Who are Joe Lunardi’s latest projected 1- and 2-seeds in the NCAA tournament? (1:45)Joe Lunardi offers his latest bracketology information, including what Kansas’ loss to Cincinnati means. (1:45)
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? Teams have roughly three weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their cases. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
Let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Michigan Wolverines Purdue Boilermakers Illinois Fighting Illini Nebraska Cornhuskers Michigan State Spartans
Arizona Wildcats Houston Cougars Iowa State Cyclones Kansas Jayhawks Texas Tech Red Raiders BYU Cougars
The Wildcats had moved into “lock” territory in the forecast models after defeating Tennessee on Feb. 7 for their eighth win in nine games, then three consecutive losses — to Florida, Georgia and Auburn — dipped their odds to around 95% in the model consensus. Still strong, but enough to warrant further Bubble Watching. Their résumé featuring five Quadrant 1 wins, enough to rank around the top 30 nationally in our résumé average, is still around sixth best in the SEC, which projects to send as many as 11 teams in the latest Bracketology. Despite the losses to a trio of tough foes, they’re not quite in the danger zone. A bigger concern is that they have one of the nation’s toughest remaining schedules, with three of four games against Quadrant 1 foes (two against Quadrant 1A).
The Aggies’ chances had been tumbling after they dropped four straight, downgrading them from “should be in” to “work to do.” But a remarkable comeback against Ole Miss followed by a solid victory at Oklahoma on Saturday provided a pair of important wins for their tournament hopes. The Aggies are still 10th in the résumé ranking average out of what’s looking like a 10-bid SEC, putting them right on the bubble, but notching a fourth Quadrant 1 win helps raise their at-large profile — and their consensus odds, which now sit at 79%.
Texas’ five-game winning streak came to an end Saturday at Georgia. Going into the day, the consensus forecast gave the Longhorns better than an 80% at-large chance — up from 45% three weeks ago — and the 91-80 road loss dropped them down to a consensus 70% at-large probability. They still have more Quadrant 1 wins than newly promoted Texas A&M, though. They’re also ninth in the conference in résumé rankings (borderline top 40 nationally), and better than that in the predictive rating (consistently around the top 35). The loss to Georgia was just the first leg of a tough remaining slate, with three of their final four regular-season contests against Quadrant 1 opponents, which helps explain why their odds aren’t higher.
After winning four of its previous five games, Missouri couldn’t close a second-half gap as a big underdog at Arkansas on Saturday. The Tigers still rank just 11th among SEC teams in the résumé average (borderline top 50 nationally), a tough spot to be in with the conference projected for 10-11 tournament entries. They do have a trio of Quadrant 1-A wins over Florida, Kentucky and Vanderbilt. And in many ways, they are the anti-Auburn: They have a much better record (18-9 vs. 15-12) against a much easier schedule (66th hardest vs. fourth). While the top models and résumé composites favor Auburn mathematically, Missouri still has a case from a W-L perspective.
After a run of six straight wins, the Hawkeyes have now lost three of four, running out of gas in the second half at Wisconsin on Sunday. The exception to that four-game stretch was a Quadrant 1A win over Nebraska last Tuesday (Iowa’s second such win this season). The Hawkeyes’ résumé also still sits in the low 30s nationally — in addition to being borderline top 25 in our average of predictive ratings — so their tournament hopes are not shaky. However, their remaining schedule is no breeze, jumping from 67th to 14th nationally (third hardest in the Big Ten), according to the BPI. Taking care of business as a favorite over Ohio State and Penn State, then knocking off either Michigan or Nebraska to close the regular season, would be a good stretch run formula.
A stretch of five wins in six games had pushed the Bruins’ consensus at-large chances near 80% until that hot streak cooled off in a recent tour of Michigan, with the Wolverines and Spartans thumping UCLA in consecutive games. Desperate for a win hosting No. 10 Illinois on Saturday, the Bruins won in overtime on Donovan Dent’s Tyus Edney-style coast-to-coast layup. It was their third Quadrant 1 win of the season (second Quad 1A), their résumé still ranks in the 40s nationally, and their predictive rating is better than their résumé gives them credit for. Even if the Big Ten gets 10 bids, it’s still not totally clear that the Bruins would be in line for one of the last of those, but beating the Illini helped raise their consensus at-large odds back up to 85%, which lands them here for now.
A recent three-game win streak had helped pad USC’s bubble case, but losses to Ohio State, Illinois and Oregon — the latter of which came despite leading by six points with 1:10 to play — coupled with additional results across the Big Ten have sliced the Trojans’ at-large chances to just 25%. They still have a case to secure one of the Big Ten’s last entries with the 10th-best résumé ranking in what’s tracking to be a 10-bid conference. But the models are less bullish, because USC is outside the top 50 of the predictive ratings, with a trio of Quadrant 1 games remaining. For a team that needs every win, letting the Oregon game slip away will sting.
Just when the Mustangs took a hit in our projections by faltering late as road favorites at Syracuse last week, they rebounded with back-to-back wins, including Saturday’s 24-point blowout over Boston College. They have been neck and neck with Miami (and now Clemson) recently, fighting to be sixth best in what could be an eight-bid ACC. But SMU has elevated its consensus at-large chances to 94%, and all three teams are well clear of Virginia Tech and Cal — their closest bubble rivals within the conference.
Clemson has gotten ice-cold at the wrong time. The Tigers had been an ACC “lock” since Bubble Watch launched on Feb. 3, with a 97% or higher at-large probability in the forecast every day for the past three weeks — until Saturday. They fell below that threshold with their fourth loss in a row, this time to Quadrant 3 Florida State. They still rank in the low-to-mid 30s nationally on résumé (no worse than eighth in the ACC) and their consensus chances are still around 90% despite the slump. But they have been downgraded as a result, trending lower in the conference’s pecking order according to the odds.
The Hurricanes have been on a roll in ACC play with three résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State and Virginia Tech, but they missed the chance to add another on Saturday when they blew an early double-digit lead at Virginia to lose on a three-shot foul at the end. Their at-large chances had pulled roughly even with SMU, and they went into the weekend boasting the superior résumé quality (seventh in the ACC vs. eighth for the Mustangs), though the Hurricanes’ consensus model at-large chances still sit in the mid-80% range. The BPI has them facing a slightly harder remaining schedule than Clemson, but that means two more chances to score Quadrant 1 wins (they already have four). With most projections calling for the ACC to have eight bids, the Canes remain in good shape to snag one.
Regrouping from the disappointment of Tuesday’s loss to Miami, the Hokies bested Wake Forest by 19 on Saturday to keep their bubble case in play. They do have ammunition in their battle to be possibly the last ACC team called to the brackets, including three Quadrant 1 wins and a résumé rating that is borderline top 50. But their conditional at-large chances are still south of 30%, suggesting they are in serious limbo if they don’t knock off North Carolina and/or Virginia as well in the next couple of weeks.
Back-to-back losses to Clemson and Syracuse splashed cold water on Cal’s hopes, but victories over Boston College and Stanford got the Golden Bears moving back in the right direction. They still sit outside the top 50 on the résumé ranking, but they also have four Quadrant 1 wins and face the ACC’s second-easiest remaining schedule. That doesn’t leave many more signature-win chances, though. And with a consensus at-large probability floating barely above 20%, the Bears certainly have work to do.
The Billikens are a great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm and a cast of characters that includes bespectacled big man Robbie Avila, tracking for the best SRS in program history. After last Tuesday’s loss at Rhode Island injected some mild doubt into their at-large bona fides, Saint Louis overcame what felt like a double-digit deficit for most of the game to roar back and beat bubble rival VCU by 13 in Friday night’s feisty contest. The Billikens ranks 26th nationally in the résumé rankings and 24th in the predictive ratings, so it’s still hard to see this group not making the field as an at-large team if necessary. With their statement win over VCU out of the way, it should be clear sailing ahead.
Despite trailing as halftime approached Saturday night, the Gaels handled Washington State to push their winning streak to six. They haven’t missed the NCAA tournament since 2022, so it’s tough to imagine that streak coming to an end, with the Gaels sitting 31st in the résumé rankings. Yet they’re here because they carry a consensus 88% at-large probability — not quite a “lock” — likely driven by the perennial question of how many WCC teams the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. One possible trouble spot: While their résumé is better than Santa Clara’s, the Gaels lost the first of the teams’ two head-to-head matchups. The Gaels also don’t have any Quadrant 1 wins — and likely won’t, unless they get revenge for their loss at Gonzaga when the two meet again on Feb. 28 in Moraga. But first, the rematch with Santa Clara awaits.