Preview and predictions: Which teams will win in the semifinals?

Charlie CremeApr 1, 2026, 09:00 AM ETCloseCharlie Creme projects the women’s NCAA tournament bracket for ESPN.com.Multiple Authors

play1:26UConn downs Notre Dame to advance to the Final FourUConn is heading to Phoenix for the Final Four after taking down Notre Dame.

play0:42Dawn Staley previews Final Four showdown with UConnDawn Staley joins Scott Van Pelt to preview South Carolina’s Final Four matchup with undefeated UConn.

play0:59Joyce Edwards explains the Gamecocks’ difference in win vs. TCUAfter scoring 24 points with 12 rebounds to help the Gamecocks punch a ticket to the Final Four, Edwards speaks on how a hot fourth quarter got the victory over the Horned Frogs.

play2:12Vic Schaefer describes what’s different for the LonghornsPunching their ticket to a second consecutive Final Four for the first time since 1987, Schaefer explains how proud he is for the Texas women’s basketball program.

play1:19Michigan Wolverines vs. Texas Longhorns: Game HighlightsMichigan Wolverines vs. Texas Longhorns: Game Highlights

play1:40UCLA advances to the Final Four with win over DukeUCLA uses big second half to come back and beat Duke to advance to the Final Four.

Stephen A.’s 1 team that could stop UConn from winning another title (2:29)Stephen A. Smith breaks down whether anyone can take down UConn in the women’s NCAA tournament. (2:29)

UConn downs Notre Dame to advance to the Final FourUConn is heading to Phoenix for the Final Four after taking down Notre Dame.

Dawn Staley previews Final Four showdown with UConnDawn Staley joins Scott Van Pelt to preview South Carolina’s Final Four matchup with undefeated UConn.

Dawn Staley joins Scott Van Pelt to preview South Carolina’s Final Four matchup with undefeated UConn.

Joyce Edwards explains the Gamecocks’ difference in win vs. TCUAfter scoring 24 points with 12 rebounds to help the Gamecocks punch a ticket to the Final Four, Edwards speaks on how a hot fourth quarter got the victory over the Horned Frogs.

After scoring 24 points with 12 rebounds to help the Gamecocks punch a ticket to the Final Four, Edwards speaks on how a hot fourth quarter got the victory over the Horned Frogs.

Vic Schaefer describes what’s different for the LonghornsPunching their ticket to a second consecutive Final Four for the first time since 1987, Schaefer explains how proud he is for the Texas women’s basketball program.

Punching their ticket to a second consecutive Final Four for the first time since 1987, Schaefer explains how proud he is for the Texas women’s basketball program.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Texas Longhorns: Game HighlightsMichigan Wolverines vs. Texas Longhorns: Game Highlights

UCLA advances to the Final Four with win over DukeUCLA uses big second half to come back and beat Duke to advance to the Final Four.

When ESPN’s Way-Too-Early Top 25 for the 2025-26 season came out immediately following UConn’s women’s college basketball championship a year ago, the Huskies, Gamecocks, Longhorns and Bruins were the top four teams. Even looking 12 months into the future, the programs that had just battled in Tampa still felt like they would be the teams headed to Phoenix. And here we are.

For just the second time, the Final Four is a repeat of the previous year. This is also the fifth time that all four No. 1 seeds made it through the bracket. It also happened in 1989, 2012, 2015 and 2018.

The quartet was as dominant as expected after holding the top four spots in the AP Top 25 ranking and Bracketology all season long. UConn, South Carolina, Texas and UCLA, which have a combined record of 143-7, won their Elite Eight games by a record average of 23 points, and each team’s average margin of victory in the NCAA tournament was at least 12 points.

Cinderella never had a chance this March. As a result, April provides us with the biggest brands in women’s basketball on the biggest stage. Here is a look at what needs to happen for each team to lift the national championship trophy Sunday.

What’s on the line? The Huskies are after their second consecutive national championship, which would be their first repeat since 2016 and their NCAA-record 13th overall. They are also two wins shy of their seventh perfect season.

UConn also schemes so well and adjusts to the opponents’ strength. The press can be devastating. And don’t think playing in the Big East, a perceived weaker conference, inflated the Huskies’ stats. Against nine teams seeded No. 9 or higher in this NCAA tournament, UConn won by an average of 25.8 points. The Huskies forced Ohio State and North Carolina into 24 turnovers. Iowa committed 26.

Despite producing the two lowest point totals of the season in Fort Worth against North Carolina and Notre Dame, UConn remains second only to, perhaps, UCLA in offense. The Huskies do top the nation in field goal percentage, points per game and assists. With Azzi Fudd leading the way, shooting 45.5% from 3-point range, the Huskies are second in the country in that category, too. This is the most well-balanced and well-rounded team remaining, and it’s why UConn has won 54 straight games.

UConn downs Notre Dame to advance to the Final Four

UConn is heading to Phoenix for the Final Four after taking down Notre Dame.

UConn’s fatal flaw: How the Huskies respond in a close game. While the sputtering offense made the two games in the regionals tighter than expected, they still weren’t truly close. That is the high bar the Huskies have set. A lack of close games has never seemed to bother past UConn teams, but there is always that question of how a team that hasn’t been pushed late in games will react if it is challenged.

In the only example this season, a three-point win over Michigan, UConn shined. Despite the one-possession final margin, the Wolverines never had a chance to tie or take the lead. Fudd made three huge 3-pointers and four even bigger free throws. KK Arnold had a game-sealing steal. That was Nov. 21 at Mohegan Sun. Will a close game at a neutral site against an even better opponent impact a team that hasn’t been remotely challenged in four months? History says no, but it’s something to watch.

• Freshman Blanca Quiñonez has been the Huskies’ breakout star in the tournament. Her 17.3 points per game through four contests is second most behind Strong’s, and she’s also making an impact with 4.8 rebounds, 2.5 steals, 2.3 assists and 1.3 blocks per game. After an up-and-down regular season — including missing time with a shoulder injury — Geno Auriemma has been surprised with how consistent she has been these past few weeks.

Quiñonez — who grew up in Ecuador and played in a professional Italian league before arriving in Storrs — is the sort of player with whom Auriemma often butts heads. He described her as a combination of former Huskies Diana Taurasi, Svetlana Abrosimova and Nika Muhl: “Very stubborn, very hard-headed, very sure of themselves, won’t back down to anybody anytime ever. … Two words you’ll never hear come out of any of those people’s mouth: ‘You’re right.'”

But that temperament seems to be serving Quiñonez well in big moments in March. “There’s no fear in her,” Auriemma said. “It’s refreshing, because she’s so young and has that [quality]. I really admire that in her.”

“I’m not happy that I’m not able to get her a breather when I think she probably needs one,” Auriemma said. “And not happy that we only got her four shots in the first half. When it gets chaotic for us, she doesn’t touch the ball enough, so we have to be way more intentional now, specifically going to her, and then it’s difficult, because [opponents] know we’re going to her.”

• Auriemma has said this is perhaps the most unassuming undefeated team he has coached and that it lacks the alpha leader many of his other squads had. Outside of his top three scorers, he sees “a bunch of guys who do their little part, and then it all comes together and we win.”

What’s on the line? South Carolina is trying to win its third title in five years and fourth overall.

Why the Gamecocks can win: Last year’s team fell just short for a few reasons. Primarily, the Gamecocks ran into a UConn team that was a bad matchup for them and was playing at the peak of its powers. Another might have been that as deep and well-rounded as South Carolina appeared, it lacked a No. 1 go-to option, a player to turn to for that one big basket.

Dawn Staley previews Final Four showdown with UConn

Joyce Edwards explains the Gamecocks’ difference in win vs. TCU

• Makeer scored in double digits in all four of South Carolina’s NCAA tournament games, averaging 14.8 points. Before that, she scored 10 or more points in only three games the rest of the season — and it hadn’t happened since Dec. 28. But after Makeer scored a career-high 18 points to help the Gamecocks book their ticket to the Final Four, Raven Johnson heaped praise on the freshman guard.

“Gotti is the X factor of this team,” Johnson said. “She’s the silent killer. She’s not afraid. She’s not afraid of nobody. And I think her confidence is through the roof … She went off against TCU. That’s the Gotti we know. And that’s who is going to get us that title.”

• As Charlie described earlier, the Gamecocks have plenty of new faces on the roster as they return to the Final Four. Latson, who is making her first Final Four appearance, has been watching the growth and development of South Carolina’s new core group this season. Her consensus?

“I feel like we’re just a threat from anywhere. It can be anybody’s night,” Latson said. “Like Gotti came out ready to play. She did not play like a freshman. I am super proud of everyone in this locker room. We wouldn’t be where we are without everyone in this group.”

• Round of 64: 87-45 vs. No. 16 Missouri State • Round of 32: 100-58 vs. No. 8 Oregon • Sweet 16: 76-54 No. 5 Kentucky • Elite Eight: 77-41 vs. No. 2 Michigan • Final Four: vs. UCLA, Friday, 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

What’s on the line? Vic Schaefer has now made the Final Four twice with Mississippi State and twice with Texas, but he’s looking for his first NCAA title — and the first for the Longhorns since 1986.

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