Kiley McDanielApr 17, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseESPN MLB Insider Kiley McDaniel covers MLB prospects, the MLB Draft and more, including trades and free agency. Has worked for three MLB teams. Co-author of Author of ‘Future Value’ Follow on XMultiple Authors
Midway through college and high school baseball seasons, the 2026 MLB draft picture is starting to come into focus.
We’re getting to the part of the spring when players are falling into consensus tiers for evaluators, and when I see MLB crosscheckers and scouting directors, they ask me when my first mock is coming out. This year’s class has a clear No. 1 player followed by a pretty clear next-best prospect and then the potential shuffling picks up at No. 3, with several college players and a few standout prep prospects all in the mix to go in the top 10 picks.
The players below were ranked using the FV (future value) system that I applied for pro prospects. Here are my preseason MLB prospect rankings to see where these players would rank if they turned pro now, though the grades will change (and generally improve as we gain more information and certainty) throughout the spring.
We’ve all waited long enough, so it’s time for a fresh rankings update and a mini-mock draft of the first 13 picks.
This already seems to be down to Cholowsky and Grady Emerson. I think Cholowsky has a notable lead, but it isn’t a slam dunk just yet.
Since almost everyone in baseball has the same report and outlook for Cholowsky, this pick then comes down to exactly what you think Emerson’s potential is and if he’s a quick mover. Some evaluators think Emerson has higher upside and if you think he’ll also move quickly (Konnor Griffin debuted as a 19-year-old, Jackson Holliday at age 20, Kevin McGonigle at 21) then he could also look like a superior prospect in the minors within a year or so.
If he’s both things and he comes at some bonus savings vs. Cholowsky, you can logically justify picking Emerson. Some teams I’ve spoken with see this decision as close enough to really dig in and the White Sox might be one of those teams.
We’ll learn a lot more in the coming weeks; I heard a big White Sox scouting contingent, including GM Chris Getz, was in to see Emerson this week.
This is a pretty common connection, especially in light of the Rays pick history and the industry’s read of the first pick. Some rival clubs picking in this area think the Rays will seriously consider Vahn Lackey and Jackson Flora if they get a sizable bonus savings, with those two prospects seen as the other players within the top group before things really open up.
Given the variability in evaluating high school players and how the Rays covet MLB-ready prospects, I buy the Flora/Lackey buzz, both as earnest interest and possible negotiating leverage with Emerson. I can’t imagine Cholowsky gets past this pick if he doesn’t go No. 1.
There’s still a bit of an empirical bias against pitchers at the top of the draft if talent seems to be similar between two players. Lackey seems to have a slight edge over Flora for most evaluators, due in large part to this, but both are common third- and fourth-ranked players on boards.
I think the Twins would take Emerson if he’s available here, I think Flora would also get a long look, and there’s some buzz Chris Hacopian would be an option here on a deal.
The Giants would really like to get a shot at Emerson and I think they’d be happy to get Lackey or Flora, but they’re also taking a very long look at Jacob Lombard, younger brother of Yankees’ top prospect George Lombard Jr.
This is perceived to be one of those landing spots for Lombard, along with the first spot for another toolsy prep hitter in Eric Booth Jr.
Things start to open up here, as the top tier of four is almost certainly selected by now and the Royals have an extra pick at No. 30, so they could opt for an underslot deal here to spend more later. The Royals are always trying to compete and it wouldn’t surprise me if they went with a potential quick-mover on a deal at this pick to then set up more typical high school picks down the board.
Peterson has been rising of late, but his sweet spot might be a few picks after this. I think this is also the first pick in which you could see a high school pitcher (Gio Rojas or Logan Schmidt) and that would also be on a cut-rate deal.
He fits Baltimore’s style (multiple sources said he was a “great fit” at this pick as their first response to this mock) and probably shouldn’t last much beyond here or the next couple of picks. Booth also fits Baltimore’s style if Lebron goes earlier.
Booth has had a ton of heat all spring as he has added significant strength (one scouting director compared his physique to that of an SEC running back) with plus bat speed and raw power along with plus-plus foot speed.
Hacopian has one of the best hit/power/position combinations in the draft class, though he’s probably a third baseman. He probably lands somewhere in the top 10 with Booth and Burress (Atlanta tried to sign him out of high school) both fitting here, too, and I think there’s a shot that a prep pitcher (again, Rojas and Schmidt) also could be a cut-rate option.
The Nats also have a new regime entering its first draft, but the decision-makers largely came from Boston, so rival teams are expecting Washington to follow what has worked for the Red Sox in recent drafts. The bat speed of Booth and intriguing two-way potential of Jared Grindlinger could also fit that approach.
It’s hard to not just give the Angels a quick-moving college player given their run of pushing players quickly to the majors. Depending on how he looks in a return from a February ribcage injury, Flukey could go in the middle of the top 10 or a bit lower than this, but he is a polished potential midrotation arm regardless. Gracia, Eric Becker, Chris Rembert and rising RHP Logan Reddemann could also fit.
By drafting him, a team would basically get two elite prospects in one and probably would let him do both (with a lean toward hitting) for a couple of seasons to see how things break. That appealing risk profile means I don’t think he gets much past this pick even with the abbreviated eval period. The Cards are also tied to prep OF Trevor Condon, who is also rising up boards as he had been red-hot the last few weeks.
You don’t see this kind of prospect every year, so the top two players in this draft make it a great year to be picking really high. That said, the depth beyond that is lacking a bit, so it’s a tough break if you’re picking later in the top 10.
This is the tier that runs roughly 40 through 120 on a minor league prospect top 100 ranking, for reference. Lackey has been a revelation this year, posting a 1.274 OPS heading into this weekend’s series with tools to match: an above-average runner with a plus arm who will stick behind the plate and has above-average power, pitch selection and bat control as a hitter.
There’s not a 70-grade tool, he’s new to being this elite, and catchers often take non-linear developmental roads, but Lackey is very easy to pick for any team no matter their preference in prospect style.
Flora was a common pick-to-click this spring because of his combination of lively stuff, clean arm action and a loose, projectable frame. He made the leap this spring with improved strike quality while still sitting 94-98 and hitting 100 mph, with an above-average changeup, and slider that’s almost a sweeper at 83-87 mph.
He could be in a big league rotation pretty quickly and every team is looking for rotation depth; Flora is also a fit for almost every team.
Lebron is hard to rank because he still has above-average power, plus speed and an above-average glove at shortstop (a rare combination in college) but his in-zone miss rate and overall feel to hit have continued to be below average.
Some teams look more for traits than polish in position players because they think they can teach/mold a swing and approach more than others; Lebron fits well with a team like that.
I cut it off here with the idea being this represents the full first two rounds plus comp rounds, which is 75 picks, plus a handful more to make up for the high school players I have ranked who won’t sign. This also feels around the area where you start getting lots of tough-to-sign high school players who all feel pretty similar in talent but some just aren’t being scouted anymore and opinions vary a lot from team to team.
Opinions are quite split on Maniscalco, originally a 2027 prospect who reclassified and is the youngest player in this ranking, narrowly ahead of Grindlinger. He wasn’t very good at the plate early in the spring when I and many others piled in for first looks; many teams buried him in the third round, where he’s likely not signable. Some teams are still considering him inside the top 30 picks, though, fueled by models that love young-for-the-class, switch-hitting shortstops.
I’ll cut things off at this pick as the group of names in contention is ballooning. Grindlinger just turned 17 and is within a few weeks of being the youngest early-round prospect in the draft (just behind Rocco Maniscalco). He’s a real first-round caliber outfielder with plus bat-to-ball ability and above-average power/speed potential, along with a pitching evaluation somewhere in the top two rounds. There is still some disagreement on this report and where he goes as Grindlinger was only seriously scouted starting this spring after he reclassified late in the process.
If you were going to pick nits (scouts are as good at this as anyone), he’s not the long, lean type of athlete you’d prefer and you could argue he has a bunch of above-average to plus tools, but no plus-plus, standout ability. Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman are the names that come up most often as comparable players. The downside for Cholowsky is basically a really solid 2-3 win player who never has that breakthrough season, but there’s legit 5-win upside, which would make him a franchise player. It’s really hard to pass on that high of a floor with perennial All-Star upside.