Mike ClayNov 13, 2025, 08:08 AM ETCloseMike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Follow on X
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded the Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best projections, rankings, sit/start advice and waiver wire suggestions each week.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
NYJ-NE | WAS-MIA | CAR-ATL | TB-BUF | HOU-TEN | CHI-MIN | GB-NYG | CIN-PIT LAC-JAX | SEA-LAR | SF-ARI | BAL-CLE | KC-DEN | DET-PHI | DAL-LV
Fantasy scoop: You’d be hard-pressed to bench Hall, but he has massive bust potential this week against perhaps the league’s best run defense. New England has allowed the fewest rushing yards and lowest yards per carry (3.3), as well as the second-fewest scrimmage yards and touchdowns (three) to RBs this season. No running back has reached 50 rushing yards against the Patriots in any game.
The potential saving grace here is the passing game, as New England has surrendered the most RB receptions, allowing 17-plus fantasy points efforts to Bijan Robinson and De’Von Achane. Hall, who ranks seventh among RBs in receiving yards, should be viewed as a midrange RB2 this week.
The good news is that Week 11 presents a good matchup (Miami has allowed the fourth-most yards, eighth-most fantasy points and 4.9 yards per carry to RBs), but the bad news is that this is a three-headed committee in a struggling, Jayden Daniels-less offense. This is a situation best avoided, but if Rodriguez is sidelined, Croskey-Merritt (under 6.0 fantasy points in six straight) will have some deep-league flex appeal.
Perhaps McMillan’s bad TD luck will turn (his xTD is 4.2), but in the meantime, his usage is just enough to keep him in the weekly WR3 mix. That includes this week against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the second-fewest catches to receivers this season and that held McMillan to 48 yards in Week 3.
With Godwin and Evans still sidelined, Otton is on the TE1 radar, but he’s not an ideal Week 11 start against a Bills defense that has allowed the fewest targets, catches, yards and fantasy points to tight ends. Travis Kelce (12.6) is the lone tight end who has reached 8.0 fantasy points against them this season.
Fantasy scoop: A large early-game deficit certainly helped his cause, but Woody Marks is fresh off a Week 10 effort in which he played a career-high 78% of the Texans’ offensive snaps. Marks posted a strong 14-63-1 rushing line and added 18 yards on a pair of catches. The rookie has now scored 15-plus fantasy points in three of his past six games, though he’s also posted a pair of sub-3.0-point duds during the span (including in Week 9).
The good news is that Marks has a terrific Week 11 matchup against the same defense that allowed him career highs in touches (21), yards (119), TDs (two) and fantasy points (27.9) back in Week 4. Marks may defer more work to Nick Chubb this week, but he’s the current lead back in Houston and can be considered an RB2 option against a defense that has allowed a league-high 14 touchdowns to RBs.
Fantasy scoop: J.J. McCarthy was finally asked to throw the ball around a bit last week (career-high 42 pass attempts after not clearing 25 during his first three games), which led to a career-high 248 yards (he was under 160 in the first three outings). McCarthy’s efficiency wasn’t great and he’s averaging 6.4 yards per pass attempt while completing an ugly 54% of his passes this season.
Johnson has struggled to generate yardage (18th among TEs with 314) but has made up for it with solid usage near the goal line (five TDs and four end zone targets both rank top six at the position). Johnson is a bit over his skis in the TD department (2.8 xTD), but he’s seeing enough work to hang on the TE1 fringe moving forward. He’d be a stronger Week 11 streamer if Dart (concussion) was healthy, but he’s still on the TE1 radar with Jameis Winston under center.
Rodgers hasn’t been a consistent fantasy option this season, but he has delivered in good matchups and that includes the four TDs and 22.6 points he scored when these teams played in Week 7. Rodgers is a fine streaming option against the defense allowing the highest EPA against the pass.
Metcalf, meanwhile, is averaging 8.8 fantasy PPG during four games he was shadowed. He should, of course, be downgraded and has major bust potential. Note that Cincinnati has been extremely generous to players Turner hasn’t covered (worst defensive EPA), so all secondary skill players get a big boost this week.
Fantasy scoop: Jakobi Meyers made his Jaguars debut in Week 10 and played just 23 of 55 snaps. That put him well behind Parker Washington (47 snaps) and Tim Patrick (38), with Dyami Brown (21) just behind. And that was with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter sidelined.
Meyers, who was targeted three times, is a candidate for a larger workload as he learns the offense, but he can’t be trusted in fantasy lineups until he’s seeing more work. If Thomas is back this week, he’s a WR3, whereas Washington, who has scored 17-plus fantasy points in consecutive games, would be a deep-league flex option and Meyers would belong on benches. If Thomas remains out, Washington is a WR3 and Meyers a flex.
Shadow Report: Part of the reason we’re not too high on Jacksonville’s receivers is the tough matchup against a Chargers defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to receivers, including the fewest to the perimeter and fourth fewest to the slot. Los Angeles has allowed the third-fewest yards and TDs (five) to receivers, as well as the second-lowest catch rate (56%) and third-lowest yards per target (6.8).
Fantasy scoop: Rashid Shaheed made his Seattle debut on Sunday and played 18 of 59 snaps. The low usage was primarily a product of game script, as Seattle built a massive early lead and passed only 13 times in the game. Shaheed ran a route on eight of those plays, which trailed only Smith-Njigba (11) and Cooper Kupp (nine) for most on the team.
The good news is that Shaheed was immediately a primary piece of the passing game, but the bad news is the quick reminder that he’s joining an extremely low-volume pass attack (Sam Darnold is averaging 25.3 pass attempts per game, whereas the Saints averaged 35.0 per game during Weeks 1-9 while Shaheed was on the roster). Shaheed is a strong bet for a boost in volume in a better game script against the Rams this week, but he remains best valued as a boom/bust flex flier.
Fantasy scoop: One quarterback has finished top 12 in fantasy points in each of his past four games: Jacoby Brissett. The veteran passer has delivered exactly two passing TDs and 19-plus fantasy points in all four starts, while avoiding turnovers (one INT) and adding some value with his legs (80 yards and one TD during the stretch).
Jeudy’s big game was somewhat predictable against a Sauce Gardner-less Jets defense, but, by the numbers, the Browns have the easiest rest-of-season schedule for receivers. Jeudy is back on the WR3/flex radar this week against a Baltimore defense that slowed Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison but allowed 23.4 points to Jalen Nailor in Week 10.
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Sam LaPorta, Dallas Goedert
Williams is far from out of the clear, of course, and he’s set up with a tough Week 11 matchup against an Eagles defense that has faced the sixth-most WR targets, but that has allowed only four TDs (second fewest) to the position. No receiver has reached 23.0 points against them in a game this season. Williams should see plenty of Quinyon Mitchell and is best viewed as a WR3/flex.
Lineup locks: Ashton Jeanty, Javonte Williams, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, Brock Bowers, Jake Ferguson
Fantasy scoop: In their first game after trading Jakobi Meyers, the Raiders’ WR usage was as follows: Tre Tucker had 33 routes and three targets, Tyler Lockett 26 routes and six targets, Dont’e Thornton Jr. 20 routes and two targets, Jack Bech seven routes and one target, and Alex Bachman two routes and zero targets. Granted they were dealing with a terrific Denver defense, but the group combined for 16.3 fantasy points, with none of the five reaching 45 yards or 10 points.
This is going to be a situation best avoided moving forward, though there’s some sleeper appeal this week against a Dallas defense that, while healthier and improved during the bye, has still allowed the most TDs (16) and second-most fantasy points to receivers this season. Tucker is the lone Raiders receiver worth considering for your flex.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.