The New York Knicks have fallen three games behind the Boston Celtics for the 2-seed in the East, and visit the Atlanta Hawks (7 p.m. ET, Peacock), who’ve won 18 of their past 20 games to move up to fifth. New York’s lead over the fourth-place Cleveland Cavaliers has shrunk to one game, with Cleveland heading on the road to face the tanking Memphis Grizzlies Monday night (8 p.m. ET).
Here’s a look at the current and projected NBA playoff picture, the most important games left in the regular season and how the race for the No. 1 pick in June’s draft is shaping up:
Jump to a section: Current playoff matchups Today’s schedule | Friday’s scores Critical remaining games Projected standings | Race for No. 1 pick
The NBA uses a draft lottery to determine the order of the first four picks. All 14 teams that fail to make the playoffs are eligible to move up to the top four. After the order of the top four picks is set via the draw, the remainder of the first round is set in inverse order of the teams’ regular-season records. The three teams with the worst records each have an equal 14% chance of winning the lottery, with the odds for the non-playoff teams decreasing from there.
Among the projected lottery teams, there are multiple trades that could impact picks. The Atlanta Hawks will get the better of the picks from the New Orleans Pelicans and Milwaukee Bucks, with the lesser of the two picks going to Milwaukee. If the Indiana Pacers’ pick falls between five and nine, it will go to the LA Clippers. The Clippers’ own pick will go to the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Orlando Magic will send their pick to the Memphis Grizzlies.
The Utah Jazz will send their pick to the Thunder if it falls outside the top eight. The Portland Trail Blazers will send their pick to the Chicago Bulls if it falls outside the lottery (if they make the playoffs through the play-in tournament). The Washington Wizards’ pick is top-eight protected, and the probability of their selection ending up ninth or worse is extremely low.
Monday tips off the final week of the NBA season, and as far as the playoff picture is concerned, the only team that knows for certain where it will land is the Detroit Pistons, who’ve clinched the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Detroit visits the Orlando Magic Monday night (7 p.m. ET). Orlando is ninth in the East, but still within striking distance of the Toronto Raptors and Philadelphia 76ers, who are tied for sixth. However, ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the Magic a 2% chance of securing the 6-seed and the guaranteed playoff spot that comes with it, meaning Orlando will likely have to survive the play-in tournament to make a third consecutive playoff appearance.
Philadelphia faces its own tall task Monday night, taking on Victor Wembanyama and the San Antonio Spurs (8 p.m. ET), who are coming off an overtime loss to the Denver Nuggets on Saturday. After the loss, the Spurs’ odds of catching the Oklahoma City Thunder for the top seed in the West fell below 2%. Denver, which is tied with the ailing Los Angeles Lakers for third in the West, hosts the play-in bound Portland Trail Blazers (9 p.m. ET). BPI gives Denver a 38% chance of surpassing LeBron James & Co.
1. Detroit Pistons vs. 8. Play-in winner TBD 2. Boston Celtics vs. 7. Play-in winner TBD 3. New York Knicks vs. 6. Philadelphia 76ers 4. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 5. Atlanta Hawks
7. Toronto Raptors vs. 8. Charlotte Hornets 9. Orlando Magic vs. 10. Miami Heat Loser 7/8 vs. Winner 9/10
1. Oklahoma City Thunder vs. 8. Play-in winner TBD 2. San Antonio Spurs vs. 7. Play-in winner TBD 3. Los Angeles Lakers vs. 6. Minnesota Timberwolves 4. Denver Nuggets vs. 5. Houston Rockets
7. Phoenix Suns vs. 8. LA Clippers 9. Portland Trail Blazers vs. 10. Golden State Warriors Loser 7/8 vs. Winner 9/10
Knicks at Hawks, 7 p.m. ET (Peacock) Pistons at Magic, 7 p.m. ET Cavaliers at Grizzlies, 8 p.m. ET 76ers at Spurs, 8 p.m. ET Trail Blazers at Nuggets, 9 p.m. ET
Celtics 115, Raptors 101 Nets 121, Wizards 115 Suns 120, Bulls 110 Bucks 131, Grizzlies 115 Cavaliers 117, Pacers 108 Hornets 122, Timberwolves 108 Magic 112, Pelicans 108 Thunder 146, Jazz 111 Mavericks 134, Lakers 128 Clippers 138, Kings 109 Rockets 117, Warriors 116