play0:30Duke’s NCAA tournament previewJoe Lunardi breaks down the Duke Blue Devils’ NCAA tournament prospects.
play1:02Arizona’s NCAA tournament preview Joe Lunardi breaks down Arizona’s NCAA tournament prospects.
play0:44Michigan’s NCAA tournament previewJoe Lunardi breaks down the Michigan Wolverines’ NCAA tournament prospects.
play0:30Houston Cougars’ NCAA men’s tournament previewJoe Lunardi breaks down Tennessee’s NCAA tournament prospects.
Duke’s NCAA tournament previewJoe Lunardi breaks down the Duke Blue Devils’ NCAA tournament prospects.
Arizona’s NCAA tournament preview Joe Lunardi breaks down Arizona’s NCAA tournament prospects.
Michigan’s NCAA tournament previewJoe Lunardi breaks down the Michigan Wolverines’ NCAA tournament prospects.
Houston Cougars’ NCAA men’s tournament previewJoe Lunardi breaks down Tennessee’s NCAA tournament prospects.
Joe LunardiMar 17, 2026, 09:45 AM ETClose Resident college basketball bracketologist for ESPN Contributor to SportsCenter, ESPN Insider Published first public bracket in 1995Follow on XMultiple Authors
It’s how Bracketology began, when a handful of hoop nerds gathered during “Selection Weekend” to put together an 80-page postseason “Blue Ribbon” guide. It was the ultimate conclusion to spending the college basketball season poring over résumés, watching games and evaluating strengths, weaknesses and possibilities. All on the crew’s own time.
The guide has shrunk a tad in length and is no longer in print, but it still fulfills the same role: outlining the crucial information you need to fill out brackets.
We’ve made the case for exactly how each team will advance — and how they won’t. Bracketologist in Chief Joe Lunardi also ran the numbers one last time to forecast where each will actually finish in the final field of 68.
Joe Lunardi breaks down the Duke Blue Devils’ NCAA tournament prospects.
Duke’s conveyor belt of ready-made freshman stars has delivered again with Cameron Boozer, Durham’s latest hoops prodigy. He is atop every scouting report and still averages nearly 23 points per contest. His presence, plus a No. 1 seed, a talent-laden roster and Jon Scheyer’s coaching acumen, are reasons to believe Duke could capture its first national championship since 2015.
Duke owns wins over fellow title contenders Michigan and Florida and is one of the cut-down-the-nets favorites. But the last teams standing in the Big Dance are often experienced squads, and Scheyer has a roster dominated by freshmen and sophomores. Another question mark is the health of starters Patrick Ngongba II and Caleb Foster, who are both contending with foot injuries.
Duke is the only team ranked in the top four nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, according to KenPom. Airtight D has been a key to success under Scheyer. In fact, Duke has boasted a top-20 defense in all four of Scheyer’s seasons: 16th in 2022-23; 16th in 2023-24; fifth in 2024-25; now first this season. — Bill Doherty
Duke has all the ingredients of a national champion: a superstar with an all-around game (Boozer), a roster with multiple likely 2026 NBA first-round draft picks (Boozer, Ngongba, Isaiah Evans) and an efficient offense and elite defense, and it is peaking at the right time. If it feels like another Final Four trip — at least — for Duke, it will be. Let’s call the Blue Devils national runner-up to Arizona.
The Huskies run Danny Hurley’s offense like a well-oiled machine, yet they truly win games by physically dominating opponents on the glass and on defense. UConn plays aggressive man-to-man defense, funneling drivers to Tarris Reed Jr. protecting the rim, with every other player ready and able to rebound and kick-start an offensive scoring opportunity.
UConn brings pressure defensively yet has struggled to handle it offensively at times. The Huskies are middle of the pack in turnover rate, an outlier for an elite offense. In losses to St. John’s and Marquette, they exceeded 15 turnovers and failed to find an offensive rhythm.
Alex Karaban is the lone player remaining from UConn’s two recent national championship rosters (2023, 2024). If the Huskies cut down the nets, Karaban would be the NCAA’s first three-time champion in more than 50 years, dating back to John Wooden’s dynasty at UCLA. — Shane McNichol
Some coaches just have a way with March, and Hurley has long been on that list. With a stacked roster capable of winning in so many ways, these Huskies seemed bound for at least the Elite Eight. Instead, a questionable closing kick has left them vulnerable to an upset at the hands of UCLA in the second round.
Another year, another season with 20-plus wins for legendary coach Tom Izzo. This year’s Spartans earned their field of 68 invite by adhering to the tenets of Izzology: intense defense, balanced scoring and an everyone-on-the-glass approach. Michigan State plays at a NASCAR-like pace, pushing the ball even after made baskets and relying on elite point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. to make first-rate decisions.
Michigan State ranks 140th nationally in 3-point percentage (34.8%) and attempts an average of just over 21 triples per game, ranking 244th in the country. The lack of spot-up shooters allows foes to run a second defender at either Fears on the perimeter or Jaxon Kohler inside without fear of repercussion. Another wart: MSU plays at such a fast pace that ill-timed turnovers can arise.
During the Izzo era, Michigan State has been as much a part of March Madness as cheerleaders, 5-12 upsets and office pools. The Spartans hold the longest active NCAA tournament appearance streak in college basketball, extending it to 28 consecutive seasons with this year’s trip. The Spartans have also made 10 Final Four appearances, which ranks sixth all time. — Bill Doherty
Quality point guard play and experienced rosters are gold during March Madness. The Spartans have one of the nation’s best floor generals in Fears. He is one of four double-digit scorers on the roster — the others being senior bigs Kohler and Carson Cooper, as well as high-flying junior wing Coen Carr. Michigan State will be a very tough out, and it will take Duke to do it in the Elite Eight.
Darryn Peterson. Probably the most talented player in college basketball this season, Peterson can light up the highlight reels and fill the stat sheet. He’s the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 pick in this summer’s NBA draft. The Jayhawks learned to play without him with his numerous injuries, making them more dangerous with Tre White, Flory Bidunga and Melvin Council Jr. stepping up.
Darryn Peterson. As strange as it sounds, the Jayhawks played better without him in the lineup. During the regular season, they were 12-7 with him and 10-2 without him — including losing four of their final seven games of the regular season. They never quite developed the chemistry that’s needed to win it all with him on the floor.
The Jayhawks have been upset in the first or second round in five of the past six tournaments, with the 2022 national championship being the important exception. Last year they lost to 10-seed Arkansas in the opening round. — David Smale
When things are clicking, the Jayhawks can beat anybody, as evidenced by their victory over previously undefeated Arizona in February (without Peterson). But when they’re not clicking … well, let’s just say they have some curious losses. Let’s split the difference and say they advance to the second round but lose to St. John’s just shy of the Sweet 16.
Bully ball is fun, in theory. In practice, it can get ugly, especially when it is inefficient. St. John’s had the second-lowest 2-point percentage in Big East play, without offering dangerous 3-point shooting. When the putbacks and free throws dry up, the Johnnies go cold. UConn forced St. John’s into 24 straight missed shots en route to a blowout in late February.
Despite being one of the sport’s sharpest coaches, it has been over a decade since Rick Pitino has made the tournament’s second weekend. Yes, that period included a year with a postseason ban, a few years away from college coaching and his time at Iona — but it also includes two disappointing tournaments as a 2-seed. — Shane McNichol
Pitino’s streak of tournament runs without seeing the Sweet 16 ends this year. St. John’s has too much toughness and top-end talent to be knocked off early. Instead, the Johnnies muscle their way to two wins — including a victory over Kansas — before exiting the bracket.
After missing the ACC tournament with a lower back injury, Louisville star freshman Mikel Brown Jr. should be ready to go for March Madness. A presumptive lottery draft pick, Brown is averaging 18.2 points and 4.7 assists. His return will give coach Pat Kelsey a quartet of double-digit scorers, including Ryan Conwell, J’Vonne Hadley and Isaac McKneely.
Brown has had nine games with at least 20 points, the most by a freshman in Louisville history. He loves to watch game tapes of old-school former pros such as Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, John Wall and Rajon Rondo for things that he can add to his own offensive toolbox. — Bill Doherty
What’s in the, er, Cards for Louisville this week? A lot obviously depends on Brown’s back. If he’s a full go, Kelsey’s club could make a Sweet 16 run. If he isn’t, Louisville’s road to the second weekend gets rockier. I was prepared to split the difference — until I saw the draw against dangerous South Florida. The Cards could be an upset candidate.
UCLA’s roster features forward Tyler Bilodeau (18.1 PPG) and tough guards Donovan Dent (13.5 PPG), Trent Perry (12.4 PPG), Skyy Clark (11.6 PPG) and Eric Dailey Jr. (11.3 PPG). Mick Cronin has his detractors, but he can flat-out coach. He has 525 wins and has taken the Bruins to three Sweet 16s and one Final Four (2021).
Cronin is an old-school, defense-wins-championships type of coach, so having a team that struggles to maintain defensive intensity and rebound consistently this year has caused a few eruptions. One of college hoops’ most storied programs, the Bruins have allowed 70.5 PPG and are just plus-0.1 in rebounding margin. The absence, at times, of defense in Westwood has haunted them against quality competition.