Seth WalderMar 19, 2026, 06:20 AM ETCloseSeth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.Multiple Authors
play1:31Graziano: Malik Willis, Dolphins a ‘perfect marriage’Dan Graziano and Domonique Foxworth weigh in on the Dolphins’ decision to sign Malik Willis.
play0:54Schefter: Houston fortifying its O-line with Braden SmithAdam Schefter reports that OT Braden Smith will join the Texans on a two-year, $25 million deal.
play1:28Schefter: Mike Evans is veteran presence 49ers were looking forAdam Schefter tells Pat McAfee how Mike Evans ended up signing with the 49ers.
play1:00Why Fortenbaugh says the Bears won the DJ Moore tradeJoe Fortenbaugh explains why he believes the Bears won by trading DJ Moore to the Bills.
play1:47Why did the Chiefs let go of All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie?Pat McAfee & Co. try to decipher why the Chiefs have traded All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams.
Why Graz isn’t buying all of the Kyler Murray hype (1:39)Dan Graziano says he believes the Vikings might have signed Kyler Murray to bring the best out of J.J. McCarthy, rather than to make Murray the starter. (1:39)
Graziano: Malik Willis, Dolphins a ‘perfect marriage’Dan Graziano and Domonique Foxworth weigh in on the Dolphins’ decision to sign Malik Willis.
Schefter: Houston fortifying its O-line with Braden SmithAdam Schefter reports that OT Braden Smith will join the Texans on a two-year, $25 million deal.
Schefter: Mike Evans is veteran presence 49ers were looking forAdam Schefter tells Pat McAfee how Mike Evans ended up signing with the 49ers.
Why Fortenbaugh says the Bears won the DJ Moore tradeJoe Fortenbaugh explains why he believes the Bears won by trading DJ Moore to the Bills.
Why did the Chiefs let go of All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie?Pat McAfee & Co. try to decipher why the Chiefs have traded All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams.
Pat McAfee & Co. try to decipher why the Chiefs have traded All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams.
2. Quarterback Malik Willis signs with the Dolphins
4. Offensive tackle Rasheed Walker signs with the Panthers
5. Offensive lineman Elgton Jenkins signs with the Browns
7. Offensive tackle Braden Smith signs with the Texans
4. Jets acquire DT Sweat from Titans for Edge Johnson
5. Lions trade RB Montgomery to Texans for G Scruggs, picks
We went beyond free agent signings, though. I also picked six trades that I felt earned top marks from the team that did the best in each exchange.
To determine each grade, I evaluated deals based on multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary cap implications, player value/age and the context of a team’s short- and long-term outlook. How large is the effect of this decision, and how sure are we it’s a good or bad choice? How does this affect a team’s chance to win the Super Bowl, either in 2026 or in the future?
Check out my favorite free agent deals and analysis on all the top signings, which has been adapted from our original piece.
After J.J. McCarthy delivered only 10 games of subpar play last season with a 35.6 QBR (which would have ranked 27th had he played enough to qualify) after a rookie season lost to injury, the Vikings decided to bring in another quarterback. In all likelihood, they signed their 2026 starter.
Because Murray had $36.8 million fully guaranteed from his contract with the Cardinals, the Vikings can sign him for only $1.3 million, with Arizona picking up the rest of the tab. And on paper, Minnesota just got a huge upgrade at quarterback for the veteran minimum.
Murray is certainly at a low point in his career. A foot injury in Week 5 last season knocked him out of action and resulted in a trip to injured reserve in early November. Once he was eligible to return, the team announced Murray would not play the rest of the year.
But it was just five games! And Murray delivered the ninth-best QBR in the league (63.5) with a plus-2% completion percentage over expected (seventh best) and 4.9% sack rate (seventh best) the season before.
Murray’s peak came in 2021, when he had a 63.2 QBR (seventh best that season), a plus-3% completion percentage over expected (third best), a 13% off-target rate (third best), 7.9 yards per attempt (fourth best) and 8% of his plays went for 2 or more EPA (second best) as he threw almost 15% of his passes 20-plus air yards downfield (third most).
And if Murray can find his form? Then he’s throwing to one of the best, if not the best, wide receivers in football in Justin Jefferson. Between Murray, Jefferson, Jordan Addison and O’Connell, I’m pretty confident they’ll be able to cook up some big plays in the passing game.
The value here is enormous. Had Murray been a true free agent with guaranteed money, what would he have made? I’ve always been a little higher on him than most, but I think Murray would have commanded something not far from the $36.8 million he actually was guaranteed by the Cardinals. Perhaps $30 million? So the surplus value Minnesota is getting is huge.
While the Vikings are lucky he had this guaranteed money with offsets, it’s not sheer luck that he is wearing purple. Because money was not a factor, Murray had his pick of teams since no one could really offer him more financially. And O’Connell’s record of quarterback development speaks for itself.
I also think Minnesota deserves credit for being open to at least the possibility of moving on from McCarthy this quickly by bringing in such a strong competitor. I don’t think every organization would do that, but viewing McCarthy as a potentially sunk cost is the right way for the team to maximize its chances of finding its next quarterback. And yes, there could be a quarterback competition, so we can’t rule out McCarthy just yet.
Sometimes all the dot-connecting before free agency does foretell a signing. Ever since the Dolphins hired Jeff Hafley and Jon-Eric Sullivan — both from the Packers — as their coach and general manager, they have been linked to Willis given their experience with him and Miami’s need at quarterback.
Let’s get the negatives out of the way. Miami is betting on a tiny sample — only three starts as a Packer. Those starts came with an elite offensive designer in Matt LaFleur. Willis didn’t even throw that much in those starts, and his first two seasons in Tennessee didn’t go well. Despite all that, I find Willis to be an incredibly compelling option.
His numbers were outrageous in Green Bay — an 86.3 QBR, 9.2 yards per dropback and a plus-7% completion percentage over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. Those stats would all rank first over the past two seasons among QBR qualifiers if Willis kept up that hot pace in a bigger sample.
Graziano: Malik Willis, Dolphins a ‘perfect marriage’
Dan Graziano and Domonique Foxworth weigh in on the Dolphins’ decision to sign Malik Willis.
And Willis also looked incredible in his Week 17 start against the Ravens, showing off his ability to throw with anticipation and on the run, change his arm angles and, of course, display his exceptional speed.
It is very hard to find a franchise quarterback in free agency, and I’m not saying that’s what Willis is, or even likely to be. But if it were to happen, it’d be a lot like this: a quarterback with draft status who took time to develop, then showed enough flashes in a sample that was small enough to get him to free agency. There’s a real chance here. And the Willis signing doesn’t even cost that much.
At $22.5 million per year, the contract is a bargain considering what Willis could become. But even more than for most deals, the most important part of this contract is the $45 million that’s fully guaranteed at signing. Because if Willis fails, that’s how much Miami will have to pay. And if he succeeds, they’ll end up needing to sign him to a new contract right away anyway.
Even with that guarantee, this is an incredible result relative to the alternatives. There is only one Fernando Mendoza in the draft, and the Dolphins are not going to get him. Instead of trotting out a veteran bridge quarterback, it makes sense to play for the upside. And Willis has tons of it.
The Eagles spent much of last season trying to find a solution at their second outside corner spot. They’ve found their answer for 2026.
With the market seemingly cooler on Woolen than expected (at least, that’s what I’m assuming based on this contract), the Eagles were there to strike with a one-year deal.
Woolen is fascinating because he is not widely considered to be among the game’s top cornerbacks, but his numbers are right there with the best. Over the past four seasons, among outside corners with at least 500 coverage snaps, do you know who allowed the fewest yards per coverage snap? Woolen, at 0.7, one spot ahead of new teammate Quinyon Mitchell and two spots ahead of 2024 Defensive Player of the Year Pat Surtain II.
Ultimately, it’s hard to argue against Woolen’s results. Over a single season, there can be reasons a corner puts up a strong yards per coverage snap result even without playing well. For example, if they play opposite an awful corner on the other side, if their team has a good pass rush or, as with Seattle last season, the unit is incredible overall. But that has certainly not been true for Woolen for his entire time in Seattle.
The Eagles will have a formidable set of corners with Mitchell and Woolen outside and Cooper DeJean in the slot. Good luck, opposing receivers.
This deal is great for the Eagles because it fills a key need, but also because of the price. Woolen was widely viewed as being among the best outside corners in the class alongside players such as Jaylen Watson (who is getting a three-year deal at $17 million per year) and Alontae Taylor (three years at $60 million).
Carolina entered this offseason with a possible need at left tackle after Ikem Ekwonu suffered a patellar tendon rupture in the playoffs that put his 2026 season in question. It’s also the last year of his contract. The Panthers signed Stone Forsythe as an insurance plan already in free agency, but once Walker’s market fell it seemed like they felt adding him was well worth it, too.