Mel Kiper Jr.Mar 17, 2026, 06:25 AM ETCloseMel Kiper Jr. has served as an NFL draft analyst for ESPN since 1984. He is a regular contributor on “SportsCenter,” ESPN studio shows and ESPN Radio. He is the co-host of the First Draft podcast, and he writes regularly for ESPN+.Follow on XMultiple Authors
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So with all that in mind, I’m rolling out an updated mock draft, predicting landing spots for 32 top prospects in Round 1. Things aren’t final here — pro days, interviews and more offseason moves will still shake up the board a bit — but we’re getting a much clearer picture of the early picks as we near the Raiders’ first selection on April 23.
Here’s my thinking on how Round 1 could look based on current team needs and what I’m hearing from sources in the league. And for more, check out “NFL Draft Daily” at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN2 all week long.
The Giants have some options at safety — including newly signed Jason Pinnock and Ar’Darius Washington — but Downs is on another level. He’s a complete football player, and New York should have no hesitation in taking him here (highest draft slot for a safety since Eric Berry in 2010). Putting him alongside Jevon Holland on the back end would help not only in creating turnovers (the Giants had 15 last season, 25th in the league) but also shoring up a very bad run defense.
The Commanders couldn’t stop anyone last season, and linebacker Bobby Wagner appears to be headed elsewhere as a free agent. Bringing in Styles — my No. 6 prospect regardless of position — to team up with Frankie Luvu and new addition Leo Chenal makes some sense. After a 77-tackle season, Styles posted an incredible 43½-inch vertical jump at the combine, a glimpse into his explosion. Washington needs good ball players, and Styles is just that.
I could also see Washington going with a receiver here, perhaps Carnell Tate, Styles’ teammate at Ohio State. The Commanders’ offense is looking for more juice opposite top wideout Terry McLaurin.
With a new quarterback in Malik Willis and an offense that revolves around running back De’Von Achane, right tackle is important for Miami. But Austin Jackson has played 14 games combined over the past two seasons, and Larry Borom is off to Detroit. That’s why the Dolphins should take a long look at Mauigoa. He started 42 games in college, over which time he put together some really good tape. Mauigoa uses his strength to dominate pass rushers, and he can clear out running lanes.
Dallas gave up a league-worst 7.3 yards per dropback last season, and the secondary was gashed for a league-high 46 passing plays of 25 or more yards. I liked the Jalen Thompson signing at safety, and Cobie Durant will chip in at cornerback alongside DaRon Bland and Shavon Revel Jr., but the Cowboys are still looking for their No. 1 cornerback.
McCoy doesn’t come without questions; he tore an ACL in January 2025, sat out the season and then didn’t work out at the combine. But he can flat out play football when he’s on the field. McCoy had four interceptions in 2024. If Dallas likes what it sees at his March 31 pro day, this could be a smart pick.
Top NFL cornerback prospect Jermod McCoy breaks down his physical health ahead of his pro day.
The Rams already have Puka Nacua and Davante Adams running routes, but the No. 3 receiver role is wide open. Getting Tyson into the mix in their all-in year could be huge for quarterback Matthew Stafford. Tyson is almost always available to the football, making tough plays in tight coverage. He plays the game a lot like Adams, and if not for some durability concerns, Tyson would probably be the top receiver in the class.
It appeared this pick was going to Las Vegas. Instead, Baltimore will still be on the clock at No. 14. Fano is steady as a pass protector, with double-digit starts at each tackle spot. But with 32⅛-inch arms, he might actually slide inside at the next level.
Teams worked out Fano at center during the combine, so he could absolutely handle that role as a replacement for Tyler Linderbaum on the Ravens. Fano could also join new addition John Simpson as a starting guard. And on top of all that, he’d provide much-needed depth behind Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten at tackle. (The other path would be taking a wide receiver — don’t be surprised if this ends up being Jordyn Tyson or USC’s Makai Lemon.)
For the first time since he was drafted in 2014, Mike Evans won’t be suiting up for the Buccaneers. The veteran receiver signed with the 49ers, and though Tampa Bay still has Emeka Egbuka, Chris Godwin Jr. and Jalen McMillan, it is going to miss Evans’ 6-foot-5 size downfield and in the red zone.
Sadiq could fill some of that void. Defenses struggle to match up with him because of his big 6-foot-3 frame and 4.39 speed, and he has the explosive traits to go up and get 50-50 balls. Sure, the Bucs re-signed tight end Cade Otton, but new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson ran 12 personnel (two tight ends) 38.2% of the time in Atlanta last season, second most in the NFL.
The Jets don’t have to draft a quarterback here. They traded for Geno Smith as a bridge option and have three first-round picks in 2027, when the QB class should be a lot better. But this is a good range for Simpson, who has only 15 career starts but throws with accuracy, processes quickly and moves well in the pocket. He threw 28 touchdown passes in 2025 and is a first-round QB in my book.
Simply put, New York has to take some swings to figure out the long-term solution under center. I could see the Jets drafting Simpson and letting him learn and develop a little behind Smith before he moves into the starter role.
We still don’t know whether 37-year-old Harrison Smith will keep playing (and if so, whether he’ll return to Minnesota as a free agent). Joshua Metellus, Jay Ward and Theo Jackson are the top safeties on the Vikings’ depth chart. In a division with Caleb Williams, Jordan Love and Jared Goff, this has to be a priority at the draft regardless of whether Smith is back for Year 15.
I had Thieneman to the Vikings in my last mock draft. He reminds me a lot of Smith in the way he reads the QB and reacts in a flash. I could see defensive coordinator Brian Flores getting creative with Thieneman, lining him up all over the formation and letting him use his great ball skills to pile up takeaways.
It’d be wise for the Cowboys to double-dip on defense (Jermod McCoy at No. 12). They gave up 6.1 yards per play in 2025, 31st in the NFL and third worst for any team in any of the past five seasons. Allen can play all three downs, as he can drop in coverage, run down ball carriers and even blitz. He had 97 tackles last season for the Bulldogs, showcasing tremendous read-and-react skills.
The Steelers’ quarterback situation is still a big question. Will Aaron Rodgers return? Will another veteran step in — such as Kirk Cousins? Or will Pittsburgh target a signal-caller in the draft? No matter what the Steelers plan to do, the top two quarterbacks are off the board here, and there isn’t a third one worthy of a Day 1 selection.
Instead, Pittsburgh can try to replace Isaac Seumalo, who signed with the Cardinals. Ioane is the top pure guard in the class, with the power to physically move pass rushers out of the way and the light feet to erase second-level defenders. He didn’t give up any sacks last season.
Iheanachor had 31 starts at Arizona State, but he didn’t play much football before that, picking up the sport late. He’ll need time to reach his potential in the NFL. But what better way to develop than learning behind an elite right tackle in Lane Johnson? Iheanachor plays with quick feet — he ran a 4.91-second 40-yard dash at 6-foot-6 and 321 pounds — and great length. He could provide swing tackle depth in Year 1 before eventually taking over for Johnson on the right side.
The Bears had 35 sacks (tied for 22nd) and a lowly 28.0% pressure rate (29th) last season. Montez Sweat had 10 of those sacks, but there wasn’t much beyond him. Dayo Odeyingbo was signed last offseason to be the second guy off the edge, but he managed one sack over eight games before an Achilles injury ended his season. Despite struggling to find consistent quarterback pressure for a few years now, Chicago hasn’t used a top-50 pick on an edge rusher since Leonard Floyd went ninth in 2016.
Let’s change that. Young had 6.5 sacks and 46 pressures last season, playing with power and a full-go motor. He’d bring some intensity to the Bears’ front.
The Bills’ tight salary cap led to some cornerback changes this offseason, with the team cutting Dane Jackson, trading Taron Johnson and letting Tre’Davious White hit free agency. They have Christian Benford and 2025 first-rounder Maxwell Hairston in place, but the depth is shallow. Terrell is great in man coverage, showing the ability to stick on receivers. He didn’t come away with any interceptions last season, but he broke up nine passes.
Why would the Texans go defense? Yes, it’s their strength, but they need to keep it their strength. Smart teams plan ahead. And having the chance to put a disruptive interior lineman between Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter is exciting. Miller is active and quick, and he keeps getting better. With opponents focused on stopping Anderson and Hunter, Miller could get pressure inside and make some plays in the backfield. He had 7.5 tackles for loss over the past two years.