Jeremy WooMar 5, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseNBA draft analyst and writer Joined ESPN.com in 2023 Covered the NBA and NBA draft for Sports Illustrated from 2015-2023Follow on XMultiple Authors
play2:00Seth Greenberg: Cam Boozer is NBA-readySeth Greenberg tells Stephen A. Smith why he’s so impressed by Cam Boozer’s mentality.
SVP’s big question surrounding Darryn Peterson (0:53)Scott Van Pelt wonders what Kansas is going do with Darryn Peterson due to the vagueness surrounding his availability. (0:53)
Seth Greenberg: Cam Boozer is NBA-readySeth Greenberg tells Stephen A. Smith why he’s so impressed by Cam Boozer’s mentality.
The quality of a historically good freshman class has kept excitement high around the 2026 NBA draft, as reflected by the behavior of multiple teams doing everything in their power to lose games and pivot toward improved lottery odds.
In 2017, a record 11 freshmen were selected among the 14 lottery picks. This year’s group will challenge and potentially break that mark: The nine prospects atop ESPN’s rankings are all freshmen, with five others inside the top 20 within striking distance. All of them, save for big man Hannes Steinbach (Washington), are projected to make the NCAA tournament, making this one of the most prospect-heavy fields ever.
Whether you’ve followed the draft all year or you’re just now tuning in for March, here’s where the top freshman prospects stand, what they have left to gain in the final stretch of the season and the biggest questions surrounding their draft profile.
There aren’t many holes in Peterson’s skill set, however. Scouts with whom I’ve spoken haven’t expressed major questions around his passing or explosiveness, traits they feel have been limited by his role in Kansas’ offensive scheme and inconsistent health. The nature of the situation has made things much more interesting than expected.
Peterson has played 30-plus minutes in four straight games, but he has shot just 32% in that stretch. If he can get right, a strong, healthy March would serve as a reminder of why much of the league was head over heels for him entering the fall. The best way for Peterson to reclaim his own narrative is by playing well.
On his best nights, Dybantsa very much looks the part of a No.1-caliber prospect, presenting as a strong option atop the draft and potentially a more reliable, safe choice based on the way Peterson’s season has gone. Because of his size and physical gifts, many NBA scouts believe Dybantsa’s two-way upside is the highest in the class.
The race for No. 1 is shaping up as an eye-of-the-beholder decision for whichever team wins the lottery. If Dybantsa continues to play at a high level and can position himself as a safer alternative to Peterson with similarly high upside, it should help his case. NBA teams are splitting hairs behind the scenes.
Although Boozer is typically described as a post player, it’s his ability to face the basket, make quick decisions, make plays for teammates and stretch the floor (40.4% from 3) that make him a special offensive engine. Much of his value actually comes on the perimeter, where he’s devastating in two-man actions and has the strength to bully mismatches. The deeper Boozer can carry the Blue Devils into March, the longer he’ll make the argument for himself as the safest pick in the draft.
Boozer is having the best season of the top three prospects, and he’s the only one carrying a team with realistic title hopes. For all his dominance, though, he’s tracking toward being the third name off the board in June.
Seth Greenberg tells Stephen A. Smith why he’s so impressed by Cam Boozer’s mentality.
The season so far: Wilson’s breakout season hit the skids when he fractured his hand on Feb. 10, but he has already made quite an impression, solidifying himself as a top-five prospect who can impact play on the interior with his activity and explosiveness, while also possessing untapped skill potential. He’s working toward a return in March, with the Tar Heels headed back to the NCAA tournament, giving NBA teams one last look at him in a high-pressure environment.
Exceptionally quick off the floor, Wilson has dominated largely thanks to how hard he plays, winning extra possessions on the glass and finishing effectively inside 15 feet (72% at the rim with 67 dunks, and shooting 61% inside the arc). Wilson is still raw as a ball handler and not a reliable 3-point shooter. Envisioning his upside involves more projection than his peers. He has an outside chance of breaking into the top three, however, depending on which teams move up in the lottery.
Some NBA evaluators rate Wilson ahead of Boozer based on those potential upside outcomes, valuing how his vertical explosiveness and shot blocking could translate into two-way impact. Boozer is the far more polished player, but a team looking to build a more athletic, defensively versatile frontline could look at Wilson and take a chance on his development.
While Flemings’ blistering early-season efficiency has come back to earth, the excitement around his upside remains, with elite change of pace and the ability to play above the rim giving him a shot at stardom. Houston has a real chance at another Final Four run and will need him at his best to do it, giving him a platform to state his case in March as the potential second guard off the board.
Life has gotten a bit more difficult for Flemings lately, as Houston’s other perimeter players have struggled to make shots, enabling defenses to load up in the paint and try to shrink his space. If the other Cougars can get going offensively, it’ll help his chances of a full breakout in the postseason. Regardless of how Flemings fares in March, however, NBA teams will zero in on his shooting in workouts as they separate the guards in his tier of this class.
The season so far: Ament turned things around in SEC play after a slow start, putting together an excellent stretch before injuring his right leg on Saturday against Alabama. His status for the postseason remains unclear after he missed Tennessee’s game Tuesday at South Carolina, but he stabilized his place on draft boards with his strong play in February, averaging 19 points and six rebounds per game in conference play. However, his lack of efficiency left something to be desired.
When Ament is making shots, it’s easy to see why he was a consensus top-five prospect entering the season. The jumbo wing scorer archetype tends to be an easy NBA elevator pitch. Forwards of his size who can handle, pass and shoot tend to more likely become rotation fixtures, at a minimum. The biggest question around Ament is simply how much he can improve as a creator over time, which will require developing his handle, footwork and shooting with more consistency.
Ultimately, it’s easy to see lottery teams opting for the perceived upside of the other players, which is something Acuff can’t control. But at this moment in time, he is the most NBA-ready of the four guards. He is capable of the type of postseason run that can further elevate his profile, and he’ll need to do that for Arkansas to win a few games in the Big Dance. While he can’t control how teams project him physically, this is an opportunity to further strengthen his body of work.
The extended absence limited Brown’s opportunity to boost his profile, with other freshmen playing well in the meantime. If he can maintain his form in the postseason spotlight and continue to remind teams of his talent, inching back up the board is very much a possibility. Louisville has struggled to beat better competition both with and without Brown, but it has the talent to string together wins in the ACC and NCAA tournaments if things break right.
Brown is a much better player when he is patient and looks to attack the paint first, opening up opportunities for teammates. When he’s settling for tough shots and forcing up attempts, things haven’t always gone well. His skill level isn’t in doubt, but reinforcing that he can make strong pass-shoot decisions under pressure would help address some of the concerns scouts still have.
The consensus around the NBA right now is that those nine players will wind up in the lotto. There’s less certainty around the next part of the draft but room for players to state their cases over the next month. The 2017 draft had the most freshman-heavy first round ever, with 11 going in the lottery and 16 selected in the first round.
Steinbach (Washington), Brayden Burries (Arizona), Braylon Mullins (UConn), Chris Cenac Jr. (Houston) and Koa Peat (Arizona) are all projected first-round freshmen who could sneak into the lottery. There’s also a case for some of these players to return and potentially rise in a thinner 2027 draft class, but would all hear their names called in the first round if they entered this year’s draft.
Of that group, Burries has built the most tangible momentum of late, emerging as a go-to scorer for a prospect-heavy Arizona team capable of winning the national title. He is older for a freshman but is comfortable scoring on and off the ball and also has been a plus defender, giving him a well-rounded NBA skill set. Burries has fully turned it around after a slow start to the season and could wind up in the back half of the lottery if things keep trending this way.
The season so far: Peterson is the draft’s most gifted shot creator and a top-flight perimeter shooter, giving him the highest offensive ceiling of anyone in the class. As a result, he was viewed by many around the NBA as the front-runner for the No. 1 pick entering the season. But nothing has gone according to plan for him at Kansas, as he has battled injury and illness and faced criticism for the intermittent nature of his availability. Peterson has played 27.9 minutes per game while starting 19 of the Jayhawks’ 30 games, with bouts of cramping at times preventing him from finishing them.
The season so far: Dybantsa put together an excellent February and has shown a good deal of growth, answering some of the questions surrounding his decision-making, shot selection and jump shooting. He’s arguably the most physically gifted prospect in the class, a dynamic slasher averaging 26.2 points, 6.4 rebounds and 3.8 assists through 17 Big 12 games and leading the league in scoring. As scouts have zeroed in on his jump shooting, Dybantsa has been taking 3s with more confidence, shooting a passable 34.7% from range. He has made better decisions and shown more assertiveness as the season has gone on.