Zach KramApr 14, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseZach Kram is a national NBA writer for ESPN.com, specializing in short- and long-term trends across the league’s analytics landscape. He previously worked at The Ringer covering the NBA and MLB. You can follow Zach on X via @zachkram.Multiple Authors
play0:47Is KAT the key to a deep postseason run by the Knicks?Vincent Goodwill says Karl-Anthony Towns having a dominant postseason could carry New York all the way to the NBA Finals.
play0:34Pistons put up 81 points in the 1st half vs. PacersPistons put up 81 points in the 1st half vs. Pacers
play2:01Stephen A.: Lakers beating the Rockets is pretty close to impossibleStephen A. Smith shares why he believes the Rockets will handle the Lakers in four or five games.
play2:20Stephen A.: The Spurs aren’t afraid of anybody this postseasonStephen A. Smith discusses why he didn’t have an issue with the Spurs resting Victor Wembanyama for the final game of the NBA regular season.
Shumpert: LeBron needs Jokic-level numbers against Rockets (1:35)Iman Shumpert and Vince Goodwill discuss what LeBron James and the Lakers will need to do to stand a chance at beating the Rockets in the playoffs. (1:35)
Is KAT the key to a deep postseason run by the Knicks?Vincent Goodwill says Karl-Anthony Towns having a dominant postseason could carry New York all the way to the NBA Finals.
Vincent Goodwill says Karl-Anthony Towns having a dominant postseason could carry New York all the way to the NBA Finals.
Pistons put up 81 points in the 1st half vs. PacersPistons put up 81 points in the 1st half vs. Pacers
Stephen A.: Lakers beating the Rockets is pretty close to impossibleStephen A. Smith shares why he believes the Rockets will handle the Lakers in four or five games.
Stephen A.: The Spurs aren’t afraid of anybody this postseasonStephen A. Smith discusses why he didn’t have an issue with the Spurs resting Victor Wembanyama for the final game of the NBA regular season.
Stephen A. Smith discusses why he didn’t have an issue with the Spurs resting Victor Wembanyama for the final game of the NBA regular season.
So why should college basketball get all the fun? With the NBA postseason set to begin this week, let’s take a page out of the March Madness playbook and fill out an NBA playoff bracket.
First, we’ll use ESPN’s Basketball Power Index to fill in the four teams projected to advance out of the play-in tournament:
Then, we’ll predict the rest of the playoff outcomes, whittling 16 teams down to one raising the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June.
Despite the gap in seeds, these teams have a similar profile. Since Jan. 1, Charlotte ranks second in the league in net rating, while Detroit is third. The Hornets boast an elite offense, and the Pistons have a strong defense. Both teams are led by a host of former lottery picks, plus one key contributor who was previously on a two-way deal (Daniss Jenkins for Detroit, Moussa Diabate for Charlotte).
Both teams also engaged in a brawl in February, leading to suspensions for Diabate, Miles Bridges, Jalen Duren and Isaiah Stewart.
Those ingredients set the stage for a much more compelling 1 vs. 8 series than usual. But ultimately, the Pistons should advance because their superior size makes them a bad matchup for the scorching Hornets. Detroit was 3-0 against Charlotte in the regular season and outscored the Hornets 188-96 in the paint during those games.
Don’t pay much attention to the season series, which was tied 2-2: These teams have played just once since Nov. 11, and Jayson Tatum didn’t play in any matchup against Philadelphia this season.
The 76ers would be an intriguing upset pick if Joel Embiid were definitely available because he would present an imposing challenge for Boston’s untested front line.
But with the 76ers’ MVP center potentially sidelined because of an emergency appendectomy, at the same time that Boston’s rotation is fully healthy, there’s no reason to expect Philadelphia to challenge the most complete team in the conference.
Is KAT the key to a deep postseason run by the Knicks?
New York and Atlanta staged an entertaining playoff preview last week, when both teams shortened their rotations in a 108-105 Knicks win. The margin between the two teams was incredibly close, as Hawks guard CJ McCollum’s would-be tying half-court heave came a fraction of a second too late.
That game demonstrated that Atlanta has a real chance for an upset in this series. The Hawks have a strong starting five and have been hot for months, and Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker will make a spectacle out of trying to slow down Jalen Brunson. But the Knicks’ superior depth, particularly in the frontcourt, will be the difference: X factor Mitchell Robinson averaged 10.5 rebounds (four offensive) and two blocks in 19 minutes per game against Atlanta this season.
Cleveland has more talent than Toronto, but Toronto swept the season series 3-0; the Celtics are the only other Eastern Conference team that did so against the Cavaliers this season.
All of those factors suggest that the Raptors won’t carry their regular-season success into the postseason, and the Cavaliers should advance with relative ease.
Even though the Pistons are the higher seed, winning eight more regular-season games than the Cavaliers, Cleveland would likely be the favorite in this series: According to DraftKings, the Cavaliers have the second-best odds to reach the Finals in the East, while the Pistons rank fourth.
But I think that consensus view is wrong. First, there’s a much wider gap between Detroit’s rock-solid defense (No. 2 in the league) and Cleveland’s shaky unit (No. 15) than between the two offenses (No. 6 for Cleveland, No. 9 for Detroit).
Second, Cleveland’s late-season surge is something of a mirage. The Cavaliers are 21-9 since Feb. 7, when Harden played his first game for the team, but several of those wins were uncomfortably close games against Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Chicago, Utah and Indiana. The Cavaliers have a plus-4.8 net rating over that stretch, while the Pistons are plus-9.0 in the same span.
And one subset of that stretch convinced me of the Pistons’ playoff readiness: Detroit went 9-3 during Cade Cunningham’s absence because of a collapsed lung, with two of the losses coming in overtime. The top-seeded Pistons pull an ostensible upset — at least, according to Vegas — and reach the conference finals.
The Knicks aren’t afraid of the Celtics, after winning the season series 3-1 and eliminating them in a second-round upset last spring.
But Boston’s consistency, contrasted with New York’s season-long seesawing, makes it a much safer pick. In some respects, the Celtics were very unlucky to lose in the second round last year; they had a much better shot quality throughout the series, per GeniusIQ, and lost Tatum to an Achilles tear midway through. They’ll get their revenge this season, winning the final game at Madison Square Garden, where Tatum suffered his injury a year ago.
Pistons put up 81 points in the 1st half vs. Pacers
Pistons put up 81 points in the 1st half vs. Pacers
This conference finals matchup would have seemed improbable in the preseason, when the Pistons appeared to be a rising but still nascent contender and the Celtics looked poised for a “gap year” without Tatum.
But now, it’s a compelling clash between the NBA’s second-best offense and second-best defense, and the likely top two finishers for the Coach of the Year award.
To determine which team will reach the Finals, the gap between the two teams’ wings could be decisive. Tatum (who didn’t play against Detroit this season), Jaylen Brown and Derrick White are two-way stars, while Ausar Thompson and Duncan Robinson are one-way specialists. Advantage: Boston.
The Thunder’s only loss during their 24-1 start was against Portland, but it came on the second night of a road back-to-back set, and Oklahoma City led that game by 22 points before letting up down the stretch. In the other three meetings, Oklahoma City won by eight, 27 and 29 points, even though Deni Avdija played in every game.
In a playoff setting, the Thunder should continue to coast. Both teams have fearsome perimeter defenders, but Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a superior top option to Avdija, and the Thunder have many more secondary playmakers behind their leading scorer.
On the surface, this seems like it could be a competitive series, as Phoenix beat San Antonio twice in November (though Victor Wembanyama missed one of those contests) and lost by just one point in a meeting last month.
But San Antonio’s recent form suggests the No. 2 seed has ascended to another level, so this series should be over quickly. The Spurs’ only losses since the end of January are to the Nuggets (three times) and Knicks, who both landed No. 3 seeds; they haven’t lost to a non-elite opponent in months.
Once upon a time, Minnesota had Denver’s number, going 8-3 against the Nuggets between the 2024 postseason and 2024-25 campaign. But the Nuggets handled the Timberwolves better this season, winning three of four meetings, and their only loss came with Aaron Gordon out.
The Nuggets enter the playoffs on a 12-game winning streak, while Minnesota stumbled to the finish line. And Denver has the advantage in this series because Gordon is healthy and the Timberwolves’ multi-big defensive strategy against Nikola Jokic has lost its effectiveness. Jokic averaged 36 points, 15 rebounds and 11 assists while shooting 65% against Minnesota this season.
Stephen A.: Lakers beating the Rockets is pretty close to impossible
Stephen A. Smith shares why he believes the Rockets will handle the Lakers in four or five games.
Even with Luka Doncic, Austin Reaves, Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams injured, this series has its share of star power, with one especially compelling storyline: For the first time after three Finals clashes, LeBron James and Kevin Durant will meet in a non-Finals playoff series. Remarkably, both players are now their teams’ No. 1 options, despite a combined age of 78.
Despite their injuries, the Lakers have a legitimate chance in this series. Lineups with James playing without Doncic and Reaves this season had a plus-9.0 net rating, per databallr, and James in lineups with shooters have been successful across his storied career. But I suspect that after a surprisingly competitive start to the series, Houston will adjust and gain the upper hand; the Rockets’ talent advantage is too great for even James to overcome.