Greg WyshynskiApr 18, 2026, 07:30 AM ETCloseGreg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL writer.Follow on XMultiple Authors
play2:19Sidney Crosby explains why Penguins’ rivalry with the Flyers is so specialSidney Crosby joins “The Pat McAfee Show” to preview the Penguins’ playoff matchup against the Flyers.
T.J. Oshie: Avalanche are an ‘absolute wagon from top to bottom’ (0:41)T.J. Oshie joins Scott Van Pelt to discuss why the Avalanche are so dangerous. (0:41)
Sidney Crosby explains why Penguins’ rivalry with the Flyers is so specialSidney Crosby joins “The Pat McAfee Show” to preview the Penguins’ playoff matchup against the Flyers.
Sidney Crosby joins “The Pat McAfee Show” to preview the Penguins’ playoff matchup against the Flyers.
The Florida Panthers, back-to-back Stanley Cup champions, aren’t here. The Buffalo Sabres, who last made the playoffs when “Fast Five” was in theaters, are here.
The Toronto Maple Leafs, who appeared in nine straight NHL postseasons, aren’t here. The Utah Mammoth, who didn’t exist three years ago, are here.
But that’s why the Stanley Cup tournament is the greatest postseason in sports: the unpredictability. How a bad bounce or a hot goalie can turn a series around in an instant. Which, admittedly, makes the whole “predicting every series” thing a bit fraught, but hey, here we are.
Here is how the Stanley Cup playoffs will play out, from the opening round through the last game of the Stanley Cup Final. I apologize in advance for spoiling the next two months for you, as obviously all of this is going to happen exactly to script and none of these picks will be incorrect.
I don’t think the Bruins defend well enough to pull an upset here: They’re 26th in the NHL in expected goals against per 60 minutes since the Olympic break. For the season, their expected goals percentage was 46.7%, nestled in between the San Jose Sharks and Toronto Maple Leafs, which is not the neighborhood you want to be as a playoff team.
Bruins coach Marco Sturm said this week that “we are bigger, stronger, and we are more physical.” Even if that were true — and a glance at the rosters says it isn’t — the Sabres showed in their epic regular-season battles against the Lightning that they can take a punch, wipe their mouths and score the next goal. Despite their postseason pedigree, they’re ready for this.
The key to this series is whether coach Marty St. Louis uses them, how he uses them and what the rest of the lineup does when they’re not on the ice.
Beyond the top line, the Lightning have depth at forward and the Canadiens, until proven otherwise, do not. Sure, one can expect Ivan Demidov — the second-best rookie in the league this season — to do more than he did last season, which was nothing. But the bottom six for Montreal don’t match the quality of Tampa Bay’s, and not just because they don’t have playoff X factor Corey Perry.
Speaking of Perry: It would be shocking if coach Jon Cooper’s game plan wasn’t to physically maul players like Caufield and star defenseman Lane Hutson at every opportunity. The Lightning can be guilty of running around a little too much, sacrificing some of their identity as an offensive juggernaut (3.49 goals per game), but that’s exactly what’s necessary against the Habs.
Sometimes you hear things during a season that stick with you. Like when one NHL team executive told me the team they wanted to avoid in the playoffs would be the Senators, whose underlying numbers reveal an extremely difficult team to play against if their play was supported by quality goaltending.
They got enough of it to make the playoff cut, as Linus Ullmark went 12-4-3 with a .902 save percentage since the Olympic break. But the issue I had with Ottawa casting its lot with Ullmark as a franchise goalie was his postseason numbers, which are a horror show: .885 save percentage and a 3.28 goals-against average in 16 games. Last season, in six games for Ottawa, he had a .880 save percentage.
Look, goalies with bad playoff numbers can finally find their games and great success — looking at you, Marc-Andre Fleury. But I can’t trust it enough with Ullmark to put Ottawa over Carolina, although more than a few people do.
You know what coach Rod Brind’Amour does best, besides embarrassing his players in the weight room? Winning in the opening round of the playoffs. His teams have never lost an opening-round series, counting their qualifying round win against the Rangers in the 2020 COVID postseason. That streak won’t stop here, despite the Senators’ best efforts.
The Penguins are one of the NHL’s top offensive powers this season under first-year coach Dan Muse, finishing third in the NHL in goals per game (3.54). They like to pass the puck. The Flyers are one of the NHL’s stingiest defensive teams, with especially impressive underlying numbers under first-year coach Rick Tocchet. They like to prevent you from passing the puck.
The Penguins are third in the NHL at inner slot shots at 5-on-5 (11.6 per 60 minutes). The Flyers are third best at preventing them (8.5 per 60). The Penguins are fourth in expected goals (2.9 per 60). The Flyers are third in expected goals against (2.4). To use the old wrestling cliché, it’s the irresistible force vs. the immovable object.
Look, getting Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin back into the playoffs is a delight. We’ve missed you. You make things much more interesting. And so one becomes compelled to rubber-stamp a series win against the Flyers, who seem like the inferior team on paper. But I’m swerving here. I like the Flyers.
Defense wins championships, and Philadelphia is easily the superior defensive team in this series. That includes goaltending, where Dan Vladar (13.8 goals saved above expected) ended up on my Hart Trophy ballot for fixing the most glaring weakness on this roster. Meanwhile, the Penguins have Stuart Skinner and Arturs Silovs in goal, whose postseason experiences could put most roller coasters to shame.
My lack of faith in the Penguins’ goaltending leaves open the possibility that the Flyers can score enough here to get by Pittsburgh. I think they have enough elite offensive talent — the resurgent Trevor Zegras, the defiant Matvei Michkov and Porter Martone, the NCAA import with 10 points in his first nine NHL games — to prey on Penguin mistakes for transition goals. They also have a healthy Tyson Foerster, their glue guy, as Philly has gone 18-9-2 with him in the lineup.
But they don’t have Sidney Crosby, which is the reason I’m not exactly oozing with confidence making this pick. But nonetheless, the pick is made.
Sidney Crosby explains why Penguins’ rivalry with the Flyers is so special
On March 8, these two teams met in Buffalo and produced an instant classic with 15 goals and 102 penalty minutes. But more importantly, it was a proof-of-concept game for the Sabres. The Lightning wanted to come in and brutalize their divisional opponent. Buffalo took the punishment, dished out some of its own and grew from the experience.
Buffalo went 3-0-1 against the Lightning in the regular season. Now, we all know the past isn’t prologue in the Stanley Cup playoffs, but that’s important to note when one of the keys to the series is intimidation, either through depth of talent or superstar players or championship pedigree. The Sabres will have banked a playoff series win and hung with the Lightning — albeit a team that had its share of significant lineup absences — this season.
So this is going to be a long series. If Buffalo is, in fact, the next version of the 2019 St. Louis Blues — a team that finds itself within the regular season, transforms into a wagon and can’t be stopped — it has the talent and the mindset to advance past the Lightning.
But ultimately, I lean Tampa Bay here. Its collection of two-way players, lineup depth and elite scoring talent gives it an advantage, as does Andrei Vasilevskiy. I’ll take Jon Cooper and his staff figuring out how to grind down the Sabres’ “pond hockey” offense. Bonus points if Cooper wears his Stadium Series outfit.
Just an absolute grind of a series. Watching a Rick Tocchet team against a Rod Brind’Amour team is like watching someone try to saw an oak tree with a nail file.
To paraphrase Batman villain Bane: “I was born flooding the defensive zone with bodies and then counterpunching offensively to win one-goal games … you merely adopted it.”
The Flyers are built to beat a team like the Penguins. I don’t think they have the maturation as a contender — or the scoring depth — to take out this Hurricanes team.
The Hurricanes finally avoid having to play the Panthers and run smack-dab into Florida’s other powerhouse.
I picked Carolina to win the East before the season, and I’m sticking with that. What has held the Hurricanes back in previous seasons was their inability to score a key goal at a key juncture of a series. So they went big-name hunting for players like Jake Guentzel (at the 2024 trade deadline) and Mikko Rantanen, who obviously didn’t stick around. Though they don’t have that kind of star on this roster, they might have the most offensive depth of any Rod Brind’Amour-coached team.
Taylor Hall and Logan Stankoven were both involved in Rantanen-related trades. Nikolaj Ehlers was a tremendous offseason signing, and best of all played 82 games. Jackson Blake took a leap forward this season with an increased role. Players like K’Andre Miller and Alexander Nikishin are delivering offense from the back end.
Assuming the goaltending doesn’t cost them against the Lightning, I like Carolina to finally break through the Eastern Conference ceiling. Those fans deserve a banner.
Congratulations to the Kings for avoiding a fifth straight elimination at the hands of the Oilers. Condolences to the Kings for having to play the Presidents’ Trophy-winning Avalanche instead.
The Kings have one real advantage in this series and it’s supernatural. Since 1985-86, there have been 39 teams to finish with the NHL’s best record and win the Presidents’ Trophy. Only eight of them went on to win the Stanley Cup — and an equal number of them lost in the opening round of the playoffs.