Jeff BorzelloMar 18, 2026, 06:50 AM ETClose Basketball recruiting insider. Joined ESPN in 2014. Graduate of University of Delaware.Follow on XMultiple Authors
play1:02Arizona’s NCAA tournament preview Joe Lunardi breaks down Arizona’s NCAA tournament prospects.
play0:30Duke’s NCAA tournament previewJoe Lunardi breaks down the Duke Blue Devils’ NCAA tournament prospects.
play0:44Michigan’s NCAA tournament previewJoe Lunardi breaks down the Michigan Wolverines’ NCAA tournament prospects.
play0:37Florida’s NCAA tournament previewJoe Lunardi breaks down Florida’s NCAA tournament prospects.
play0:36St. John’s NCAA tournament previewJoe Lunardi breaks down the St. John’s Red Storm NCAA tournament prospects.
Arizona’s NCAA tournament preview Joe Lunardi breaks down Arizona’s NCAA tournament prospects.
Duke’s NCAA tournament previewJoe Lunardi breaks down the Duke Blue Devils’ NCAA tournament prospects.
Michigan’s NCAA tournament previewJoe Lunardi breaks down the Michigan Wolverines’ NCAA tournament prospects.
St. John’s NCAA tournament previewJoe Lunardi breaks down the St. John’s Red Storm NCAA tournament prospects.
play0:42UConn’s NCAA tournament previewJoe Lunardi breaks down UConn’s NCAA tournament prospects.
play0:34Purdue’s NCAA tournament previewJoe Lunardi breaks down Purdues’ NCAA tournament prospects.
Much like last season, the true national title contenders have separated themselves into a tier of their own entering the 2026 men’s NCAA tournament.
Arizona and Michigan established themselves in the opening weeks of the season, and Duke definitively joined them after beating the Wolverines in Washington, D.C. in February. And, similar to last season, Florida surged in SEC play and has emerged as a clear threat to repeat its title.
In 2025, the tier break between the favorites and everyone else resulted in all four 1-seeds reaching the Final Four for the first time since 2008. Will that happen again?
A repeat of that is statistically unlikely, but those four teams — the top four at KenPom, Bart Torvik and in the NET with the most Quadrant 1 wins in the country — were the only ones to receive multiple votes to win the national championship in our annual poll of 25 coaches and scouts.
Strengths: Arizona received the most votes to win the title after its run through the Big 12 tournament. The Wildcats are dominant in the paint and on the offensive glass, and they rank in the top five nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Tommy Lloyd has a deep, balanced unit with clutch late-game shotmakers in Jaden Bradley and Brayden Burries.
“When you play Arizona, you have to be ready for a heavyweight fight,” one coach said. “They’re so big, so physical, so strong at every position. … There’s no softness to them. There’s no quit in them. They just keep their heads down and keep playing. It’s like an old-school bully. When it’s over, they’ve just physically ripped you.”
“I just think they have all the components,” another coach added. “They have experience and leadership. Bradley has been to a Final Four. Brayden Burries is a top-20 pick. And they’ve got pros out there. They have a way to win that’s a little bit different, a little unconventional, but they’ve really bought into that. On a one-day prep, with the physicality they play with, I think that’s going to help them a lot.”
Arizona’s NCAA tournament preview
Joe Lunardi breaks down Arizona’s NCAA tournament prospects.
Potential fatal flaw: It’s perhaps the most obvious of any of the 1-seeds, but it hasn’t really hampered the Wildcats this season. They rank last in the Big 12 in 3-point attempt rate and percentage of points from 3-pointers, slotting in at No. 332 overall with just 5.9 3-pointers made per game.
“That’s the biggest thing,” one Big 12 coach said. “Let them take and make as many 3s as possible. You eliminate the paint stuff, but now you’ve got to rebound the missed shots. Long shots means longer rebounds and they’re coming off higher. [Motiejus] Krivas, [Tobe] Awaka, [Koa] Peat, [Ivan] Kharchenkov, Burries, Bradley — they’re all going after the basketball. And they’re doing it with physicality.”
Another Big 12 coach agreed with that assessment, adding that teams need to force the Wildcats to play in the half court, then make them beat you from the perimeter.
“You have to be able to take care of the basketball,” he said. “They’re sneaky defensively. They turn you over and they’re so good in transition. You end up giving 16 transition points and you’re looking at it like, they dominated us eight feet and in and they also scored 16 to 24 transition points.”
Strengths: Coaches and scouts who picked Duke pointed to one reason: National Player of the Year favorite Cameron Boozer. Boozer was the winningest, most decorated high school basketball player in modern history — and his winning ways haven’t changed in college.
“He’s the best player I’ve ever coached against in college basketball,” one ACC coach said. “Nobody has a matchup for him. He does everything. He scores in the post, unbelievable rebounder, can make 3s. Terrific IQ and passer and creator. Handles the ball in ball screens, and literally nobody maybe outside of Caleb Wilson is a good matchup for him in the country.”
Joe Lunardi breaks down the Duke Blue Devils’ NCAA tournament prospects.
Potential fatal flaws: Injuries to Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II pose the biggest questions entering the tournament. Foster suffered a fracture in his foot earlier this month and is unlikely to be available for at least the first two weekends, and Ngongba has been wearing a boot on his foot and hasn’t played since March 2. There’s more optimism surrounding Ngongba, but both being out would set back the Blue Devils.
“There’s a lack of depth now,” one ACC coach said. “Without Ngbongba, it puts them down at six plus Darren Harris. That could hurt, because it’s a mix of not making enough shots to give Cam Boozer and space and then just purely from a numbers perspective. … It’s a bigger problem if Boozer ever gets into foul trouble. He’s going to have to play 35 minutes a game after Siena.
Duke has an elite defense, ranked No. 2 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, but the Blue Devils did show some vulnerabilities in the ACC tournament without Foster and Ngongba. Florida State had huge success against them for the second time this season, and Virginia scored 1.10 points per possession.
“You can put Boozer in isolation situations, especially against guards that can attack off the dribble. Give your guards as much space as possible and make it really hard to sit in gaps,” one ACC coach said on how to beat Duke. “You hope to create advantageous situations. But it also makes him guard every possession. And if he has to guard every possession, you’re hoping he’s worn out.”
Strengths: Michigan appeared to be the prohibitive favorite this time last month, steamrolling every team in its path while looking like one of the most dominant teams in recent memory. Then the Wolverines lost to Duke, lost L.J. Cason to injury, then lost to Purdue in the Big Ten tournament.
“They probably have the most balanced roster,” one Big Ten coach said. “In order to win a national championship, you got to win games in multiple ways. … They can play big, they can play small. They can get in a shootout or they can win a game where they lock down and defend.”
“I hate using this word, but Yaxel [Lendeborg] is something of a unicorn in college basketball,” another coach said. “He’s 6-9, he can guard wings, he can dribble, pass and shoot, he can pick up guards full court. It makes them extremely different. Aday Mara is 7-3 and can clean up. The first line of defense is a long-limbed guard, then the second line of defense is 7-foot-3. They switch everything. Morez [Johnson Jr.] can guard guards. It’s overwhelming.”
Joe Lunardi breaks down the Michigan Wolverines’ NCAA tournament prospects.
Potential fatal flaws: Like Duke, Michigan’s biggest issue entering the tournament is an injury. Cason suffered a season-ending torn ACL in late February, and while he technically came off the bench, he was a game-changer for Dusty May’s team. Cason averaged 8.4 points but was becoming an increasingly important factor as the season progressed, scoring 18 against Northwestern, 13 against UCLA and Purdue, and 14 against Minnesota, impacting momentum when he was on the court.
It also allowed May to mitigate some of Elliot Cadeau’s inconsistencies. There were some games that Cadeau played only 18 to 22 minutes, with Cason jump-starting the Wolverines.
“He was the cheat code for them,” one Big Ten coach said. “They’re losing his shot creation. If you watch in Big Ten play for instance, LJ could score 18 and lift your team. Against Northwestern, he comes in and starts kicking ass and goes on a scoring run. You have to have a guard to go off the bounce and get you a good shot. He was that guard that could go get it for you.”
Wisconsin also might have demonstrated the blueprint on how to beat Michigan, with the Badgers winning in Ann Arbor and then taking the Wolverines to the wire in the Big Ten tournament. In those two games, Wisconsin made a combined 31 3-pointers while Michigan made only a combined 16. The Wolverines can make 3s, but they can be prone to getting outshot and outproduced from the perimeter.
“It’s consistent perimeter shooting and then on the defensive end, that’s the one thing they’re susceptible to,” a Big Ten coach said. “You got to be able to make 3s against them. If they give up 12 3s in a game and they only make seven, which can happen, that’s a 15-point swing against a good team in an NCAA tournament game.”
Strengths: Can Florida go back-to-back for the second time in the past 20 years? Some coaches believe a repeat title is possible. After starting the season 5-4 then losing their first game in conference play, the Gators lost only once over their final 17 games, winning 13 of those by double-digits.