Brayan Rocchio walks it off for the Guardians (0:32)Brayan Rocchio hits a walk-off single as the Guardians defeat the Royals. (0:32)
There will be a shift in public reaction to MLB’s ball-strike challenge rule
For the first time since 1950, 10% of plate appearances will result in a walk
A pair of former top pitching prospects will break through
Pat Murphy and Stephen Vogt will each win MOY for the third consecutive year
Ben Rice will finish in the top 10 in AL MVP voting
The Cleveland Guardians pitch their way into the World Series
The Miami Marlins will win the NL East and Sandy Alcantara wins NL Cy Young
As we do every year at this time, we asked our MLB experts to go all-in on one thing that has stood out so far and give us their boldest prediction based on the small sample. They were allowed to pick anything they wanted with two ground rules: It had to be bold, and it had to be something they actually think could hold up for the entire season.
Some of our predictions came in extra spicy — while others were a bit mild — so we’ve taken the liberty of ranking the predictions by their salsa equivalent and breaking down why they landed in each tier.
The current response to the automated ball-strike system is borderline giddy (I like it, too), but it will be more tempered in a few weeks. Why? Batting average once again appears to be spiraling, perhaps worse than ever. Why is that? I don’t know! But walk rates are sky high, strikeout rates keep pushing upward and the shift restrictions continue to have only a modest effect on league-level BABIP.
Sure, pitch challenges are fun, and we don’t know if any of the batting average problem is related to the ABS — some of the early numbers could simply be weather-related. But … we do know the strike zone is a little different with this system and, historically, even small changes to the zone can wreak havoc. What if one of the unintended consequences of the oh-so-wonderful ABS system is to exacerbate an already befuddling problem? I’m just asking questions here. — Bradford Doolittle
One predictable consequence of the ABS, intended or not, is more walks, and it has manifested immediately. Through the first 135 games this season, the leaguewide walk tally was 1,011, 74 more than at the same point last year. On a rate basis, 9.9% of plate appearances have ended in a free pass, the highest at this juncture of a season since 1997 (10.3%).
Expect more of the same. Hitters are more attuned than ever to the value of walking, and most pitchers would sooner nibble than risk damage at the heart of the plate. — Paul Hembekides
Salsa equivalent: Pineapple. If you combined this with the mango salsa-like take above, the outcome would no doubt pair well — but we’re looking for spice here, and this just doesn’t pack the heat.
Two former top-100 prospects will have their breakout seasons on the mound, with each posting 3-plus WAR despite never topping 1.0 WAR before, fueled by pitching-savvy orgs tweaking their arm slots, pitch mixes and pitch grips after they’d already built up their stamina to make starts for a full season.
Salsa equivalent: Three-bean corn salsa. OK, you’ve mixed together a couple of somewhat spicy things and are packaging it as a hot take, but mixing things together inherently brings down the spice of any one ingredient just as your coupling of two pitchers makes nailing either prediction a little less bold.
Yes, a DH can win the MVP. Shohei Ohtani won the National League award in 2024 and would have still won last year even if he hadn’t pitched 47 innings (fellow DH Kyle Schwarber actually finished second).
Healthy again after playing just 48 games last year, Alvarez is off to a blazing start at .353/.540/.794 and looks locked in for a monster season. We know he can put up MVP numbers over a full season: His 174 average wRC+ from 2022 to 2024 was higher than what Ohtani and Schwarber posted last year. A little boost from the Astros winning the AL West will help, as would a slight downturn in production from Aaron Judge. — David Schoenfield
Salsa equivalent: Tostitos chunky salsa. Sometimes you’re just in the mood for a classic. From that predictable first bite through that satisfying-but-not-overwhelming kick, there’s comfort in knowing what you are going to get. But at the end of the day, you aren’t going to win any spice contests by going with a name-brand slugger like Alvarez, who we all know is an MVP candidate if he can just stay off the injured list.
With that in mind: The Brewers almost always perform better than expected and will do so again this year despite having traded Freddy Peralta over the winter, and the Guardians surprise us annually. Pat Murphy and Stephen Vogt will each win for the third straight season. — Buster Olney
Salsa equivalent: Green chili. We’ll admit, we weren’t really sure where to rank this prediction when it first came in. On one hand, we’ve seen this pair win this award twice before, so how bold can it really be? On the other, predicting any combination of things to happen three years in a row is pretty spicy. So how does that remind us of green chili? Well, of all the salsas out there, it’s the green chili that we most often dive into unsure if it’s going to be mild — or surprisingly spicy.
Salsa equivalent: Chipotle. What makes chipotle salsa so great? A unique, distinct smoky flavor with just enough kick that you can’t get it out of your head. And Rice was the one player on this list our experts couldn’t seem to get out of their heads, with multiple hot takers trying to claim the Yankees slugger for their own bold prediction.
These Pirates are for real! Nothing against the solid Brewers/Cubs, but these precocious Pirates are ready to win their first NL Central division since — checks the record books — 1992! (By the way, Francisco Cabrera turns 60 in October.)
Salsa equivalent: Mole sauce. When you think of salsa, you probably don’t think of mole sauce right away. And when you think of October baseball, you definitely do not think of the Pirates, who have not made the postseason since 2015, right away. And you added a little kick by not just predicting Pittsburgh would sneak in as a wild card, instead following up your 2025 Hot Take of the Year win by giving us a worst-to-first division title prediction this year.
It’s perhaps not so bold to predict a division’s winner one year to advance to October the next, but in the Guardians’ case, many continue to write them off — they’re not even in the top two in division odds currently.
Gavin Williams, rein in the walks these next couple of weeks and I’ll make this hot take a clean 4-for-4 on the awards front! — Tristan Cockcroft
But this pick stands among our spiciest because of the level of detail in calling out three — with a chance of a fourth — members of the Guardians winning a major award.
Yes, Burns is in the same league as Paul Skenes and Cristopher Sánchez. Yes, he can be out-stuffed on any given night by Jacob Misiorowski or Eury Pérez. They’ll all have their moment. This is Burns’ time. — Jeff Passan
Salsa equivalent: Ghost pepper. First off, any time we’re ranking things by heat, we’re going to give a few bonus points for picking the guy named Burns — especially one who flashes triple digits on his, wait for it, heater. But the true spice in this picture isn’t what Burns brings, it’s the names you mentioned he would taking out to be named NL Cy Young in his first full season.
Sure, go ahead and laugh. Miami started 5-1? Easy to dismiss. Sweeping the A’s and taking two of three from the White Sox? Big deal. Now, they’ve played the Yankees and are 6-3. Here come the losses! Right? Wrong.
Look, you probably can’t name a single person in the Marlins’ starting lineup, none of whom are over 27 years old. That’s a feature, not a bug. If the New York Mets lose Juan Soto or Francisco Lindor? If the Philadelphia Phillies lose Bryce Harper or Schwarber? If the Atlanta Braves lose Ronald Acuna Jr. or Matt Olson? They’re all cooked. For the Marlins, it’s just “bring on the next guy who doesn’t realize this is supposed to be hard.”
And, as far as pitching goes, Alcantara is 2-0 and has yet to allow an earned run this season. He won the Cy Young in 2022 with a Marlins team that won just 69 games. Surely, the path to more hardware is a lot easier on a team that wins around 90. — AJ Mass
1. Emerson Hancock, RHP, Seattle Mariners: Hancock defied some principles of pitch-design theory over the past two seasons. He dropped his arm slot 16 degrees but kept almost the same movement on his four-seamer while adding 6 inches of sink to his two-seamer. He also has added 4 inches of movement to his cutter without losing any velocity and now has a sweeper averaging just under 17 inches of sweep. This is a full, functional repertoire and makes Hancock look like at least a midrotation starter.
2. Kyle Harrison, LHP, Milwaukee Brewers: Over the past two years (with the Giants and Red Sox), Harrison has raised his velocity 2 mph and raised his arm slot 4 degrees, which has fueled 4 inches of additional lift in his four-seamer. He’s also throwing his slurve 1.6 mph harder and switched up his changeup grip, getting 5.5 inches more sink in part due to 700 fewer rpm on the pitch. Adding a sinker as a fourth option has filled out his repertoire, and his strike throwing is now dialed in despite some problems with that in the past. — Kiley McDaniel
His Baseball Savant page gushed superstar-level red. He hit the ball exceptionally hard, and he didn’t make many bad swing decisions. But the results did not match the process. This year, Rice is hitting the ball as hard as ever with one significant change: He’s pulling the ball more than ever. Last season, Rice pulled 44.4% of his batted balls. This year, that number is up to 61.1%. It’s early and Rice, a catcher until he reached the majors in 2024, has room for improvement at first base, but a left-handed hitter smashing the ball to right field at Yankee Stadium with elite plate discipline is a recipe for a breakout, MVP-caliber season. — Jorge Castillo