Mizzou’s T.O. Barrett recaps career-night against No. 22 Tennessee (2:07)Barrett reflects on setting a career-high 28 points while being bombarded by his Tiger teammates and says their momentum is building as they approach the postseason. (2:07)
The 2026 men’s NCAA tournament is rapidly approaching, which means the question top of mind for many fans is: Will your team be in or out? Teams have roughly three weeks until Selection Sunday to strengthen their cases. Until then, we’re here to track how each team on the “bubble” of the bracket is trending.
Teams beyond these categories would need to outperform expectations or benefit from chaos. There is little — though not zero — chance any team not listed here will make the Big Dance without winning its conference tournament.
Now let’s go conference by conference — in order of which project to have the most NCAA tournament bids — to rank the teams in each category based on their chances to secure an at-large bid.
Michigan Wolverines Purdue Boilermakers Illinois Fighting Illini Nebraska Cornhuskers Michigan State Spartans Wisconsin Badgers
Arizona Wildcats Iowa State Cyclones Houston Cougars Kansas Jayhawks Texas Tech Red Raiders BYU Cougars
Three consecutive losses — to Florida, Georgia and Auburn — meant we had to downgrade Kentucky from a “lock” recently, but the Wildcats got back to business with a win at South Carolina on Tuesday. Their résumé features five Quadrant 1 wins, enough to rank around the top 30 nationally in our résumé average, and is still comfortably sixth best in the SEC, which projects to send as many as 11 teams in the latest Bracketology. Even with 10 losses, it helps that seven came to Quadrant 1A foes. A bigger concern is that they still have one of the nation’s toughest remaining schedules, with all three games against Quadrant 1 foes (including a Quadrant 1A in Florida).
The Aggies’ chances had been tumbling after they dropped four straight, downgrading them from “should be in” to “work to do.” But a remarkable comeback against Ole Miss followed by a solid victory at Oklahoma on Saturday provided a pair of important wins for their tournament hopes. The Aggies are still 10th in the résumé ranking average out of what’s looking like at least a 10-bid SEC, putting them right on the bubble, but notching a fourth Quadrant 1 win helps raise their at-large profile — and their consensus odds, which now sit at 79%.
Texas’ five-game winning streak came to an end Saturday at Georgia. Going into the day, the consensus forecast gave the Longhorns better than an 80% at-large chance — up from 45% three weeks ago — and the 91-80 road loss dropped them down to a consensus 70% at-large probability. They still have more Quadrant 1 wins than newly promoted Texas A&M, though. They’re also ninth in the conference in résumé rankings (borderline top 40 nationally), and better than that in the predictive rating (consistently around the top 35). The loss to Georgia was just the first leg of a tough remaining slate, with three of their final four regular-season contests against Quadrant 1 opponents, which helps explain why their odds aren’t higher.
The Tigers stopped their five-game losing streak with Saturday’s dramatic victory over Kentucky, but the relief only turned out to be temporary — they lost again at Oklahoma on Tuesday to cast more doubt on their tournament outlook. They still have a fascinating case: Although all but one of their recent losses came against Quadrant 1 opponents, they have five Quadrant 1 wins against the nation’s fourth-most difficult schedule per the BPI, and remain top-40 in the national résumé ranking average. But those mounting losses do matter, and teams most similar to Auburn have tended to miss out on an at-large bid more often than not. Whatever happens, they will be an interesting litmus test for what the committee values.
After a run of six straight wins, the Hawkeyes have now lost three of four, running out of gas in the second half at Wisconsin on Sunday. The exception to that four-game stretch was a Quadrant 1A win over Nebraska last Tuesday (Iowa’s second such win this season). The Hawkeyes’ résumé also still sits in the low 30s nationally — in addition to being borderline top 25 in our average of predictive ratings — so their tournament hopes are not shaky. However, their remaining schedule is no breeze, jumping from 67th to 14th nationally (third hardest in the Big Ten), according to the BPI. Taking care of business as a favorite over Ohio State and Penn State, then knocking off either Michigan or Nebraska to close the regular season, would be a good stretch run formula.
After consecutive losses on their Michigan tour halted their momentum — five wins in six games — the Bruins have bounced back. Saturday, they beat visiting No. 10 Illinois in overtime on Donovan Dent’s coast-to-coast layup, then took down crosstown bubble rival USC by 19 behind Dent’s 30 points on Tuesday. They now have three Quadrant 1 wins on the season (two Q1-A) and their résumé ranks borderline top-40 nationally, converging with a predictive rating that has been better than their résumé indicated for most of the year. Even if the Big Ten only gets 9 bids, the Bruins would appear to be in line for one of the last of those — they rank eighth on the conference’s résumé list — and their consensus at-large odds are now 91% in the forecast models.
After a run of five wins in six games, Indiana has now lost three straight to Illinois, Purdue and Northwestern, shaving the Hoosiers’ conditional at-large probability down to the 60% range. Their portfolio can stand up next to other bubble teams — they rank mid-40s in the national résumé average, no worse than 10th among the Big Ten in what’s looking like a nine-bid conference — and they remain among the top 40 in the predictive metrics. But they just lost their most winnable remaining game to Northwestern and are likely to enter the Big Ten tournament in limbo.
Just when the Mustangs took a hit in our projections by faltering late as road favorites at Syracuse last week, they rebounded with back-to-back wins, including Saturday’s 24-point blowout over Boston College. They have been neck and neck with Miami (and now Clemson) recently, fighting to be sixth best in what could be an eight-bid ACC. But SMU has elevated its consensus at-large chances to 94%, and all three teams are well clear of Virginia Tech and Cal — their closest bubble rivals within the conference.
The Hurricanes have been on a roll in ACC play lately, adding to their recent résumé-boosting victories over North Carolina, NC State and Virginia Tech with another Quadrant 1 win over Florida State on Tuesday. Their at-large chances are now above those of Clemson and not far from SMU’s, though all three teams are bunched closely together in the mid-30s of the national résumé quality ranking — the trio makes up Nos. 6-8 in the ACC in that regard, with a big gap over the rest of what projects to be non-tournament teams in an eight-bid conference. The BPI has Miami projected to win nearly 24 games now, so the Canes are in good shape.
Clemson has gotten ice-cold at the wrong time. The Tigers had been an ACC “lock” since Bubble Watch launched on Feb. 3, with a 97% or higher at-large probability in the forecast every day for the past three weeks — until Saturday. They fell below that threshold with their fourth loss in a row, this time to Quadrant 3 Florida State. They still rank in the low-to-mid 30s nationally on résumé (no worse than eighth in the ACC) and their consensus chances are still around 90% despite the slump. But they have been downgraded as a result, trending lower in the conference’s pecking order according to the odds.
Regrouping from the disappointment of Tuesday’s loss to Miami, the Hokies bested Wake Forest by 19 on Saturday to keep their bubble case in play. They do have ammunition in their battle to be possibly the last ACC team called to the brackets, including three Quadrant 1 wins and a résumé rating that is borderline top 50. But their conditional at-large chances are still south of 30%, suggesting they are in serious limbo if they don’t knock off North Carolina and/or Virginia as well in the next couple of weeks.
Back-to-back losses to Clemson and Syracuse splashed cold water on Cal’s hopes, but victories over Boston College and Stanford got the Golden Bears moving back in the right direction. They still sit outside the top 50 on the résumé ranking, but they also have four Quadrant 1 wins and face the ACC’s second-easiest remaining schedule. That doesn’t leave many more signature-win chances, though. And with a consensus at-large probability floating barely above 20%, the Bears certainly have work to do.
Despite trailing as halftime approached Saturday night, the Gaels handled Washington State to push their winning streak to six. They haven’t missed the NCAA tournament since 2022, so it’s tough to imagine that streak coming to an end, with the Gaels sitting 31st in the résumé rankings. Yet they’re here because they carry a consensus 88% at-large probability — not quite a “lock” — likely driven by the perennial question of how many WCC teams the NCAA can accommodate for the Dance after Gonzaga. One possible trouble spot: While their résumé is better than Santa Clara’s, the Gaels lost the first of the teams’ two head-to-head matchups. The Gaels also don’t have any Quadrant 1 wins — and likely won’t, unless they get revenge for their loss at Gonzaga when the two meet again on Feb. 28 in Moraga. But first, the rematch with Santa Clara awaits.
The Billikens are a great story in their second season with Josh Schertz at the helm and a cast of five double-figure scorers led by bespectacled big man Robbie Avila, tracking for the best SRS in program history. After they came back to beat bubble rival VCU by 13 points Friday, they turned around and suffered their ugliest loss of the year: by 15 points at Dayton. The positives are that Saint Louis still ranks top 30 nationally in the résumé rankings and even better in the predictive ratings, so it’s hard to see this group not making the field as an at-large team if necessary. But there will be lessons to learn from Tuesday’s loss.