Myron MedcalfMar 23, 2026, 12:35 AM ETClose Covers college basketball Joined ESPN.com in 2011 Graduate of Minnesota State University, MankatoFollow on XMultiple Authors
play0:19Morez Johnson Jr. elevates for Michigan alley-oopMorez Johnson Jr. elevates for Michigan alley-oop
play0:49St. John’s stuns Kansas at the buzzer to reach Sweet 16Dylan Darling’s first basket of the game is a layup as time expires to win it for St. John’s in dramatic fashion.
play0:32Nebraska wins as Vanderbilt’s 49-foot heave narrowly missesBraden Frager scores the go-ahead basket for Nebraska in the final seconds, while Tyler Tanner’s heave almost drops as the Cornhuskers outlast the Commodores.
Iowa prevails late for major upset of Florida (0:47)Alvaro Folgueiras sinks a go-ahead 3-pointer in the final seconds as Iowa takes down the defending champions. (0:47)
St. John’s stuns Kansas at the buzzer to reach Sweet 16Dylan Darling’s first basket of the game is a layup as time expires to win it for St. John’s in dramatic fashion.
Dylan Darling’s first basket of the game is a layup as time expires to win it for St. John’s in dramatic fashion.
Nebraska wins as Vanderbilt’s 49-foot heave narrowly missesBraden Frager scores the go-ahead basket for Nebraska in the final seconds, while Tyler Tanner’s heave almost drops as the Cornhuskers outlast the Commodores.
Braden Frager scores the go-ahead basket for Nebraska in the final seconds, while Tyler Tanner’s heave almost drops as the Cornhuskers outlast the Commodores.
We’ve had plenty of surprises in the opening weekend of this year’s men’s NCAA tournament. Iowa, which upset 1-seed Florida on Sunday, and Iowa State, which beat Kentucky without All-American Joshua Jefferson on the same day, are in the Sweet 16 together for the first time.
Alabama has been the same offensive juggernaut it was all season, even without Aden Holloway. And we’re not going to call Texas a Cinderella, but it’s the closest we have to one this tournament. (Per ESPN Research, this is the second straight year the Sweet 16 is made up of only major conference schools — the only two instances in NCAA tournament history in which the final 16 teams are all from major conferences.)
The top of the list is where it gets more complicated. No. 1 overall seed Duke is still a great team, but the Blue Devils are missing something with Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II not at 100%. This doesn’t look like the same team that beat Michigan in February. Houston, Illinois and Purdue also seem to be closing the gap on the group of remaining 1-seeds.
Here’s how we see the current landscape of the national title chase with the Sweet 16 approaching in a few days.
1. Arizona Wildcats Original seed: No. 1 (West) Tournament results: Defeated No. 16 Long Island 92-58 (first round); defeated No. 9 Utah State 78-66 (round of 32)
2. Michigan Wolverines Original seed: No. 1 (Midwest) Tournament results: Defeated No. 16 Howard 101-80 (first round); defeated No. 9 Saint Louis 95-72 (round of 32)
Morez Johnson Jr. elevates for Michigan alley-oopMorez Johnson Jr. elevates for Michigan alley-oop
3. Duke Blue Devils Original seed: No. 1 overall (East) Tournament results: Defeated No. 16 Siena 71-65 (first round); defeated No. 9 TCU 81-58 (round of 32)
4. Houston Cougars Original seed: No. 2 (South) Tournament results: Defeated No. 15 Idaho 78-47 (first round); defeated No. 10 Texas A&M 88-57 (round of 32)
5. Illinois Fighting Illini Original seed: No. 3 (South) Tournament results: Defeated No. 14 Penn 105-70 (first round); defeated No. 11 VCU 76-55 (round of 32)
6. Iowa State Cyclones Original seed: No. 2 (Midwest) Tournament results: Defeated No. 15 Tennessee State 108-74 (first round); defeated No. 7 Kentucky 82-63 (round of 32)
7. Purdue Boilermakers Original seed: No. 2 (West) Tournament results: Defeated No. 15 Queens University 104-71 (first round); defeated No. 7 Miami 79-69 (round of 32)
8. Michigan State Spartans Original seed: No. 2 (East) Tournament results: Defeated No. 15 Bryant 92-67 (first round); defeated No. 6 Louisville 77-69 (round of 32)
9. St. John’s Red Storm Original seed: No. 5 (East) Tournament results: Defeated No. 12 Northern Iowa 79-53 (first round); defeated No. 4 Kansas 67-65 (round of 32)
St. John’s stuns Kansas at the buzzer to reach Sweet 16
10. UConn Huskies Original seed: No. 2 (East) Tournament results: Defeated No. 15 Furman 82-71 (first round); defeated No. 7 UCLA 73-57 (round of 32)
11. Arkansas Razorbacks Original seed: No. 4 (West) Tournament results: Defeated No. 13 Hawai’i 97-78 (first round); defeated No. 12 High Point 94-88 (round of 32)
12. Alabama Crimson Tide Original seed: No. 3 (Midwest) Tournament results: Defeated No. 13 Hofstra 90-70 (first round); defeated No. 5 Texas Tech 90-65 (round of 32)
13. Nebraska Cornhuskers Original seed: No. 4 (South) Tournament results: Defeated No. 13 Troy 76-47 (first round); defeated No. 5 Vanderbilt 74-72 (round of 32)
Nebraska wins as Vanderbilt’s 49-foot heave narrowly misses
14. Tennessee Volunteers Original seed: No. 6 (Midwest) Tournament results: Defeated No. 11 Miami (Ohio) 78-56 (first round); defeated No. 3 Virginia 79-72 (round of 32)
15. Iowa Hawkeyes Original seed: No. 9 (South) Tournament results: Defeated No. 8 Clemson 67-61 (first round); defeated No. 1 Florida 73-72 (round of 32)
16. Texas Longhorns Original seed: No. 11 (West) Tournament results: Defeated No. 11 NC State 68-66 (First Four); defeated No. 6 BYU 79-71 (first round); defeated No. 3 Gonzaga 74-68 (round of 32)
The Arizona Wildcats have depth, a great coach and an overall talent pool to win the program’s — and the West Coast’s — first national title since 1997. That’s why they’ve been picked by many fans to win it all. Here’s a skill that might have been overlooked: an uncanny ability to get to the free throw line. College basketball fans tend to resent games that include a lot of foul calls; they’d rather see teams run up and down the court and keep things moving and exciting. But that kind of play doesn’t always lead to victories. Arizona is one of the best teams in America at drawing fouls and getting to the free throw line, and it is effective. The Wildcats have averaged 26.3 free throw attempts this season. They’ve recorded 72 free throw attempts in two NCAA tournament games. Even if the shots stop falling, they can still put points on the board.
There was a specific moment Saturday against Saint Louis when everything really crystallized for Michigan. The Wolverines’ 7-foot-3 center Aday Mara had the ball near the top of the 3-point arc in the second half. Morez Johnson Jr. was camped out near the basket, waiting for something to happen. AP All-American Yaxel Lendeborg also waited on the perimeter, where he has shot 48% since the start of the Big Ten tournament. That’s three players 6-foot-9 or taller — three projected first-round picks in the 2026 NBA draft — all waiting to make something happen. The Wolverines are a collective 37% from 3 and have a top-three defense nationally. Only three teams this season have been able to solve the riddle that is Michigan’s dominance. There’s just too many ways this team can beat you.
Kelvin Sampson always saves his best for last. Since 2021-22, his Cougars tend to play their best basketball between Feb. 1 and the end of the season. So far, they’re 70-15 overall in that period, including this year’s run to the Sweet 16. Once that calendar turns to February, they become one of the most imposing programs in the country. This year, the Cougars have been ranked No. 2 in adjusted defensive efficiency since Feb. 1. Since the beginning of the Big 12 tournament, they’ve shot 42% from 3. And in their past three wins, they’ve held their opponents (Kansas, Idaho, Texas A&M) to an average of 50.3 points. Redshirt senior Emanuel Sharp and freshman Kingston Flemings are the stars of the backcourt for a team that’s going to try to finish strong again.
Ranked first in adjusted offensive efficiency for the bulk of the season, Illinois put together massive runs to advance to the Sweet 16 for the second time in three years. In the first round against Penn, the Illini started the second half ahead by 10 points but 10 minutes later pushed their advantage to 26. On Saturday against VCU, they turned a seven-point halftime lead into a 22-point edge after a 24-9 run; the Illini registered 141 points per 100 possessions in that game, a more efficient scoring clip than that of the Denver Nuggets. Few teams have these kinds of knockout punches in their arsenal. Led by freshman Keaton Wagler (32 points, nine assists, 50% from beyond the arc in two NCAA tournament games), this group hasn’t even broken a sweat yet on its way to the second weekend.
Sometimes, it just comes down to the numbers — especially when the numbers are jaw-dropping. Purdue has won its past six games, including the Big Ten tournament championship over Michigan. Over that stretch, the Boilermakers, per BartTorvik, have had the best offense in America — even superior to that of Illinois, the top team in adjusted offensive efficiency. It gets better. The Boilermakers have made 177 of their 342 field goal attempts (52%) during that span. Since the start of the Big Ten tourney, they have taken nearly 22 3-pointers per game, making 40% of them, and also have grabbed 40% of their missed shots. What does it all mean? Right now, Purdue is an offensive bulldozer that is launching 3-pointers like the Golden State Warriors, hitting shots all over the court and securing second-chance opportunities when it misses. Good luck trying to slow down this group.
Tom Izzo’s best teams feature dominant point guards. He won his only national title with Mateen Cleaves in 2000 and reached the Final Four with former Big Ten players of the year Kalin Lucas (2009, 2010) and Cassius Winston (2019). This season, his dominant PG is Jeremy Fears Jr., who leads the nation in assists with 9.4 per game. In the NCAA tournament wins over North Dakota State and Louisville, Fears had a combined 27 assists and only nine turnovers. This season’s Spartans — who also have a top-15 defense — form a tight-knit group that has followed Fears’ lead on offense. At any moment, Coen Carr can slash to the rim for a dunk or Jaxon Kohler can space the court with a corner 3. Fears himself can create off the dribble and score. The best passer in college basketball, on a squad that has made 42% of its shots beyond the arc over the past month, has been Izzo’s ticket to another Sweet 16 appearance.