While the Royals will keep center field at 410 feet, they plan to taper in the fences starting in the power alleys, which will be shortened from 389 feet to 379, sources said. The fences will continue on that path, 9 to 10 feet shorter, nearly all the way to the corners, where the 330-foot foul poles will remain. The height of the fence will also be shortened from 10 feet to 8½.
Given the go-ahead, Picollo tasked Dr. Daniel Mack, the Royals’ vice president of research and development and an assistant GM, to consider all the factors and make a recommendation. Mack, who has a Ph.D. in computer science and earned a master’s with a concentration in machine learning, had the benefit of a far more robust set of data than was available even 10 years ago, with detailed information on wind and temperature information capable of being factored in.
The project launched in early May and started with Mack and Alan Kohler, a senior R&D analyst, applying a run value to every fly ball at Kauffman. The goal, Mack said, was to find fence distances and heights that left the stadium with a near-league-average run value on fly balls.
Now, with Sherman’s blessing, it will be. And with Kansas City finally fielding a lineup with legitimate power hitters — in addition to superstar Bobby Witt Jr. and slugging first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, the Royals’ two best prospects, outfielder Jac Caglianone and catcher Carter Jensen, have massive raw power — the instinct to target players whose skill sets fit better in the old dimensions will no longer be necessary.
“I feel like that’s just chasing lightning,” Mack said. “I don’t think that’s smart in general. It’s certainly not smart for a smaller-market team that needs to be adaptable to the personnel that you can acquire.”
“You know, in the end, we might go, ‘You know what? We shouldn’t have done that,'” Picollo said. “But I think it’s a five-year window to give a shot and see if we like how it plays.”