Myron MedcalfMar 15, 2026, 06:45 PM ETClose Covers college basketball Joined ESPN.com in 2011 Graduate of Minnesota State University, MankatoFollow on XMultiple Authors
Why Duke has a ‘very, very difficult’ draw in the East (1:29)Jay Bilas, Jay Williams and Seth Greenberg examine potential roadblocks for Duke in the East Region. (1:29)
Get your popcorn ready because this NCAA tournament could be one of the best in recent memory. The top seeds are elite programs with the potential to cut down the nets. The underdogs are dangerous, too.
The field also has undeniable star power. Top transfers such as Yaxel Lendeborg at Michigan and freshman stars (see: AJ Dybantsa, a candidate for the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA draft) are all in the same tier of teams this year, chasing the same dreams.
We’re got enough to help the nerds and the newcomers to the NCAA tournament chaos make sense of everything.
All stats current through regular season unless otherwise noted. Odds by DraftKings Sports, subject to change.
The Bison have reached the NCAA tournament for a third time under Dave Richman, who has been affiliated with the program since 2003, when he was a grad assistant. Their 27 wins on the season are also a career high for him. It’s a testament to North Dakota State’s high level of play. Since New Year’s Eve, the Bison have made 55% of their shots inside the arc (66th in the country) and 38% of their shots from the 3-point line (29th in the country). They’ve heated up at the right time.
Kenny Blakeney won a national title at Duke in 1992 before spending the next 25 years as a coaching assistant on various staffs. Since arriving at Howard in 2019, he has led the Bison to three NCAA tournament appearances in four years. Before that, Howard hadn’t been dancing since, yes, 1992. With Cedric Taylor III (17.1 PPG) and Bryce Harris (17.1 PPG) on board this season, Blakeney is hoping for a miracle in March.
Cameron Boozer (22.7 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 41% from beyond the arc) is the national player of the year front-runner this season, poised to end the 2025-26 campaign with the highest offensive rating in KenPom history (since 2003-04). He is even better in most categories than last year’s winner, Cooper Flagg, who won the award by a landslide. He is not the only reason the Blue Devils captured a No. 1 seed — coach Jon Scheyer also developed the returning talent around his 6-foot-9, 250-pound star freshman. That said, guard Caleb Foster (8.5 PPG, 40% from beyond the arc), the third-most-impactful offensive player on the roster, per EvanMiya, will likely not see the court the rest of this season, after needing surgery on a fractured foot. Patrick Ngongba II (10.7 PPG, 6.0 RPG) is also dealing with a foot injury, although he is “hopeful” to return for the NCAA tournament. Those developments will put more pressure on Isaiah Evans (14.5 PPG) and Boozer’s twin brother Cayden Boozer (6.5 PPG) in the weeks ahead.
The Wildcats won their first 23 games of the 2025-26 season, a byproduct of an unmatched depth to the roster: There are seven (!) players averaging at least 8.7 points this season. This astute and balanced pack is led by Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley (13.4 PPG, 4.6 APG) and Brayden Burries (16.0 PPG, 37% from beyond the arc), an All-Big 12 first-team selection. Since returning from injury, freshman Koa Peat (13.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG) has looked like the first-round pick he has been projected to be all season. And with an “Excellent” defensive rating, per Synergy Sports, Motiejus Krivas is one of the nation’s top defensive players, and the most critical element of the best defense in the Big 12. With wins over other juggernauts Florida, UConn, Alabama, Houston and Kansas, Arizona has all of the pieces to compete for the program’s — and the West Coast’s — first national title since 1997.
Michigan has overwhelmed opponents all season with one of the biggest lineups in America. Yaxel Lendeborg (6-9), Morez Johnson Jr. (6-9) and Aday Mara (7-3) form one of the nation’s tallest frontcourts. Head coach Dusty May has big guards, too, with Nimari Burnett, Roddy Gayle Jr. and Trey McKenney all 6-4 or taller. The combination of a physically imposing roster, and the team’s overall talent, has made the Wolverines a serious national championship contender. Lendeborg (14.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG, 1.4 BPG) is a projected lottery pick in this summer’s NBA draft, and he is a top two-way threat. Entering the Big Ten tournament, he led a Michigan squad that was in the top five in both offense and defense, made 59% of its shots inside the arc and connected on 37% of its 3-point attempts since Jan. 14, per BartTorvik. The Wolverines lost just two games during the regular season (to Wisconsin and Duke on a neutral court) by eight points combined. Beyond those blemishes — and the late-season injury to L.J. Cason, which impacts their point guard depth chart behind Elliot Cadeau — they have been nearly flawless.
Coach Todd Golden lost his entire starting backcourt from last year’s national championship team, which meant this season’s roster needed some time to bond early on. The Gators found their rhythm and as a result ended the regular season on an 11-game winning streak. A reserve on that title team, Thomas Haugh (17.2 PPG, 6.1 RPG) is now a projected lottery pick and SEC Player of the Year contender. Rueben Chinyelu (11.4 PPG, 11.7 RPG, 1.1 BPG) is in pursuit of national defensive player of the year honors. Alex Condon (14.8 PPG), Xaivian Lee (11.6 PPG, 4.2 APG) and Boogie Fland (11.6 PPG, 1.9 SPG) are also key players for the No. 2 team in America — that also shot 59% from 2 and 38% from 3 — behind Duke during that 11-game winning streak, per BartTorvik.
John Wooden (1972, 1973, 1975) was the last coach to win three national titles in four years. Dan Hurley will aim to do the same thing this year. Alex Karaban (12.9 PPG, 40% from beyond the arc) is the only holdover from the Huskies’ 2023 and 2024 championship teams. But this group, which won 18 straight games earlier this season, has a similar ceiling to those teams. These Huskies are relying on their experience to help get there, with upperclassmen Silas Demary Jr. (11.1 PPG), Solo Ball (13.9 PPG) and Tarris Reed Jr. (13.8 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.1 BPG). Freshman Braylon Mullins competes like a player beyond his years — which is why he could end up in the NBA next year. While this team has hit a few speedbumps (see: losses to Creighton and Marquette) in recent weeks, make no mistake: Hurley’s team is still one of the most dangerous squads in the field.
The return of Braden Smith, a first-team AP All-American last year, boosted the buzz around the preseason No. 1 Boilermakers. And they lived up to it, beginning the year 17-1 with wins over Alabama and Texas Tech. But then came a troubling collapse in the final weeks of the regular season. Purdue went 6-7 in its final 13 games as the schedule became more difficult. That said, coach Matt Painter’s team has a top-three offense nationally, making 39% of its 3-point attempts in the regular season. Smith (14.9 PPG, 8.7 APG) is an All-America candidate again, and Fletcher Loyer (13.6 PPG, 42% from beyond the arc) is simply one of the nation’s best shooters. If the Boilermakers play with the same No. 20 defense that fueled that 17-1 start and avoid the No. 88 defense that lost them those seven games down the final regular-season stretch, they can make a run in March.
The Cyclones’ regular season is the equivalent of a fantastic movie that ended on a mysterious cliffhanger. Through Feb. 7, they had lost just two games and earned wins over top teams St. John’s and Purdue. But then, they won just four of their next eight — even if two of those four wins came against Kansas and Houston. At their best, they’re one of America’s most imposing and balanced teams. They play top-10 defense. They boast one of the nation’s most impressive trios in the country. Milan Momcilovic (17.0 PPG, 50% from beyond the arc) is one of the greatest 3-point shooters in recent memory, Tamin Lipsey (13.3 PPG, 5.0 APG) is on the short list for best point guards in the country, and Joshua Jefferson (16.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 5.0 APG) is an All-America candidate. During the team’s 4-4 slide, however, its offensive efficiency slipped to 84th in the country. The Cyclones are, at times, a beautiful mess.
Months after his Cougars fell short in the national title game, coach Kelvin Sampson added perhaps the most talented player he has coached at Houston. Kingston Flemings (16.5 PPG, 5.4 APG, 38% from beyond the arc) is a 6-4 freshman point guard who is also a projected draft lottery pick. His 42-point effort in a loss to Texas Tech was a school record for a freshman, and he is one of the brightest stars Sampson has coached. This year’s team isn’t the great 3-point shooting team (34.5%) of last year (39%), even with Emanuel Sharp (15.8 PPG), Milos Uzan (11.5 PPG) and reigning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year Joseph Tugler (8.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG) back. But, led by Flemings, the Cougars are offensively the third-best team in the nation in turnover rate per KenPom. In fact, Flemings could be the difference-maker if Houston finds its way back to the Final Four.
This Michigan State squad has the same toughness and tenacity as the eight teams coach Tom Izzo has previously led to the Final Four. These Spartans don’t have one player listed in ESPN’s latest NBA mock draft. That hasn’t stopped them from securing big wins over Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, Purdue and Illinois. Michigan State wins off second-chance opportunities (it is seventh nationally in offensive rebounding rate) and a top-10 defense. Jeremy Fears Jr. (15.5 PPG, 9.1 APG, 1.3 SPG) has made a case to be America’s best point guard, as well as the nation’s most improved player. Behind him, the Spartans have four players who are averaging double figures, and a deep bench with four others who average at least 15 minutes a game. They might not show up in “SportsCenter’s” highlights, but the Spartans can hold their own against most of the teams in the field.