Tristan H. CockcroftApr 15, 2026, 11:00 AM ETCloseTristan H. Cockcroft is senior writer for fantasy baseball and football at ESPN. Tristan is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. He is also a two-time LABR and three-time Tout Wars champion.Follow on XMultiple Authors
We spend a substantial portion of March assembling what we think, at the time, was a perfectly-crafted roster. Then, three weeks into the season, slow starts by some of our most integral pieces have us in doubt. Panic — and the responsive advice not to do so — is all the rage in this opening month.
Veteran fantasy baseball managers are exhausted by it — who truly likes hearing “be patient” annually? — while more casual players appreciate the reassurance. While it might seem impossible to find a happy medium between the two, the truth is that possessing an understanding of this critical and most universally-attentive time of year is all you need. A refresher can even be helpful for veteran managers.
The plain truth is that there’s absolutely no difference whatsoever between performance in the season’s first 20 days and any other 20-day span throughout the year. It’s all a matter of perception.
The only reason slumps ring louder now than at any other time is that players’ cumulative stat lines reflect only those 20 days, while a slump in August reflects both those 20 days and the four months that came before it, the latter often hiding the extremes to which that player struggled.
If you’ve already figured out that these stat lines aren’t the respective players’ year-to-date 2026 stats, well done! All of them represent equal-length slumps to this year that each player had in either of the prior two seasons.
This is the primary reason for “be patient” advice, which is generally the rule of thumb with player slumps. If we’re to make rash decisions with Raleigh, or Crow-Armstrong, we should be as apt to do that following an equal-length funk in July as we are today. And if we do it at either time, it gosh darned had better be because of some actionable change to their skill set or outlook.
How do we separate those actionable slumps from the noise? Examine anything that might’ve changed for the player potentially to his detriment.
Perhaps the most common reason for fantasy managers to push the panic button is the pitcher who has lost fastball velocity. It’s understandable, considering none of us wants to be stuck with the next Carlos Estevez (he of the 4.7-mph dip in his 2026 debut, days before he wound up on the injured list).
Across the past five seasons (and taking only top-150 overall selections who made at least three starts over the first 20 days), 76 pitchers endured a decline in velocity of at least half a mile per hour compared to the prior year. Of that group, 72% recaptured at least some of that lost velocity over the next 5 ½ months, and 46% finished within at worst half a mile per hour of their prior year number. From a fantasy angle, 21 of the 76 (28%) wound up scoring 400-plus fantasy points.
Incidentally, this isn’t the first time Crochet’s velocity has been noticeably down. He averaged beneath 95 mph in a pair of early-2025 starts as well (94.0, May 4; 94.7, April 8), yet finished the year the No. 2 scoring pitcher (568 fantasy points).
Garrett Crochet might be such a panic-button candidate, after he surrendered a career-worst 11 runs on Monday in which his average fastball velocity dipped to 94.5 mph, nearly 2 mph behind his 2025 number. While that outing put the preseason Cy Young candidate in “must track” territory for his next couple of starts, it’s also important to recognize that many pitchers — even the league’s elite — have endured velocity lulls sometime between late spring training and the early weeks of May. You’ve heard of this before, as it’s the dreaded “dead arm” period.
Tristan H. CockcroftApr 15, 2026, 11:00 AM ETCloseTristan H. Cockcroft is senior writer for fantasy baseball and football at ESPN. Tristan is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. He is also a two-time LABR and three-time Tout Wars champion.Follow on XMultiple Authors
CloseTristan H. Cockcroft is senior writer for fantasy baseball and football at ESPN. Tristan is a member of the FSWA Hall of Fame. He is also a two-time LABR and three-time Tout Wars champion.Follow on X
Cal Raleigh: hit .123/.206/.193 in 15 games Julio Rodriguez: hit .210/.250/.321 in 19 games Pete Crow-Armstrong: hit .145/.217/.177 with one steal in 18 games Jazz Chisholm Jr.: hit .119/.250/.284 in 19 games