary’s physical, slower pace. The Gaels can win, especially if the Cougars shoot poorly, but I favor Houston.
In a rematch of the SEC tournament semifinals, this time Florida will have a little extra motivation. The Gators turned it over too much in that game against Vanderbilt’s pressure and steal-happy guards, Tyler Tanner and Duke Miles. Despite the Commodores’ talent there, Florida is bigger and stronger. Vandy will score, but Florida will be out for payback.
Is the South region set up for a Florida-Vandy Sweet 16 rematch?
Illinois has the better offense, and Houston has the better defense. I am taking offense in this one, but it’s an agonizing choice. Take the Illini, but understand the Cougars are fully capable of winning.
If the adage goes that guards win in March, well, Illinois has better guards. Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell will be the difference, even as Florida is better inside and on the glass. I am taking the Illini because they can rain down 3s over the Gators’ big men.
The Sharks are coached by Rod Strickland, one of the best point guards in college hoops history, but he cannot play in this one. Arizona is too good, and remember: The 16-seed wins less than 1% of the time.
There is no such thing as an upset in the 8-9 game, but Utah State winning would feel like one. Mason Falslev is the Mountain West Player of the Year and MJ Collins Jr. is a good 3-point shooter. This is a coin flip, but take Utah State. Either team is likely to lose to Arizona in the next round.