Jordan ReidApr 5, 2026, 06:00 AM ETCloseJordan Reid is an NFL draft analyst for ESPN, providing in-depth scouting on the nation’s top pro prospects. Jordan joined ESPN in 2021 and also contributes to SportsCenter and ESPN Radio. He played quarterback at North Carolina Central University and then went on to coach there from 2014-18.Follow on XMultiple Authors
play1:32Riddick: Mendoza showed he’s ‘way ahead’ in preparations for NFLRiddick: Mendoza showed he’s ‘way ahead’ in preparations for NFL
Jordan Reid to McAfee: Ty Simpson a ‘huge risk’ for the Jets (1:18)NFL draft analyst Jordan Reid joins Pat McAfee to break down Ty Simpson’s chances of being selected by the Jets. (1:18)
Riddick: Mendoza showed he’s ‘way ahead’ in preparations for NFLRiddick: Mendoza showed he’s ‘way ahead’ in preparations for NFL
The 2026 NFL draft is right around the corner, as it kicks off April 23 in Pittsburgh. With the predraft circuit nearly complete, it’s time to officially lock in my quarterback rankings. Who are the best passers on the board?
I’ve identified every quarterback who has a good chance to be drafted. This list goes 12 deep and includes info I’ve obtained in my conversations with scouts and front office personnel over the past year-plus. I’ll go through the strengths and weaknesses of all 12 quarterbacks, updates on each passer’s draft stock and give the best team fit for each guy.
Riddick: Mendoza showed he’s ‘way ahead’ in preparations for NFL
Riddick: Mendoza showed he’s ‘way ahead’ in preparations for NFL
Where he needs work: While Mendoza is comfortable within the confines of the pocket, he struggles when forced off his original launch point. When required to move, Mendoza had a 53.2% completion percentage last season. Many of his inaccurate throws came when moved off his original launch point, flushed outside the pocket or forced into scramble situations. When facing true pressure, his completion percentage dropped to 50%.
Mendoza has separated himself as the top passer in this year’s class, but one thing at the next level which will be relatively new is operating from under center. He played out of the shotgun almost exclusively last season, taking only 3% of his snaps under center. Working under center is important in the NFL, as it keeps defenses honest and helps further the influence of play-action on defenders, so Mendoza will have to work on those mechanics.
Height: 6-foot-1 | Weight: 211 pounds Class: Redshirt junior | Projected range: Late Round 1, Early Day 2
Where he excels: After a rough Week 1 performance, Simpson had a hot streak during the middle of his only season as a starter. During an eight-game stretch that included four top-16 ranked opponents (Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee), Simpson threw for 1,954 passing yards, 19 touchdowns and only one interception while completing 71.9% of his passes. Simpson showed that he’s a calm passer with slightly above average arm strength and that there isn’t much that fazes him in the pocket.
There isn’t a throw that Simpson feels that he’s incapable of making, as his toughness and confidence shined in spurts. The son of longtime UT-Martin head coach Jason Simpson, Ty’s football smarts and awareness are easy to see. Simpson was given a lot of pre-snap autonomy and was frequently seen altering protections and plays. His recognition of defenses is well beyond a typical QB prospect with 15 career starts.
Simpson is an underrated athlete whose pocket maneuverability is among the best of any passer in this year’s class. He also can make plays outside of structure. Of his 30 total touchdowns last season (28 passing, two rushing), seven came when Simpson was outside of the pocket. He’s savvy with recognizing and adjusting to pre-snap looks.
Simpson elected to throw at the combine and helped himself after a disappointing finish to last season. He displayed good zip on passes in the intermediate areas, but what really stood out was his touch on deeper throws down the field.
“I wouldn’t draft him until Day 2, but I think he has a chance to go in that 20-32 range,” an AFC area scout said. “It’s because the demand will highly outweigh the quality of supply in this year’s class.”
Where he needs work: Simpson sometimes doesn’t recognize when a play is over. He tends to hold the ball longer than necessary and run around in circles in the pocket while trying to extend plays that are clearly busted. Therefore, he loses yardage with negative plays that could have been avoided by checking down, running or tossing the ball out of bounds.
Simpson’s accuracy suffered down the stretch, resulting in an 11.2% off-target percentage that ranked 63rd in the FBS. And despite his combine long-ball prowess, Simpson completed only 37.3% of his passes of 20 or more air yards in 2025.
Simpson’s lack of starts are also a concern. Many scouts remain cautious due to that small sample size.
Height: 6-foot-2 | Weight: 203 pounds Class: Redshirt senior | Projected range: Late Day 2, Early Day 3
Nussmeier entered the predraft process wanting to show he was healthy. He checked many of the boxes during Senior Bowl week, returning to his fearless anticipatory ways as a thrower. That’s part of his appeal, as Nussmeier’s arm power is below average, but he isn’t afraid to stretch the limits of defenses and trusts his perimeter targets.
Where he needs work: Nussmeier was reduced to attacking primarily the short area of the field last season due to LSU’s scheme of quick-hitters and frequent screen passes. While he got to unleash the occasional go ball, he averaged only 6.4 air yards per target (130th in the FBS). LSU’s running game being ranked 126th in the FBS didn’t help matters, either.
He also has a propensity to be a daredevil, which can be a gift and a curse. Nussmeier has sporadic moments of carelessness because of his confidence in being able to anticipate. Many evaluators feel that Nussmeier has the profile of a middle-to-late round prospect who has the talent, awareness and mentality to stay in the league for more than a decade as a backup and eventually develop into a spot starter.
Height: 6-foot-5 | Weight: 233 pounds Class: Sixth-year senior | Projected range: Late Day 2, Early Day 3
Beck was helped by a more consistent and improved receiving structure around him and looked more like what he showed in 2023 versus 2024. He is a balanced pocket passer who wants to methodically dissect and deliver against defenses. His game is centered around accuracy and decisiveness, so he wastes little time getting the ball out and remains synchronized with progressions. His 74.8% adjusted completion percentage last season was the eighth-highest mark among all FBS passers.
Many teams feel comfortable with the floor that he brings and view him as a strong middle-round option.
“We don’t need a QB, but he’s the favorite to be QB3 off of the board if we needed to take one,” an NFC director of college scouting told me at the combine.
Where he needs work: Teams able to consistently generate early pressure against Beck have been able to knock him off his game. Beck’s off-target percentage when his feet are planted (9.7%) last season was significantly different than when he’s forced to move (21.4%) from his original launch point.
Beck needs to be drafted by a team where he’s the final piece of the puzzle rather than one that lacks surrounding playmakers; he’s more reliant on good infrastructure than most QBs. The Miami offensive line was key, as Beck’s 17.1% pressure rate faced was the lowest in the FBS. He got an average of 2.9 seconds to throw the ball. Beck was able to play within the confines of the offense while not being forced to make plays outside of the scheme. But can he hold up when conditions are less ideal?
He also has plenty of experience, having started 35 games and played in 45 overall. He made a noticeable leap from his sophomore to junior season, increasing his completion percentage from 59.9% in 2023 to 66.5% in 2024. Upon announcing his return to school prior to last season, Allar was immediately expected to be one of the best QBs in this class.
Evaluators were very complimentary of Allar’s performance at the combine in his first post-injury action. The arm strength was easy to see, as the ball came out of his hand with plenty of energy behind it. His accuracy improved as the session progressed.
“I absolutely love that he came out and competed at the combine,” an AFC area scout said. “He’s been a bit of a mystery since the ankle injury, but I’m glad that he came out and proved that he was on the road to being back healthy.”
Where he needs work: Allar’s accuracy regressed last season, as his 12.5% off-target percentage ranked 94th in the FBS, and Allar has moments where he puts the ball too high or low. He tends to make receivers work harder than they should to secure catches.
“The biggest issue is that he looks good against the low- and middle-tier teams, but he just hasn’t had that signature performance any time that he plays against the elite ones,” an AFC assistant general manager said.
NFL franchises fall in love with physical tools. In what is a jumbled up group of QBs in Rounds 3 and 4, Allar has far and away the best physical traits of the bunch, but his accuracy has yet to improve. There likely will be a team that convinces itself that it has the right coaching to help Allar improve his mechanical flaws, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise if he’s drafted earlier than expected.
Where he excels: Payton continues the long-running tradition of decorated North Dakota State passers. After missing the final eight games of the 2024 season with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder, he bounced back in 2025, finishing with 3,188 passing yards, 29 total TDs (16 passing, 13 rushing), and four interceptions.
Payton was the most consistent passer during Senior Bowl week. He showed consistency executing progressions, layering throws, and no hesitancy on tight-window throws over the middle of the field. Even though he’s labeled as an athlete on some draft boards, Payton is a legitimate passer with upside. Because of the progress that he has shown during the predraft circuit, he’s now a favorite middle-round target for teams looking for a project passer with upside.