Bill ConnellyMar 19, 2026, 09:59 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on XMultiple Authors
play0:43Robson tips Bayern Munich to beat Real Madrid in the Champions LeagueStewart Robson makes his prediction for Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid in the Champions League quarterfinals.
play1:58Can Atletico Madrid pull off another two-legged win over Barcelona?The ESPN FC crew wonder if Atletico Madrid can repeat their Copa del Rey win over Barcelona in the Champions League quarterfinals.
play1:02Robson credits Hugo Ekitike for sparking Liverpool’s big winStewart Robson says Hugo Ekitike was the star performer in Liverpool’s 4-0 win over Galatasaray in the Champions League.
Can anyone stop Arsenal winning the Champions League? (1:50)Alejandro Moreno debates Arsenal’s chances of winning the Champions League. (1:50)
Robson tips Bayern Munich to beat Real Madrid in the Champions LeagueStewart Robson makes his prediction for Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid in the Champions League quarterfinals.
Stewart Robson makes his prediction for Bayern Munich vs. Real Madrid in the Champions League quarterfinals.
Can Atletico Madrid pull off another two-legged win over Barcelona?The ESPN FC crew wonder if Atletico Madrid can repeat their Copa del Rey win over Barcelona in the Champions League quarterfinals.
The ESPN FC crew wonder if Atletico Madrid can repeat their Copa del Rey win over Barcelona in the Champions League quarterfinals.
Robson credits Hugo Ekitike for sparking Liverpool’s big winStewart Robson says Hugo Ekitike was the star performer in Liverpool’s 4-0 win over Galatasaray in the Champions League.
Stewart Robson says Hugo Ekitike was the star performer in Liverpool’s 4-0 win over Galatasaray in the Champions League.
Over the course of a long series of knockout rounds, some rounds serve as table-setters instead of thrillers. The Champions League round of 16 gave us only one tie that went to extra time, and none were decided by one goal. Bayern advanced with an eight-goal advantage over Atalanta, PSG won by a combined six over Chelsea, and even the ties that were undecided after the first leg produced second-leg blowouts — Barcelona 7-2 Newcastle, Sporting CP 5-0 Bodo/Glimt, and Liverpool 4-0 Galatasaray.
We get a revenge attempt for Liverpool against PSG, we get another two matches in maybe the most entertaining series of the last year or so (Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid), and we get royalty versus royalty (Bayern vs. Real Madrid). Plus, we get to find out if Arsenal can grind its way past a Sporting CP team that has proven it can win with either all-out suffer-ball, or 90 minutes of full-on pressure.
And so, with the round of 16 still looming in the rearview, let’s look ahead to April’s quarterfinals.
They didn’t create a ton of great chances on Tuesday (only two of their 21 shot attempts were worth over 0.2 xG), but a thunderous strike from Eberechi Eze put them ahead in the 36th minute, Declan Rice added a second in the 60th, and Bayer Leverkusen were never going to generate enough of a threat to come back.
Even with the early conservatism, Arsenal attempted 27 shots worth 3.4 xG over the 180 minutes, while Leverkusen attempted 19 worth 1.5. The actual result matched up pretty closely.
Maxi Araujo scored just two minutes into extra time, too, and Sporting were finally able to ease off the throttle a bit. They prevented any serious comeback attempts over the next 28 minutes and put the tie away with a Rafael Nel goal in stoppage time. It was as steady a three-goal comeback as you’ll see.
We saw an overly cautious Arsenal forced to penalties two years ago in order to eliminate Porto after losing the first leg, and Sporting can hope for a similar scenario this time around, but you have to squint to find any sort of major weakness in their play this year.
Why Sporting will win: They can keep this close and tense. Sporting’s all-out attack against Bodo/Glimt was incredibly impressive, but they’ve gotten to this stage primarily because of a defense that gives you absolutely nothing. They rank second in the Champions League in xG allowed per shot (0.12), and they’ve kept at least two defenders between shot and goal on 81.8% of opponent’s shots, most of any quarterfinalist.
Prediction: Arsenal 4, Sporting 1. There’s a path to a Sporting upset, but Arsenal’s whole thing is that they create so many paths for themselves.
Robson tips Bayern Munich to beat Real Madrid in the Champions League
The most played matchup in the history of the European Cup/Champions League will add two more matches — the 29th and 30th since 1976 — to the tally. Bayern were Real Madrid’s bogey team for decades, winning nine of their first 13 meetings. But starting with the second leg of the 2011-12 semifinals, Real Madrid have gone unbeaten in the last nine head-to-heads. Bayern will be favored, but does that matter in this competition?
Real Madrid don’t get to play much as underdogs, but it can bring out the best in them at times when they do, especially in the Champions League. Perhaps it’s good news, then, that they’ll get to do it again in the next round.
Why Bayern will win: Because they have too much firepower. After hinting at vulnerability in late January, Bayern have outscored nine opponents 31-9 since the start of February. The defense certainly isn’t perfect, and they would certainly love it if keeper Manuel Neuer were to return from his latest muscle injury by the April 7 trip to Madrid (even though he made a costly mistake in their last knockout round loss there two years ago). But their form is just dynamite.
Club form and defensive fragility — and an injury to Kylian Mbappé — didn’t matter when Manchester City came to the Bernebeu; they extended their run of success against Guardiola’s club all the same. They’ve now lost only once in their last seven City head-to-heads.
They’re also unbeaten in their last nine matches against Bayern, by the way, and they gutted out a late comeback against Bayern in the semifinals just two years ago. Bayern have been the second-best team in Europe this season, behind only Arsenal, but again, does that matter?
Prediction: Bayern 5, Real Madrid 4. It takes a leap of faith picking against the Blancos in this competition, and Mbappe’s likely return could give Real Madrid a boost (though it sounds like Courtois will miss the matchup with a thigh injury), but Bayern’s firepower is ridiculous.
Can Atletico Madrid pull off another two-legged win over Barcelona?
Is there a more fun matchup in Europe right now than Hansi Flick’s Barca against Diego Simeone’s Atleti? In just the last 13 months, they’ve played matches with scores of 4-4, 4-2 (Barca), 3-1 (Barca), 4-0 (Atleti) and 3-0 (Barca); the combination of Barca’s aggressive attack and high defensive line and Atleti’s counter-attacking potential (and the occasional brilliance of Julián Álvarez) makes this an aesthetically perfect matchup.
How Barca advanced: By setting a trap. They baited Newcastle into a track meet, and ran them into the ground.
– First 120 minutes: Newcastle 3 (2.7 xG), Barcelona 3 (2.1 xG) – Last 60 minutes: Barcelona 5 (3.7 xG), Newcastle 0 (0.1 xG)
Raphinha was at his best, scoring two goals with two assists, and Robert Lewandowski scored twice in five minutes as Newcastle’s errors ramped up exponentially. The tempo in the first half of the second leg was absolutely nuclear, and Newcastle’s legs went. Barca’s almost never do.
Barca are willing to allow a goal if it means scoring two, but the defense has been a bit more sturdy of late. And when Pedri is pulling the strings in deep midfield and Raphinha is punishing defenses for focusing too much on Lamine Yamal, they are nearly unstoppable.
Against a new, more wide-open Atletico, they have won four of the last five, scoring at least three goals in three. The one defeat was a lopsided one — 4-0 in Madrid, which eventually eliminated them from the Copa del Rey — but it came without Raphinha and Pedri, and it featured both an own goal and red card from Eric García. It took a lot for that blowout to happen, in other words, and they still nearly came back and won the tie anyway.
Prediction: Barcelona 5, Atletico 3. As fun as Flick-Simeone matches tend to be, Barca also tend to win them.
Robson credits Hugo Ekitike for sparking Liverpool’s big win
A year ago, Europe’s best team over the previous six months (Liverpool) fell to Europe’s hottest team (PSG) in an unimaginably tense round-of-16 tie. A year later, neither label applies, and these teams have been mired in an unending quest for top form. But one of them will reach the semifinals all the same. Can Liverpool get revenge, or was PSG’s brilliant finishing against Chelsea a sign of things to come?
How PSG advanced: With otherworldly finishing. They haven’t been able to pull away from Lens in the Ligue 1 race, they fell to neighbor Paris FC in the Coupe de France, they won just one of their last five matches in the Champions League league phase, and they nearly had to go to extra time to surpass Monaco in the round of 24. But PSG almost literally couldn’t miss in the round of 16 against Chelsea.
– Combined shots: Chelsea 27, PSG 17 – Combined xG: Chelsea 2.8, PSG 2.1 – Combined goals: PSG 8, Chelsea 2
Why PSG will win: Because we’ve seen them do it. They’re the defending champs, they have the reigning Ballon d’Or winner (Dembele) up front, they have the best midfielder (Vitinha) and fullbacks (Achraf Hakimi, Nuno Mendes) in the world, and when they tilt the pitch appropriately, their endless string of attackers — Dembele, Kvaratshkelia, Barcola, Désiré Doué, Mayulu, Gonçalo Ramos, Lee Kang-In — can overwhelm anyone.
Between injuries, lots of personnel shuffling from Luis Enrique and perhaps a few hangover symptoms, PSG haven’t been able to maintain their fifth-gear form as they did this time last year. Hell, they fell 3-1 to Monaco right before the Chelsea tie. But we know what they’re capable of, and it won’t surprise anyone if they roll to another Champions League title from here.