Michigan holds off UConn rally for first title in 37 years (0:20)Michigan secures its first NCAA men’s basketball title since 1989. (0:20)
Kevin PulsiferMultiple AuthorsApr 7, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Is it possible to truly measure the level of pain a team and its fans feel after a loss in the NCAA tournament? As a Mets, Jets and 76ers fan, I’m well-versed in sports misery and consider myself equipped with enough firsthand knowledge to compile this ranking of just that, from least to most devastating.
The rankings and tiers are based on pre-tournament expectations, peak win probability (according to ESPN Analytics) and other notable storylines or circumstances. Michigan is the final team left standing. There is no heartbreak for Wolverines fans.
But for the 67 other fanbases who’d hoped to cut down the nets in Indianapolis on April 6, but couldn’t quite make it to the end, how does their pain rank? Let’s find out. (And if it’s any consolation, there’s always next season.)
Tiers: Just happy to be here | Such a tease | Here’s your participation trophy | Silver linings playbook | So close, yet so far | We’re not mad, just disappointed | Emotional roller coaster | What just happened?!
67. Lehigh Mountain Hawks (16-seed, South) How they lost: 67-55 to 16-seed Prairie View A&M in the First Four Peak win probability: 77% with 5:06 left in first half, leading by 7
Lehigh was making its first NCAA tournament appearance since 2012, when CJ McCollum shocked the world as the 15-seed Hawks toppled Duke. Simply returning to the Dance was enough. Remember, Lehigh didn’t win the Patriot League regular-season title but instead went on a three-game run to win the conference tournament. That will ease the sorrow of scoring just 19 points in a 21-minute span across both halves of the First Four loss.
66. Idaho Vandals (15-seed, South) How they lost: 78-47 to 2-seed Houston in the first round Peak win probability: 3% with 15:24 left in first half, leading by 3
The good news: Idaho scored 15 points in the first eight minutes against a vaunted Houston Cougars defense. Not a bad start! The bad news: The Vandals scored 32 points in the final 32 minutes against a vaunted Houston Cougars defense. It was still a great March for Idaho, which finished seventh in the Big Sky and rattled off four wins to take the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA tournament.
65. Prairie View A&M Panthers (16-seed, South) How they lost: 114-55 to 1-seed Florida in the first round Peak win probability: 0.9% with 13:41 left in first half, tied at 15
64. Long Island University Sharks (16-seed, West) How they lost: 92-58 to 1-seed Arizona in the first round Peak win probability: 1% just 34 seconds into the game, tied at 0
The Sharks made their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2018 — when they lost in the First Four — and their first appearance in the round of 64 since 2013. After winning just three games in Rod Strickland’s first year at the helm, LIU improved to seven wins in 2024, 17 last season and 24 this season. This is a perfect example of a team that already capped off a successful season before the tournament.
63. Queens University Royals (15-seed, West) How they lost: 104-71 to 2-seed Purdue in the first round Peak win probability: 2% with 2:57 left in first half, trailing by 5
62. Tennessee State Tigers (15-seed, Midwest) How they lost: 108-74 to 2-seed Iowa State in the first round Peak win probability: 2% with 15:18 left in first half, trailing by 2
61. North Dakota State Bison (14-seed, East) How they lost: 92-67 to 3-seed Michigan State in the first round Peak win probability: 9% with 16:26 left in first half, leading by 3
The Bison would have loved to tack on an upset win to yet another triumphant season in the Summit League, but that was unlikely once the bracket was revealed and their opponent was set. For reference, Tom Izzo has lost just one first-round game as the better seed in the past 20 years. But North Dakota State can rest on the laurels of a program-record 27 wins since moving to Division I. Keep an eye on the Bison next season, as they could potentially return all but one rotation player.
60. Miami (Ohio) RedHawks (11-seed, Midwest) How they lost: 78-56 to 6-seed Tennessee in the first round Peak win probability: 19% with 17:21 left in first half, leading by 4
59. UMBC Retrievers (16-seed, Midwest) How they lost: 86-83 to 16-seed Howard in the First Four Peak win probability: 66% just 44 seconds into the game, leading 4-0
Sure, some alums and fans of chaos would have loved to see UMBC in another matchup against a 1-seed Goliath. But Ryan Odom took his coaching talents to Charlottesville in 2021, and the Retrievers will have to settle for simply an appearance in the NCAA tournament — their first since that magical 2018 season. UMBC did pull within one possession late against Howard in the First Four, but a last-second heave smacked the backboard, to no avail.
58. Penn Quakers (14-seed, South) How they lost: 105-70 to 3-seed Illinois in the first round Peak win probability: 5% with 17:49 left in first half, leading 4-0
57. Howard Bison (16-seed, Midwest) How they lost: 101-80 to 1-seed Michigan in the first round Peak win probability: 3% with 19:27 left in second half, trailing by 2
56. Hofstra Pride (13-seed, Midwest) How they lost: 90-70 to 4-seed Alabama in the first round Peak win probability: 41% with 5:17 left in first half, leading by 9
55. Kennesaw State Owls (14-seed, West) How they lost: 73-64 to 3-seed Gonzaga in the first round Peak win probability: 15% with 2:44 left in first half, leading by 4
The Owls led for the majority of the first half and, even after the Zags pulled ahead, got within a single point shortly after halftime. But, let’s be honest, Gonzaga never truly had to sweat. It would have been a stunning development for a Kennesaw State team that finished outside the top five in a middling Conference USA, with a 10-10 league record. Two NCAA tournament berths in the past four seasons after never going dancing prior, though? That’s nothing to sneeze at.
54. Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (13-seed, West) How they lost: 97-78 to 4-seed Arkansas in the first round Peak win probability: 9% at tipoff
53. Troy Trojans (13-seed, South) How they lost: 76-47 to 4-seed Nebraska in the first round Peak win probability: 15% with 10:24 left in first half, leading by 3
52. Northern Iowa Panthers (12-seed, East) How they lost: 79-53 to 5-seed St. John’s in the first round Peak win probability: 16% just 27 seconds into the game, still scoreless
51. Texas A&M Aggies (10-seed, South) How they lost: 88-57 to 2-seed Houston in the second round Peak win probability: 29% with 16:35 left in first half, leading by 4
50. Saint Mary’s Gaels (7-seed, South) How they lost: 63-50 to 10-seed Texas A&M in the first round Peak win probability: 54% at tipoff
49. VCU Rams (11-seed, South) How they lost: 76-55 to 3-seed Illinois in the second round Peak win probability: 28% with 3:09 left in first half, leading by 2
48. Louisville Cardinals (6-seed, East) How they lost: 77-69 to 3-seed Michigan State in the second round Peak win probability: 63% with 17:46 left in first half, leading 4-0
47. Arkansas Razorbacks (4-seed, West) How they lost: 109-88 to 1-seed Arizona in the Sweet 16 Peak win probability: 24% at tip-off
46. Tennessee Volunteers (6-seed, Midwest) How they lost: 95-62 to 1-seed Michigan in the Elite Eight Peak win probability: 41% with 18:29 left in first half, leading by 3
45. Villanova Wildcats (8-seed, West) How they lost: 86-76 to 9-seed Utah State in the first round Peak win probability: 86% with 16:49 left in second half, leading by 8
44. Miami Hurricanes (7-seed, West) How they lost: 79-69 to 2-seed Purdue in the second round Peak win probability: 52% with 2:06 left in first half, leading by 7
43. Utah State Aggies (9-seed, West) How they lost: 78-66 to 1-seed Arizona in the second round Peak win probability: 18% at tipoff
42. Wright State Raiders (14-seed, Midwest) How they lost: 82-73 to 3-seed Virginia in the first round Peak win probability: 36% with 5:32 left in second half, leading by 1
41. Akron Zips (12-seed, Midwest) How they lost: 91-71 to 5-seed Texas Tech in the first round Peak win probability: 21% with 9:42 left in second half, trailing by 4
40. UCF Knights (10-seed, East) How they lost: 75-71 to 7-seed UCLA in the first round Peak win probability: 47% with 17:07 left in first half, leading 6-0
39. Alabama Crimson Tide (4-seed, Midwest) How they lost: 90-77 to 1-seed Michigan in the Sweet 16 Peak win probability: 53% with 16:16 left in first half, leading 11-2
38. Furman Paladins (15-seed, East) How they lost: 82-71 to 2-seed UConn in the first round Peak win probability: 9% with 5:27 left in second half, trailing by 5
37. Saint Louis Billikens (9-seed, Midwest) How they lost: 95-72 to 1-seed Michigan in the second round Peak win probability: 26% with 10:00 left in first half, leading by 4
36. McNeese Cowboys (12-seed, South) How they lost: 78-68 to 5-seed Vanderbilt in the first round Peak win probability: 52% with 14:36 left in first half, leading by 11
35. South Florida Bulls (11-seed, East) How they lost: 83-79 to 6-seed Louisville in the first round Peak win probability: 25% with 15:53 left in first half, leading by 2
One of the trendiest upset picks nearly lived up to the billing, albeit in shockingly reverse fashion. Traditionally, the underdog builds a lead and tries to hold on. The Bulls found themselves down 21 with 10 minutes remaining, and trailing by 14 with 6:00 left, but whittled the lead down to four by the end. A furious seven-point flurry in the final 25 seconds proved too little, too late, but South Florida proved it belonged. This loss was also its biggest margin of defeat since mid-December.
34. UCLA Bruins (7-seed, East) How they lost: 73-57 to 2-seed UConn in the second round Peak win probability: 54% with 8:16 left in first half, leading by 5
Injuries derailed a promising UCLA season, whether it was Donovan Dent departing in the first half of the Big Ten semifinals, Skyy Clark missing 10 games midseason or Tyler Bilodeau missing the final three games of the year. The Bruins played just seven games with their ideal starting five and went 6-1 in that span, with wins over Illinois, Michigan State and Nebraska. Even sans Bilodeau against UConn, UCLA led in the second half before going scoreless for 5:39. His absence was felt.
