Mike ClayDec 24, 2025, 04:13 PM ETCloseMike Clay is a senior writer for fantasy football and the NFL at ESPN. Mike is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. His projections power the ESPN Fantasy Football game, and he also appears on “Fantasy Football Now” and the Fantasy Focus Football podcast.Follow on X
Why George Kittle ranks No. 1 among TE’s in Week 17 (1:53)Daniel Dopp and Stephania Bell review George Kittle’s Week 16 fantasy performance and injury status ahead of Week 17. (1:53)
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
Additionally, we have folded our Shadow Reports, previously a separate column, into the game-by-game breakdowns here. Using our play-by-play data, we’re able to identify defensive schemes and where each wide receiver and cornerback lines up on each play. By tracking these WR/CB matchups, including potential shadow situations, we can offer the best fantasy guidance each week.
(Editor’s note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Lineup locks: Jacoby Brissett, Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, Michael Wilson, Tee Higgins, Trey McBride
If Sampson remains out, the two would likely play the same roles and would be best left on benches against a Steelers defense that has allowed only seven touchdowns to backs this season. If Sampson returns, he’ll be worth considering as a flex dart throw. He started for Cleveland when Judkins was out in Week 1 and, while he didn’t do much on the ground (29 yards on 12 carries), he did add 64 yards on eight targets.
Fantasy Scoop: Quinn Ewers made his first NFL start on Sunday. The bad news is Miami lost 45-21 and Ewers was held to zero TDs, two INTs and 6.9 fantasy points. The good news is he completed 67% of his passes and racked up a healthy 260 passing yards on 30 attempts (8.7 YPA). Miami’s offense was effective enough to allow a strong showing from Achane (18.0 fantasy points), as well as solid production from Jaylen Wright (12.3), Waddle (12.2) and Malik Washington (10.2).
Granted, the game was against one of the league’s shakiest defenses (Bengals), but Week 17 presents a matchup against a Buccaneers defense that has been very generous in fantasy. Achane remains a lineup lock, as does Waddle, who put up 72 yards on nine targets (31% team share) in Ewers’ debut. Darren Waller (3-40-0 on five targets last week) is a deep-league streaming option against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed 10 touchdowns and the seventh-most TE fantasy points.
That drought includes Breece Hall, who has managed a mere 143 yards and zero touchdowns on 46 touches during the span (6.1 PPG), and is no more than a fringe RB2 against a Patriots defense that has allowed the third-lowest yards per carry (3.9) and third-fewest fantasy points to backs this season. No other Jets should be in lineups, with Mitchell the closest to flex value.
Fantasy Scoop: Kenneth Walker III is fresh off his best fantasy outing of the season, having totaled 164 yards and one TD on 14 touches. Walker’s 25.4 fantasy points bring him to four games with 18-plus points this season, though he has been held to 13.1 or fewer in each of his other 11 games (7.7 average). Walker remains in a full-on committee with Zach Charbonnet, which has limited him to 12.7 carries and 2.1 targets per game.
Charbonnet has operated as the primary goal line back, which has helped him to nine touchdowns and 11 carries inside the 5-yard line, compared to three TDs and five carries inside the 5 for Walker. Walker’s role breeds inconsistent fantasy output, but the good news is a plus matchup this week against a Carolina defense that has allowed 4.8 yards per carry (sixth highest) and the eighth-most fantasy points to backs. Walker is on the RB2 radar.
Fantasy Scoop: When Jaxson Dart retires some day, Week 16 of the 2025 season may go down as the least productive game of his NFL career. The rookie played the entire game, but was held to 7-of-13 for 33 yards, zero TDs and one INT, adding only 7 yards on two carries. Dart finished with 0.02 fantasy points after averaging 21.8 during his first nine starts.
The dud is alarming and makes him a risky play here in Week 17, but it’s worth noting it came against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to QBs this season. Life should be a bit easier this week against a Raiders defense that has allowed the sixth-highest EPA to opposing passing games. Dart remains in the QB1 discussion, as his entire body of work has been exceptional from a fantasy standpoint, but he’s no longer a safe starting option.
Lineup locks: Matthew Stafford, Bijan Robinson, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Drake London, Kyle Pitts Sr.
Shadow Report: Upgrade Rams receivers against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the second-most fantasy points to the position over the past eight weeks, including the second most to the perimeter. The Falcons have allowed 18 touchdowns to receivers (fourth most) and McMillan, Smith-Njigba and Mitchell have each cleared 24 points against them since Week 11. Nacua is positioned for another elite game and, with Davante Adams still out, Konata Mumpfield is a Week 17 deep sleeper.
All of this advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I’ll often mention “shallow” or “deep” leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. “Matchup” is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
Fantasy Scoop: With Bam Knight done for the season, it was Michael Carter who took over as Arizona’s lead back last Sunday. Carter soaked up 11 carries and a pair of targets on 30 snaps, compared to five carries and one target on 17 snaps for Emari Demercado and six carries and zero targets on nine snaps for Corey Kiner. The overall ground game was effective (combined 127 yards on 22 carries), but none of the backs found the end zone, caught a pass or cleared 6.5 fantasy points. We should expect Carter to continue leading the committee, which positions him as a flex option against a Bengals defense that has allowed the most yards and fantasy points, as well as the second-most touchdowns (20), to running backs this season.
Shadow Report: Marvin Harrison Jr. is a candidate to see DJ Turner shadow coverage this week. Turner has shadowed often this season and has done very well in those spots. The 12 receivers he has shadowed have averaged 8.4 fantasy PPG, with only two reaching 13 points. After a slow start, the Bengals have also shown well against receivers overall, having allowed them the fourth-fewest fantasy points. Only seven receivers have reached 16.0 fantasy points against the Bengals this season and five of them came prior to Week 6. Downgrade the Arizona passing game, especially Harrison.
Fantasy Scoop: Quinshon Judkins (leg) is done for the season. The identity of his replacement will depend on health, as fellow rookie Dylan Sampson is the logical fill in but he has missed the past two games with a hand injury. Following Judkins’ departure on Sunday, Trayveon Williams (three carries and four targets on 20 snaps in the game) and Raheim Sanders (11 carries and one target on 19 snaps) held it down. Sanders (46 yards on 12 touches) was the lead ball carrier, with Williams (55 yards on seven touches) the preferred passing-game option.
Fantasy Scoop: With Devin Neal (IR) out of the mix last week, the Saints turned to a backfield committee led by Taysom Hill. Hill had a busy afternoon as a passer (38-yard TD on his lone attempt), rusher (42 yards on a team-high 12 carries) and receiver (a 6-4-36-0 receiving line). Hill played 34 snaps, which trailed Audric Estime (44), though Estime registered only 36 yards on eight touches (Evan Hull played 16 snaps and totaled 3 yards on five touches). Hill’s heavy utilization and TE eligibility is enough to place him on the TE1 radar this week, assuming Alvin Kamara remains out. There’s obvious risk here considering Hill has cleared 6.1 fantasy points in just one of 11 games this season, but he also wasn’t tasked with such a hefty role prior to Sunday.
Fantasy Scoop: Parker Washington exploded for career highs in yardage (145) and fantasy points (26.5) while also finding the end zone against the Broncos on Sunday. Washington has now hit for 17-plus fantasy points in four of his past seven games, though he has fallen short of 9.0 points in the other three games. Washington took advantage of Pat Surtain II (who shadowed Brian Thomas Jr.) and Riley Moss (mainly on Meyers) keeping a lid on the team’s top two receivers, with the duo combining for only 63 yards on 11 targets.
Fantasy Scoop: Brady Cook has handled a majority of the Jets’ quarterback snaps in three straight games and the results have not been very good. Cook has attempted 30-35 passes in each game, but has been in the 163-188 passing yardage range in all three, with a total of just one touchdown pass and six INTs while averaging 5.4 yards per attempt. The offensive struggles have crushed the fantasy output of the team’s skill players, as Adonai Mitchell’s 17.4 points in Week 15 was the only instance of a Jets player clearing 13.5 points during the three games.
Shadow Report: Tetairoa McMillan and Carolina’s other receivers should be downgraded against a Seattle defense that has allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points to receivers, but more notably the fourth-fewest points to the perimeter (McMillan aligns on the perimeter 80% of the time). Even after last week’s rough showing against Nacua, the Seahawks have allowed the sixth-fewest yards, lowest yards per target (6.4) and third-lowest catch rate (57%) to receivers. Only two wideouts have reached 15 fantasy points against them since Week 7. Nacua’s big game gives McMillan some hope for a few splash plays, but expectations should be held in check.