Bill ConnellyMar 5, 2026, 11:01 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on XMultiple Authors
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Should Barcelona protect Lamine Yamal more after recent injury scares? (1:17)ESPN’s Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens debate if Lamine Yamal is playing too much football for his age. (1:17)
Hutchison: Chelsea ‘absolutely outstanding’ in win over Aston VillaDon Hutchison reacts to Chelsea’s 4-1 win over Aston Villa in the Premier League.
How will Real Madrid cope without Rodrygo?Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens debate if Real Madrid can cope without Rodrygo and Kylian Mbappé for a long period of time.
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens debate if Real Madrid can cope without Rodrygo and Kylian Mbappé for a long period of time.
Did Manchester City deserve a penalty vs. Nottingham Forest?Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens discuss a key penalty incident in Manchester City’s 2-2 draw with Nottingham Forest.
Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens discuss a key penalty incident in Manchester City’s 2-2 draw with Nottingham Forest.
AND FINALLY … NOTEWORTHY TEAMS ON THE NEGATIVE SIDE
Through most of 2025-26, two soccer teams have consistently stood out from the pack in Europe. Arsenal and Bayern Munich finished with the top two point totals in the Champions League league phase — Arsenal pulled a perfect 24 points from eight matches, and Bayern dropped points only against Arsenal — and they have led their respective domestic leagues from virtually start to present. Hell, they’re still alive in their domestic cup competitions, too.
These two clubs have set the standard this season, but, well, the season’s long. Are they still the best teams in Europe now that the season’s stretch run is approaching? Not necessarily. They’re among the best, but they have some company.
Every so often, I check in on teams’ form over the last couple of months using what I call “adjusted goal differential,” a mix of 30% goal differential and 70% xG differential in 11 vs. 11 situations. It isn’t opponent-adjusted and therefore isn’t incredibly predictive, but it tells us who’s hot. And based on league play, selected domestic cup play* and UEFA competitions, here are the 30 hottest teams from Europe’s Big Five leagues since Jan. 5.
(* Because there have still been quite a few matches between first-division and much lower-division clubs in the FA Cup and Coupe de France, we’ll leave those out.)
Past two months: 13 matches, 30 points (2.31 PPG), +1.65 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: at Athletic Club (March 7), at Newcastle (Champions League, March 10), Sevilla (March 15), Newcastle (Champions League, March 18), Rayo Vallecano (March 22), at Atletico Madrid (April 5)
(Note: For each team’s upcoming schedule, I’ve italicized the matches against other teams in this top 30 list)
The competition level hasn’t been spectacular, but Barca have established an incredibly high level, and they’ve actually been unlucky: Robert Lewandowski, Ferran Torres, Dani Olmo and Fermín López have combined to score only 11 goals from shots worth 19.3 xG. The quartet combined for 2.0 xG, but failed to score in a 2-1 loss to Real Sociedad.
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Hansi Flick is my favorite manager in Europe, not because he’s the best — though he certainly ranks pretty high — but because he lays all his cards on the table in every match.
If you beat Barça, you’re going to do it by playing their match. They’re going to tilt the pitch with their short passing game and preposterously high defensive line, forcing you to play directly (and probably get pulled offside) or lose the ball as soon as you get it back. They’re going to attempt far more shots than you, and they’re going to force you to finish a couple of the few high-quality chances you create.
And, increasingly in the new year, you’re going to have to figure out how to rein in Lamine Yamal. The 18-year-old has caught fire, scoring nine goals (third among all players in this sample) with 48 chances created (first), 106 ground duels won (first) and 12 successful one-on-ones in the box (first). Ridiculous.
Barça are playing at this level despite the poor non-Yamal finishing and despite getting few minutes from either Pedri or Raphinha, maybe two of the three most important players when it comes to executing Flick’s style. If they can stay healthy for the first time in a while, and if the above quartet starts finishing at even an average level, then this could easily be the best team in Europe down the stretch.
One thing is certain: This next month is going to be a challenge. Barça makes a trip to Sam Mames weekend, and then they play four games in four weeks against teams currently in this top 30. To keep hopes of a LaLiga and Champions League double intact, they’ll need to be something pretty close to the best team in Europe.
Past two months: 12 matches, 31 points (2.58 PPG), +1.32 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: Borussia Monchengladbach (March 6), at Atalanta (Champions League, March 10), at Bayer Leverkusen (March 14), Atalanta (Champions League, March 18), Union Berlin (March 21), at Freiburg (April 4)
Past two months: 12 matches, 26 points (2.17 PPG), +1.20 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: Monaco (March 6), Chelsea (Champions League, March 11), Nantes (March 15), at Chelsea (Champions League, March 17), at Nice (March 22), Toulouse (April 5)
Past two months: 12 matches, 21 points (1.75 PPG), +1.05 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: at Wolves (FA Cup, March 6), at Galatasaray (Champions League, March 10), Tottenham Hotspur (March 15), Galatasaray (Champions League, March 18), at Brighton (March 21)
They were outclassed in losses to Bournemouth in January (xG differential: minus-1.6) and Manchester City (minus-1.7), but Liverpool are good; they look worthy of a Champions League run. Despite playing in the ruthless Premier League, they’ve produced a positive xG differential in nine of their 12 matches in this span, and they were terribly unlucky in both Tuesday’s loss to Wolves (xG differential: plus-1.4) and recent draws against Fulham (plus-0.7) and Burnley (plus-2.9!).
They’re attempting far more shots than their opponents, they’re creating far better shots, they’re counterattacking well when they need to, and pretty much every attacker — from Hugo Ekitike to Florian Wirtz, Dominik Szoboszlai and Mohamed Salah — has done some pretty dangerous things of late.
Past two months: 7 matches, 13 points (1.86 PPG), +1.05 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: at Lyon (Coupe de France, March 5), Metz (March 8), at Lorient (March 15), Angers (March 22), at Lille (April 5)
A 3-2 tossup loss to Monaco (xG differential: plus-0.1) and an unfortunate draw with Strasbourg (plus-0.8) likely ended Lens’ Ligue 1 title hopes — they’re now four points behind PSG — but they’re still creating a delightful story this season. They’ve gotten a combined nine goals, nine assists and 109 chances created from 32-year-old Adrien Thomasson and 33-year-old Florian Thauvin, plus 10 goals from 30-year-old Wesley Saïd, and only PSG has allowed fewer goals.
Manager Pierre Sage has caught lightning in a bottle, and Lens should be back in the Champions League next year because of it.
Past two months: 17 matches, 38 points (2.24 PPG), +1.03 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: at AC Milan (March 8), Atalanta (March 14), at Fiorentina (March 22), Roma (April 4)
In their last 15 Serie A matches, Inter have dropped two points. They’re on pace for 94 points in Serie A; no one has had more since Juventus hit 95 in 2017-18. They’re into the Coppa Italia semifinals (where they drew at Como in the first leg). Domestically, this has been one of the club’s best campaigns.
It just didn’t happen for them this year in the Champions League, where they lost three of their last four, then dropped both legs to Bodo/Glimt in the knockout phase playoffs, but even if Serie A isn’t amazing this season, you don’t dominate to this level if you aren’t really, really good.
Past two months: 14 matches, 31 points (2.21 PPG), +1.01 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: at Mansfield (FA Cup, March 7), at Bayer Leverkusen (Champions League, March 11), Everton (March 14), Bayer Leverkusen (Champions League, March 17), vs. Manchester City (League Cup final, March 22)
Adjust for the quality of opponent, and obviously Arsenal would be higher on this list. In their 14 matches over the past two months, they’ve played five matches against teams ranked 12th or higher here. (Their results in those five matches: four wins and a draw.) They’re No. 1 by a healthy margin in Opta’s power ratings, which currently give them an 94% chance of winning the Premier League and a 27% chance of winning the Champions League.
The standard might have slipped a hair, and their mere 1-in-4 chance in the Champions League is a reminder that they still have a haul ahead of them: They might have to beat Barça in the semis, then either Bayern, PSG, City, Liverpool or Chelsea in the finals. But this remains the best team in Europe, even if we pretended they were in danger in the Premier League for a moment.
Past two months: 14 matches, 29 points (2.07 PPG), +1.00 adj. goal differential Next month’s schedule: at Mainz (March 7), Porto (Europa League, March 12), RB Leipzig (March 15), at Porto (Europa League, March 19), at Augsburg (March 22), Borussia Dortmund (April 4)