Seth WalderMar 9, 2026, 05:12 PM ETCloseSeth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.Multiple Authors
play1:11Orlovsky: Malik Willis to Dolphins is a ‘good opportunity’Dan Orlovsky breaks down quarterback Malik Willis’ deal with the Miami Dolphins.
play0:50Orlovsky: Linderbaum signing best thing Raiders could do for MendozaDan Orlovsky and Peter Schrager weigh in on why the Raiders signing C Tyler Linderbaum is good for Fernando Mendoza.
play1:15Why Jaelan Phillips is a great addition for the PanthersPat McAfee and crew break down how Jaelan Phillips fits with the Panthers’ defense.
play2:32Orlovsky: Kenneth Walker III can ‘100%’ change everything for ChiefsDan Orlovsky, Peter Schrager and Pat McAfee react to the news that Kenneth Wallker III is signing with the Chiefs.
play1:23Alec Pierce after $116M deal: I think the Colts can be specialAlec Pierce joins Pat McAfee and details the process that led to him re-signing with the Colts.
play1:15Stephen A.: Rashan Gary trade not a game-changing move for CowboysStephen A. Smith weighs in on the Dallas Cowboys trading for Rashan Gary.
play0:41Schefter: Jets trade for Minkah FitzpatrickAdam Schefter reports on the Jets making a trade with the Dolphins for Minkah Fitzpatrick.
play2:13Schefter details how the Bills landed on DJ Moore as their next WRAdam Schefter breaks the news that the Bears have agreed to trade DJ Moore to the Buffalo Bills.
play1:47Why did the Chiefs let go of All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie?Pat McAfee & Co. try to decipher why the Chiefs have traded All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams.
play1:37Stephen A. a fan of the Texans landing David MontgomeryStephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky react to the Lions trading David Montgomery to the Texans.
What does Saints signing Travis Etienne Jr. mean for Alvin Kamara? (0:47)Adam Schefter joins Pat McAfee to break down Travis Etienne signing with the Saints. (0:47)
Orlovsky: Malik Willis to Dolphins is a ‘good opportunity’Dan Orlovsky breaks down quarterback Malik Willis’ deal with the Miami Dolphins.
Orlovsky: Linderbaum signing best thing Raiders could do for MendozaDan Orlovsky and Peter Schrager weigh in on why the Raiders signing C Tyler Linderbaum is good for Fernando Mendoza.
Dan Orlovsky and Peter Schrager weigh in on why the Raiders signing C Tyler Linderbaum is good for Fernando Mendoza.
Why Jaelan Phillips is a great addition for the PanthersPat McAfee and crew break down how Jaelan Phillips fits with the Panthers’ defense.
Orlovsky: Kenneth Walker III can ‘100%’ change everything for ChiefsDan Orlovsky, Peter Schrager and Pat McAfee react to the news that Kenneth Wallker III is signing with the Chiefs.
Dan Orlovsky, Peter Schrager and Pat McAfee react to the news that Kenneth Wallker III is signing with the Chiefs.
Alec Pierce after $116M deal: I think the Colts can be specialAlec Pierce joins Pat McAfee and details the process that led to him re-signing with the Colts.
Stephen A.: Rashan Gary trade not a game-changing move for CowboysStephen A. Smith weighs in on the Dallas Cowboys trading for Rashan Gary.
Schefter: Jets trade for Minkah FitzpatrickAdam Schefter reports on the Jets making a trade with the Dolphins for Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Schefter details how the Bills landed on DJ Moore as their next WRAdam Schefter breaks the news that the Bears have agreed to trade DJ Moore to the Buffalo Bills.
Why did the Chiefs let go of All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie?Pat McAfee & Co. try to decipher why the Chiefs have traded All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams.
Pat McAfee & Co. try to decipher why the Chiefs have traded All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams.
Stephen A. a fan of the Texans landing David MontgomeryStephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky react to the Lions trading David Montgomery to the Texans.
NFL free agency began Monday with the legal negotiating window, but the action started before that. ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder is grading the biggest signings and trades of the offseason, putting each deal into perspective for teams and players.
To determine each grade, Walder is evaluating moves based on multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary cap implications, compensation, player value/age, and the context of a team’s short- and long-term outlooks. How large is the effect of this decision, and how sure are we it’s a good or bad choice? How does this affect a team’s chance to win the Super Bowl, this season or in the future?
Follow along as we evaluate and grade each big signing and trade, with the most recent moves at the top.
The Commanders needed to add pass rush juice at edge. And they ideally needed to do it with a player in his prime, rather than an aging veteran like Von Miller a year ago. Oweh checks both boxes. The former Ravens and Chargers edge rusher was one of the top free agents in this year’s class — and he got paid like it.
Oweh failed to record a sack while he was with Baltimore last season, then notched 7.5 after being traded to the Chargers. That split is mostly noise because his underlying numbers were good all year. He ranked in the 80th percentile in pass rush win rate among edge rushers and in the 82nd percentile in pressure rate. Plus, he recorded 10 sacks with the Ravens the year before. He’s good — he just took time to develop.
As poor as last season went for Washington, the team should absolutely be maximizing its current window. With a healthy Jayden Daniels on a rookie contract and lots of cap room entering free agency, the Commanders might as well build up their roster and see how far they can go. Oweh will lead an edge-rushing group that includes Deatrich Wise Jr. — who missed most of last season with a quadriceps injury — and Dorance Armstrong, who tore an ACL last October.
The Titans are well into their expected spending spree, as they try to use their plethora of cap space to build out a more functional roster as the team enters its second year of the Cam Ward era.
Coach Robert Saleh clearly wanted improved cornerback play, prompting the signing of both Taylor and Cor’Dale Flott. We’ll focus on the former here.
Taylor is coming off a nice season in New Orleans in which he allowed 1.0 yards per coverage snap and allowed minus-1 EPA playing primarily as a nickel, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But what scares me is how big of a departure those numbers are from what he posted the two prior seasons, in each of which he allowed 1.6 yards per coverage snap and double-digit positive EPA when targeted.
It remains to be seen where the Titans will play Taylor. He has experience both outside and in the slot, though his best play came last season was when he was primarily inside.
At $20 million per year, this contract is not only more than I expected but also $2 million per year more than Jaylen Watson received from the Rams. It is too expensive for a player who does not have a long track record of reliability.
For the first time in what seems like years, the Saints entered free agency with a bit of cap room to maneuver. They opted for one decent-sized signing in Etienne, but it’s not a move I can endorse.
Etienne entered free agency coming off an improved season in which he recorded 4.3 yards per carry and 44 rush yards over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But that came after two consecutive seasons in which Etienne recorded negative rush yards over expected (minus-77 in 2023 and minus-43 in 2024) following a big 2022 campaign.
And although Etienne recorded six receiving touchdowns last season, he had only 36 receptions, and the Jaguars kept him off the field in passing situations. He was active for only 6% of third-and-7-plus plays.
It remains to be seen whether the Saints will pair Etienne with Kamara, who turns 31 this summer and whose primary skill is in the receiving game, or move on from the veteran. Either way, though Etienne should improve the Saints’ running game, I don’t love this usage of their capital, especially considering his inconsistent history. The Saints could have picked up a different back in the draft or free agency who still would have improved their running game but for less cash.
Still, as with the Chiefs’ signing of Kenneth Walker III, there is a hidden silver lining. This should take the Saints out of the Jeremiyah Love sweepstakes, and that can only be a good thing considering how much of a value mistake it is to draft a running back in the top 10.
Robinson is going to play for Brian Daboll again, as the Titans signed the former Giants receiver in another move that was highly expected before free agency.
I’m a Robinson believer after last season, part of which he played for Daboll. Robinson underwent a role shift in 2025, and his production skyrocketed. His percentage of plays in the slot dropped from 72% to 52%, his average depth three seconds into a route fell from 8.3 yards to 7.2, and — most telling of all — his air yards per target went up from 4.9 to 8.8.
And Robinson very much delivered, as his yards per route run popped from 1.3 to 2.1 with a 28% target share that was surely inflated due to Malik Nabers tearing an ACL in Week 4 but impressive nonetheless. Robinson recorded a 65 open score in ESPN’s receiver metrics last season, indicating an above-average ability to get open that should yield success in Tennessee.
The Titans got promising play out of rookie Elic Ayomanor last season and have Calvin Ridley on the roster (at least for now). But with or without Ridley, they needed to add receiving talent this offseason and had money to spend. The Titans must work under the assumption that quarterback Cam Ward takes a big step in Year 2 and capitalize on having a QB on a rookie contract. Signing a player such as Robinson fits right in line with that idea.
The contract price might strike some as high, but it was almost perfectly with my projection for Robinson, and I think it is plenty fair given what he showed last season and the fact that he’s in the prime of his career at 25 years old.