Mark ZinnoMultiple AuthorsMar 17, 2026, 12:33 PM ET
The 2026 men’s basketball tournament is here! Throughout the tourney, Mark Zinno will provide his best bets for each round, as well as his picks for the new ESPN Men’s Tournament Challenge Eliminator game.
The committee loves to take lower-seeded teams’ strengths and match them up with higher-seeded teams’ weaknesses. That’s what you have in this game. High Point averages more than 90 points per game. Of the top six teams in the Big Ten, Wisconsin’s defense is the worst of them. The Badgers are middle of the road in effective field goal percentage defense and 3-point shooting defense. High Point will present all sorts of problems for the Badgers.
Furthermore, do we really believe Idaho’s defense can slow down a Houston offense that is 14th in offensive efficiency? I don’t.
Kentucky is the favorite here based on what feels like only name recognition. This game should be closer to a pick ’em, in my opinion. The Broncos are battle-tested, having played in the West Coast Conference. They have the size to compete inside with the Wildcats, ranking 19th in the nation in offensive rebound percentage. The Broncos take a lot of 3-pointers, and if they even have mild success in making them, it will put a lot of pressure on Kentucky.
The key to this game will be Santa Clara’s ability to force turnovers, as they are 22nd in the nation in turnover percentage on defense. But Kentucky is very good at taking care of the basketball, so the Broncos must win the turnover battle. Santa Clara is also the better free throw shooting team, and that’s something that can be the difference in a tightly contested game.
UCLA has covered five straight games leading into its matchup with UCF in Philadelphia. But the Bruins have struggled outside of the Pacific time zone this season. They have only one win in seven regular-season games, against the cellar-dwelling Penn State Nittany Lions, and have been favored in only two games outside of the Pacific time zone this season (-4.5 vs. Penn State and -1.5 vs. the Minnesota Golden Gophers).
They did manage to win two games at the Big Ten tournament in Chicago, against the lowly Rutgers Scarlet Knights and the Michigan State Spartans, but they needed to shoot 56% from the field and 48% from 3-point range (their sixth-best shooting game this season) against the Spartans to do it. This just feels like too many points for this UCLA team to lay and is a good “sell high” spot on the Bruins.
I keep staring at the numbers, and I can’t envision Queens not being able to score 70 points here. There’s a lot of correlation to every number here. Purdue’s team total is 94.5. Queens is one of the worst defenses in the country, so the Boilermakers’ No. 1 offensive adjusted efficiency ranking should have them scoring at a high clip, even with a pace that’s 324th in the nation. The more Purdue scores, the more possessions the Royals will get.
The Boilermakers’ pace is the only thing that can stop this from going over. In all but one instance when Queens played a team in the top 200 in adjusted efficiency margin, including five matchups against Power 5 schools, the Royals got to 69 points. The one game they didn’t was a 41-point loss to the Auburn Tigers where they scored only 65 and had their second-lowest field goal percentage and their lowest 3-point percentage this season. That’s how this doesn’t get there.
The Jayhawks have a tough draw in the East in a bracket that I think could have a lot of carnage in it. But the likely path of St. John’s and then Duke as their next two games makes it more probable that Kansas might be out early in this tournament.
The Panthers have the nation’s longest current winning streak at 14 games. They play with a ton of pace, and their ball movement allows them to get inside and make easy shots. Defensively, they are excellent on the perimeter, holding opponents to 31.9% shooting from 3-point range. The Badgers are immensely dependent on 3-point shots falling. High Point forces turnovers at the fifth-highest rate in the nation and could frustrate Wisconsin shooters. If there is a prototypical 12/5 upset this year, this is it. I think this is playable down to +9.5.
Texas Tech will be without its best player, JT Toppin (torn ACL), but that shouldn’t slow the Red Raiders down here against the Akron. The Zips’ numbers are a bit of a farce, as they’ve played the same poor competition that the Miami (OH) Redhawks played. Whenever Akron played anyone in the nonconference in the top 125 in adjusted efficiency margin, they lost. So, facing a Texas Tech team that’s 20th in that category suggests they will be overmatched, particularly on the perimeter. The Red Raiders are an elite 3-point shooting team, making better than 39% of them this season. They should feast on a Zips defense that is 253rd in 3-point shooting defense. Akron has been an underdog only once this season, to the Purdue Boilermakers in a game it lost by 18. This isn’t the 12/5 upset spot people think it is. Lay the points with Tech.
Note: Odds by DraftKings Sportsbook and subject to change.
(12) High Point +10.5 (-115) vs. (5) Wisconsin Game time: 1:50 p.m. ET
(2) Houston/(15) Idaho first half OVER 63.5 points (-105) Game time: Approx. 10:10 p.m. ET
(10) Santa Clara +3.5 (-115) vs. (7) Kentucky Game time: 12:15 p.m. ET
(5) Texas Tech -7.5 (-115) vs. (12) Akron Game time: 12:40 p.m. ET
(10) UCF +5.5 (-108) vs. (7) UCLA Game time: 7:25 p.m. ET
(15) Queens team total OVER 68.5 (-120) vs. (2) Purdue Game time: 7:35 p.m. ET