Trade up for a star prospect or trade down for more draft picks? Let's make the call for 10 NFL teams

play1:07Why Schrager has ‘most polarizing prospect’ going to Chiefs in his mock draftPeter Schrager breaks down why he has Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson going ninth overall to the Chiefs in his NFL mock draft.

play1:42What are the Cowboys looking for in the first round?Dan Graziano and Domonique Foxworth discuss the Cowboys’ strategy in this year’s NFL draft.

Why Matt Miller likes idea of Jets trading up for Carnell Tate (1:33)Matt Miller examines a scenario where the Jets trade up in the first round to select Ohio State’s Carnell Tate. (1:33)

Why Schrager has ‘most polarizing prospect’ going to Chiefs in his mock draftPeter Schrager breaks down why he has Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson going ninth overall to the Chiefs in his NFL mock draft.

Peter Schrager breaks down why he has Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson going ninth overall to the Chiefs in his NFL mock draft.

What are the Cowboys looking for in the first round?Dan Graziano and Domonique Foxworth discuss the Cowboys’ strategy in this year’s NFL draft.

Should they move down and recoup some missing draft capital? Should they strike and move up if a particular player is available? Does it make sense to try to trade some of their capital into future drafts? For different teams, each of those scenarios seem logical to me.

The Titans understandably want to surround quarterback Cam Ward with premium talent at No. 4, but this roster is riddled with holes or short-term free agent patches. If the Titans can move down into the bottom half of the top 10 and pick up another second-round pick, that’s a move general manager Mike Borgonzi should seriously consider. Tennessee simply has too many issues to fix throughout its roster to focus on adding one particular player early in the draft.

In my mock draft of only trades last week, I tried to account for what the Saints are most likely to do. General manager Mickey Loomis doesn’t ever trade down in the first round, and as a result, I had the Saints moving up. But here I’m arguing for what teams should do. And for the Saints, that’s pretty clearly trading down.

And yet, we should also be realistic. The Saints won six games against the league’s third-easiest schedule (per ESPN’s Football Power Index). Their three wins outside the moribund NFC South came against the Giants, Titans and Jets, who were a combined 10-41 last season. New Orleans finished 28th in DVOA, and while it swept the eventual division-champion Panthers, DVOA had Carolina as only the 25th-best team in the league.

The Saints did that while fielding the league’s 10th-oldest team by snap-weighted age, including the third-oldest defense. And though the contracts of such stalwarts as Demario Davis, Cameron Jordan and Taysom Hill have finally expired after years of restructures, Loomis signed veterans David Edwards and Kaden Elliss, who will be 29 and 31 this season, respectively, to fill holes in the starting lineup.

Picks on the most premium positions late in Round 1 in recent years have delivered players such as George Karlaftis, Felix Anudike-Uzomah and Xavier Worthy — guys who have ranged from solid to disappointing. It’s entirely possible to land standouts in that range, but it’s always going to be easier to hit on players at the most difficult positions in football if you’re picking in the top 10.

Why Schrager has ‘most polarizing prospect’ going to Chiefs in his mock draft

What happens at No. 2 would determine who and why the Jets would be moving up from No. 16. If they go edge rusher or front seven at No. 2, then No. 16 could be a wide receiver to play alongside Garrett Wilson, and the Jets would want to get ahead of the Dolphins (No. 11) and Rams (No. 13).

If coach Aaron Glenn wants to double up on defense and add a defensive back, every team picking from 7-12 and the Ravens (No. 14) and Buccaneers (No. 15) will at least be considering taking a defensive back with their first-round pick. After the Jets traded Sauce Gardner at the deadline, it’s easy to imagine Glenn pushing for LSU cornerback Mansoor Delane, who won’t be around at No. 16.

After years of growth and sustained success, GM Brad Holmes and the Lions are in the middle of a difficult offseason. The 2025 team that had Super Bowl aspirations missed the playoffs, and the young core that propelled the Lions forward on rookie deals is getting much more expensive. Though several standouts have already signed extensions, the likes of Jahmyr Gibbs, Sam LaPorta, Jack Campbell and Brian Branch are all eligible for their second contracts this offseason.

Having too many talented players is a good problem for teams to have, but Holmes now needs to find the next generation of young Lions to supplement those players as they enter their primes. The Lions have been quiet in free agency owing to those financial constraints apart from a deal for center Cade Mays, who steps in for the released Graham Glasgow. Detroit is also down a pair of third-round picks in this year’s draft after trading up for receiver Isaac TeSlaa last year.

It would be a surprise if the Lions traded out of the first round and did something drastic, and given their needs at offensive tackle and edge rusher, they probably don’t want to drop too far to ensure having a shot at a player who can step in as a starter in 2026. But dropping down a few spots and getting a third-round pick back would be the ideal scenario for Holmes.

Though trading Micah Parsons avoided what could have been a record-setting commitment to the top of their roster, the draft capital sent to the Jets for Quinnen Williams all but ensures that the Cowboys will make their defensive tackle one of the highest-paid defenders in football over the next 12 months. Between Williams, Kenny Clark, Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Pickens, the Cowboys have a very expensive core.

What are the Cowboys looking for in the first round?

Dan Graziano and Domonique Foxworth discuss the Cowboys’ strategy in this year’s NFL draft.

Poles was able to extract a strong return for DJ Moore from the Bills, landing a second-round pick for a player the Bears probably wanted to dump for cash and cap purposes. The Bears have pick Nos. 25, 57, 60 and 89 over the first two days of the draft, and though they shouldn’t be treating this as an all-in opportunity, this regime has a chance to move up and target a much-needed difference-maker up front.

Clearly entering what should be a multiyear rebuild this offseason, the new regime of Jeff Hafley and Jon-Eric Sullivan have a bounty of draft picks, both via the Jaylen Waddle trade and from the trades made by the previous regime. The Dolphins enter April’s draft with two first-rounders (Nos. 11 and 30), one second-rounder (No. 43) and four third-rounders (Nos. 75, 87, 90 and 94). If anyone has the capital to move all around this year’s draft, it’s Miami.

The Seahawks have their own picks at the end of each round on Day 1 and Day 2, but their fourth- and fifth-rounders were sent to the Saints for receiver Rashid Shaheed. They also traded a sixth-round selection and their lone pick in the seventh round, meaning Schneider & Co. have only one pick on Day 3 — and it doesn’t come until No. 213. Sliding down a few spots from Nos. 32 or 64 and recouping some of those missing selections in the later rounds of the draft seems like an obvious move.

So with that in mind, I’ve picked 10 teams that should lean heavily toward moving up or down over the 2026 draft weekend. These aren’t predictions — they are suggestions. And there is at least one team where my suggestion would go against decades of how a certain general manager has approached the first round of his drafts. But given where each team stands and how they project to look in 2026, I’m going to make my best argument for why trading up or down is the right move on April 23 in Pittsburgh.

A rebuilding Titans team doesn’t have much to show for years of neglect after peaking under former coach Mike Vrabel. There’s nobody left on this roster from the draft classes of 2020, 2021 or 2022. The 2023 class delivered a Pro Bowl-caliber guard in Peter Skoronski, but the only other draftees left from that year are backups Will Levis and Tyjae Spears. And the 2024 class isn’t looking hot, given that JC Latham has struggled in pass protection at both left and right tackle, and second-round pick T’Vondre Sweat was traded for edge rusher Jermaine Johnson (who is entering the final year of his deal).

Like the Titans, the Saints should prioritize adding premium picks in bulk as opposed to focusing on adding one star-level talent. It would be tough to turn down Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate if he’s still on the board at No. 8, but it would also be a surprise if the Titans, Browns and Commanders all passed on him. There should be plenty of talent at wideout available in the bottom half of Round 1, and moving down would allow the Saints to comprehensively address both receiver and the secondary within the top 75 picks of the draft.

At No. 9, the Chiefs could stay put and hope that one of those players at premium positions like wide receiver or edge rusher fall to them. Armed with extra draft capital from the Trent McDuffie trade, though, this might be an opportunity for general manager Brett Veach to go big. I wouldn’t want to sacrifice that No. 29 pick altogether, but if the Chiefs can use that to move up and then land another Day 2 pick as part of a deal, it might give them a chance at the sort of pass-rushing prospect they wouldn’t normally see at the bottom of Round 1, such as Texas Tech’s David Bailey. Drafting a player out of Tech didn’t go too poorly the last time the Chiefs tried it, right?

The Jets would obviously love to trade up from No. 2 to No. 1 for Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, but I suspect the Raiders might not be willing to pick up the phone. Here, I’m referring to their pick at 16. Gang Green has two second-rounders (Nos. 33 and 44) and two fourth-rounders (Nos. 103 and 140), so general manager Darren Mougey should have the latitude to move around, especially if teams trading up can pay discount prices in a year in which there doesn’t appear to be a ton of demand to jump ahead.

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