Seth WalderMar 9, 2026, 02:56 PM ETCloseSeth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.Multiple Authors
play1:15Why Jaelan Phillips is a great addition for the PanthersPat McAfee and crew break down how Jaelan Phillips fits with the Panthers’ defense.
play2:32Orlovsky: Kenneth Walker III can ‘100%’ change everything for ChiefsDan Orlovsky, Peter Schrager and Pat McAfee react to the news that Kenneth Wallker III is signing with the Chiefs.
play1:23Alec Pierce after $116M deal: I think the Colts can be specialAlec Pierce joins Pat McAfee and details the process that led to him re-signing with the Colts.
play1:15Stephen A.: Rashan Gary trade not a game-changing move for CowboysStephen A. Smith weighs in on the Dallas Cowboys trading for Rashan Gary.
play0:41Schefter: Jets trade for Minkah FitzpatrickAdam Schefter reports on the Jets making a trade with the Dolphins for Minkah Fitzpatrick.
play2:13Schefter details how the Bills landed on DJ Moore as their next WRAdam Schefter breaks the news that the Bears have agreed to trade DJ Moore to the Buffalo Bills.
play1:47Why did the Chiefs let go of All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie?Pat McAfee & Co. try to decipher why the Chiefs have traded All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams.
play1:37Stephen A. a fan of the Texans landing David MontgomeryStephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky react to the Lions trading David Montgomery to the Texans.
Orlovsky: Linderbaum signing best thing Raiders could do for Mendoza (0:50)Dan Orlovsky and Peter Schrager weigh in on why the Raiders signing C Tyler Linderbaum is good for Fernando Mendoza. (0:50)
Why Jaelan Phillips is a great addition for the PanthersPat McAfee and crew break down how Jaelan Phillips fits with the Panthers’ defense.
Orlovsky: Kenneth Walker III can ‘100%’ change everything for ChiefsDan Orlovsky, Peter Schrager and Pat McAfee react to the news that Kenneth Wallker III is signing with the Chiefs.
Dan Orlovsky, Peter Schrager and Pat McAfee react to the news that Kenneth Wallker III is signing with the Chiefs.
Alec Pierce after $116M deal: I think the Colts can be specialAlec Pierce joins Pat McAfee and details the process that led to him re-signing with the Colts.
Stephen A.: Rashan Gary trade not a game-changing move for CowboysStephen A. Smith weighs in on the Dallas Cowboys trading for Rashan Gary.
Schefter: Jets trade for Minkah FitzpatrickAdam Schefter reports on the Jets making a trade with the Dolphins for Minkah Fitzpatrick.
Schefter details how the Bills landed on DJ Moore as their next WRAdam Schefter breaks the news that the Bears have agreed to trade DJ Moore to the Buffalo Bills.
Why did the Chiefs let go of All-Pro CB Trent McDuffie?Pat McAfee & Co. try to decipher why the Chiefs have traded All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams.
Pat McAfee & Co. try to decipher why the Chiefs have traded All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie to the Rams.
Stephen A. a fan of the Texans landing David MontgomeryStephen A. Smith and Dan Orlovsky react to the Lions trading David Montgomery to the Texans.
NFL free agency began Monday with the legal negotiating window, but the action started before that. ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder is grading the biggest signings and trades of the offseason, putting each deal into perspective for teams and players.
To determine each grade, Walder is evaluating moves based on multiple factors, including on-field impact, salary cap implications, compensation, player value/age, and the context of a team’s short- and long-term outlooks. How large is the effect of this decision, and how sure are we it’s a good or bad choice? How does this affect a team’s chance to win the Super Bowl, this season or in the future?
Follow along as we evaluate and grade each big signing and trade, with the most recent moves at the top.
Jump to a notable deal: Linderbaum | Watson | Phillips | Walker Pierce | Gary | Fitzpatrick Crosby Moore | McDuffie | Montgomery
Linderbaum is one of these scenarios. Since 2011, the highest average-per-year contract for a center — if we adjust to the 2026 cap environment — had been Frank Ragnow’s deal in 2021 at $22.3 million in today’s dollars. Linderbaum just signed for $27 million per year.
The Raiders absolutely needed to shore up their offensive line ahead of Fernando Mendoza’s presumed arrival. In Linderbaum, who will turn 26 next month, they land a center in the prime of his career at a caliber that teams typically won’t find in free agency.
Linderbaum ranked second in pass block win rate last season and is generally regarded as a good run blocker even though his run block win rate hasn’t ever been quite as high (48th percentile over the past two seasons). He is widely considered among the top centers in the league, though I’d put him a tier below Creed Humphrey, the consensus best player at the best position.
But is Linderbaum worth $27 million per year? It’s hard to say yes given past precedent and the relative lack of importance of the position. On the other hand, the Raiders really needed to improve their line and there was a huge drop-off in alternatives.
I think that’s important, as the next-best center available in free agency is probably Cade Mays. Also, the Raiders also have more cap space than anyone. That doesn’t make inefficient spending good, but they need to spend some of that money. And supporting their soon-to-be rookie quarterback is an important part of their long-term development as an organization.
One team that probably feels great seeing Linderbaum’s number? The Bills, who locked in Connor McGovern at $13 million per year over the weekend. Comparatively, that’s an absolute steal.
The Rams knew their weakness last season was their cornerbacks, so they haven’t held back in addressing the issue. They started by trading for McDuffie and handing him a huge contract, then they added Watson to bring the former Chiefs cornerbacks back together.
The issue is solved on paper. McDuffie is a premier corner and Watson has been a consistently strong player in Kansas City. In each of the past four seasons, Watson has allowed 1.1 yards per coverage snap (average for an outside corner) or better. And that consistency is meaningful. I would much rather invest in a cornerback who plays well year after year than someone coming off a single great season given how erratic cornerback play can be from one year to the next.
There is also something to be said for having multiple strong cornerbacks. Pass coverage can be a weak link system, meaning that a single strong cornerback can help but if the player opposite him is poor in coverage, opponents still can pick on the weaker player. A defense with two good corners is much harder to defeat.
The Rams are doubling down on a very particular risk here — the Steve Spagnuolo factor. We’ve seen defensive backs have great success under Spagnuolo and struggle to reach that same level elsewhere. If that continues, it could cost the Rams double.
But $18 million really isn’t too big a price to pay here. It’s what I thought Watson would go for but it’s also a far cry from the $31 million McDuffie got this weekend. And the theoretical top (if we adjust for cap inflation) is just over $32 million.
Watson doesn’t have to be a star to pay off. And the Rams — who actually are among the teams with the most 2027 cap space right now, per OverTheCap.com — are trying to maximize their Super Bowl window before Matthew Stafford retires. I also don’t love a lot of the alternatives in the free agent market, so locking in the second part of the former Chiefs tandem makes sense to me.
The Panthers needed edge help and decided to pay up to get it. They landed Phillips to improve a unit that ranked 24th in pass rush win rate and 32nd in run stop win rate last season.
Phillips should be an asset in both areas. The former Dolphin and Eagle has never had a double-digit sack season but clearly makes an impact as an edge rusher. Injuries derailed his early career in Miami: a torn Achilles in 2023 and a partially torn ACL in 2024 set him back. But he was effective again last season between Miami and Philadelphia and, critically, played 17 games.
Why Jaelan Phillips is a great addition for the Panthers
Pat McAfee and crew break down how Jaelan Phillips fits with the Panthers’ defense.
Phillips ranked in the 92nd percentile in pressure rate and 55th percentile in pass rush win rate and run stop win rate at edge.
At 27 years old, the Panthers are getting Phillips in the prime of his career, and he fills a major need. Nic Scourton showed promise as a rookie, but they need an edge opposite him. D.J. Wonnum, who ranked in the 12th percentile in pass rush win rate at edge last season, is a free agent.
The Chiefs got their running back. After getting lackluster play at the position last season, Kansas City opted to sign the top free agent running back, who also happens to be the Super Bowl MVP.
In Walker, the Chiefs gain explosive upside on every run that they simply did not have last year. Even though he was sharing the workload with Zach Charbonnet, Walker had the sixth-most runs of 10-plus yards last season (33), which is where he shines. And of course, his play in the postseason raised his value quite a bit.
In the regular season, Walker recorded 39 rush yards over expected and generated 0 first downs over expected, per NFL Next Gen Stats. But in the playoffs Walker recorded 79 rush yards over expected and eight (!) first downs over expected in what was legitimately an excellent run.
He clearly fills a need for Kansas City, and you can easily understand why they want him. I do think there are some drawbacks. First, the regular-season numbers were good but not exceptional, and I’m wary of over-indexing on the playoffs.
Orlovsky: Kenneth Walker III can ‘100%’ change everything for Chiefs