David SchoenfieldMar 16, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseCovers MLB for ESPN.com Former deputy editor of Page 2 Been with ESPN.com since 1995Multiple Authors
In its simplicity, baseball’s box score is perfect at measuring the basic building blocks of the game: scoring runs while trying to avoid making outs. The numbers not only evaluate a player’s performance but also offer illumination into the game. You don’t have to be a numbers person to enjoy baseball — but numbers can be used to tell season-defining stories, ones that help drive our passion for the game.
What are some of the fantastical numbers that might drive the stories in 2026? Let’s dig in with a preseason edition of Real or Not.
There are some obvious roadblocks here. Ohtani is more likely to pitch once a week rather than every fifth or sixth day. With 26 weeks in the season, that’s 26 starts — and even that is assuming the Dodgers don’t give him additional time off at some point.
It has been done, however: Clayton Kershaw won 21 games in 2014 while making just 27 starts. Pedro Martinez won an incredible 22 games in 29 starts in 1999 (and one more in relief). So, if Ohtani has a lights-out season and the Dodgers give him run support, winning 20 might be possible even if he doesn’t make 30-plus starts.
Verdict: Not Real. The problem with the Kershaw and Martinez examples is that they averaged more innings pitched per game than Ohtani will average, which leads to more decisions. The Dodgers are still going to be careful with him and will want him ready for October, so 26 starts feel like the absolute max he’ll make. Cy Young? Perhaps. Twenty wins? Probably not.
Since the end of the dead ball era in 1920, only two pitchers have thrown at least 100 innings in three different seasons with an ERA under 2.00: Sandy Koufax did it in 1963, 1964 and 1966; Kershaw did it in 2013, 2014 and 2016. Note that neither of them did it three seasons in a row. Skenes can do that in 2026 for the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Skenes might be the perfect pitcher prototype: He’s tall (6-foot-6); he throws hard (his four-seam fastball averaged 98.2 mph in 2025) and throws strikes; he utilizes seven different pitches; he’s dedicated to his craft with an already legendary pregame routine; he’s consistent — in 11 months in the majors, his worst ERA has been 3.18; and he’s mature and focused.
Verdict: Real. Again, all it takes is a couple of blow-up starts, and a sub-2.00 ERA in this era becomes difficult. However, Skenes had 12 starts last season where he allowed no runs. That total should rise in 2026 — and I doubt there will be many, if any, five-run outings for this ace.
Can he do it again? Well, Soto has his sights on an MVP Award — “It’s not going to be easy, but I’ve got to find a way to beat him,” he said last month, referencing four-time winner Ohtani — and a 40/40 season would provide a bold headline to help that happen. After a slow start in 2025 that saw him hitting .224 on May 28, the New York Mets slugger hit .285/.418/.596 over his final 105 games. If he does that for six months, we’ll have an MVP debate.
Verdict: Real. It might be easy to say teams will be more aware of Soto’s baserunning in 2026, but they were aware of what he was doing in August and September and still couldn’t stop him. I think he’ll have another big year on the bases.
It’s going to happen one of these years: A reliever with at least 50 innings will keep his batting average allowed under .100. Kirby Yates came closest, allowing a .113 average in 2024. Aroldis Chapman held batters to a .132 average last season with Miller not far behind at .139. Batters were 28-for-202 off Miller; they would need to go 20-for-202 to get the average down to .099.
Verdict: Not Real. Considering he’s this unhittable and his fastball averages 101 mph in short bursts out of the pen, it’s understandable why the Padres are keeping Miller as a closer rather than making him a starter, as rumored when they acquired him from the A’s at last year’s trade deadline. Frankly, he’s probably a little too wild to become a starter, or at least a dominant one, anyway.
As for a sub-.100 average? Given that Miller averaged 15.2 strikeouts per nine innings, he’s not allowing many balls in play, that’s for sure. I’m taking the over, since a sub-.100 average will require a mix of domination and luck on balls in play, but this will be one to monitor.
More than any other all-time great hitter, Judge has made himself into a great hitter as opposed to launching straight into stardom. Yes, he has the size and strength, but it took him a long apprenticeship through college and the minors before he learned to translate that raw power into game power for the New York Yankees. He was 25 years old his rookie season — especially old for a player who would go on to achieve his stature as one of the best hitters ever. Judge turns 34 in April, so although you might expect his decline to begin, he’s such a student of the game and knows his swing and process so well that he should remain the most dominant hitter in baseball.
Granted, Koufax averaged 323 innings in his three seasons and Kershaw averaged 194 in his three, whereas Skenes is aiming for his first 200-inning season — but that also leaves less margin for error for Skenes to post a sub-2.00 ERA. In 1963, Koufax allowed five or more runs in five of his starts, including one in which he got just one out; in 1965, he allowed five-plus runs five times; and in 1966, it happened twice, in starts of just two and three innings. Skenes allowed five runs in a start just once in 2025 — and just 45 runs overall across 32 starts.
Is allowing eight fewer hits — assuming the same number of innings — possible? It doesn’t feel like that many, right? Then consider that in his two months with the San Diego Padres, batters went 7-for-73 off Miller (including 1-for-37 in September). That’s an average of .096. Over his final four months, Miller held batters to an average of .092. It seems possible! On the other hand, only two relievers have consistently held batters to an average under .150 year after year: Chapman (five times) and Craig Kimbrel (five times). Nobody else has done it more than twice.
Verdict: Not Real. My only hesitation here is that Caminero is still prone to chasing out of the strike zone. Out of 146 qualified hitters, he ranked 116th in chase rate. Will pitchers figure out how to exploit that more in 2026? Will he hit to the opposite field more this season, perhaps sacrificing some power for a higher average (and fewer pulled grounders, which led to an MLB-high 31 double plays grounded into last year)? With his bat speed, there are multiple directions his offensive game could go, but I’m betting on pure power.
David SchoenfieldMar 16, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseCovers MLB for ESPN.com Former deputy editor of Page 2 Been with ESPN.com since 1995Multiple Authors
Thus, the start of a new MLB season begs the question: Who will reach new heights in 2026?
CloseCovers MLB for ESPN.com Former deputy editor of Page 2 Been with ESPN.com since 1995
Season 1: 133 IP, 1.96 ERA Season 2: 187⅔ IP, 1.97 ERA