Bill ConnellyApr 21, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on XMultiple Authors
Evaluating SEC favorites Texas and Georgia’s offseason improvements (2:31)Matt Stinchcomb joins “The Paul Finebaum Show” to discuss the transfer portal additions across the SEC, as the Longhorns return 68% of their production and the Bulldogs continue to improve. (2:31)
Is Alabama’s Keelon Russell the most important player of 2026?
Does Oregon have whatever it lacked in 2024 and 2025?
Does Georgia have playmakers, or is this another “blue-chip service academy” offense?
What does Pete Golding’s Ole Miss actually look like?
Jaden Craig and Lincoln Kienholz might be the two most interesting power-conference QBs
Can Brian Hartline build a power-conference type of roster at South Florida?
Kalen DeBoer didn’t load up on line experience in the portal either: Even with six incoming transfers, the O-line returns only 21 total starts from last season, and the offense could end up starting between five and seven freshman or sophomores overall. Yikes.
Oregon has been absolutely awesome the past two seasons. Dan Lanning’s Ducks are 26-3 with losses only to eventual national champions (Ohio State in 2024, Indiana twice in 2025). If the Big Ten is to continue its unique national title streak in 2026 and make it four straight titles from four different teams, the Ducks are obviously at the front of the line.
When I was writing the USC section of last year’s Big Ten preview, I couldn’t shake the impression that Lincoln Riley, with job security (via his enormous buyout) and the makings of a spectacular recruiting class, was building toward something big in 2026. “Riley should have enough to field another top-20 offense, develop further, win another seven or eight games and buy time for the cavalry to arrive in 2026,” I wrote.
The Trojans actually had a top-10 offense and won nine games, and Riley indeed locked down the top-ranked recruiting class, too. Big year coming, then? I can’t decide.
In two years under D’Anton Lynn, the Trojans jumped from 105th in defensive SP+ in 2023 to 36th last season, and they improved in 2025 despite only one guy starting all 13 games and despite lots of freshmen and sophomores in the rotation.
Georgia might be the most trustworthy team in the country. Even if the effects of the transfer portal era have siphoned away some of its depth and left it less experienced overall, we know it is going to brawl its way to results. It has reached five straight SEC championship games, winning three, and it has won the past two despite defensive inexperience and a lack of big plays on offense.
There has still been a bit of a drop-off, however. After going 42-2 from 2021 to 23, it merely went 23-5 in 2024-25, finishing sixth in SP+ both years. That isn’t exactly an embarrassment, but in both seasons the Dawgs suffered from a lack of big plays and easy points.
Last year’s run game was solid and efficient, and in wideout Zachariah Branch, Gunner Stockton had an excellent, quick-pitch efficiency option. But Stockton averaged just 10.8 yards per completion, and while leading rusher Nate Frazier almost never lost yardage, he didn’t break long gainers either. Statistically, this was basically a service academy offense — or a blue-chip Iowa — with its countless ways of gaining five yards but almost no chunk plays.
Did Golding get Chambliss, Lacy and new offensive coordinator John David Baker enough fun toys? Will a remodeled secondary hold up? Fourth downs and aggression were big parts of the Kiffin model; how will Golding tinker with that formula? There’s still massive upside here, but I don’t feel either a semifinal repeat or a stumble to 7-5 would be a huge surprise. The Rebels could be the biggest wild card in the SEC.
BYU avoids Texas Tech in conference play and plays only three of the Big 12’s other six projected top-40 teams. It’s hard not to envision the Cougars as serious contenders for a return to the conference title game. Does that mean they’ll stink?
Jeff Brohm, meanwhile, looked in both directions for an answer at QB. He brought in former West Georgia quarterback Davin Wydner, a 6-foot-5 former Ole Miss signee who evidently looked great in the spring game. But most hopes are pinned on former blue-chipper Lincoln Kienholz, a career backup at Ohio State. Kienholz was perfectly solid in a tiny sample in Columbus, and both he and Wydner bring a level of mobility to the table that last year’s primary QB, Miller Moss, most certainly did not.
Miami will start out as the ACC’s clear favorite, but any of five or six teams could become the obvious No. 2, and Louisville, having won 28 games in Brohm’s first three seasons, is a clear candidate if the roll of the dice on Kienholz (or, technically, Wydner) pays off.
Has he already? My conference previews will once again feature what I call Continuity Tables, in which I list out not only each team’s returning production figures but also its total 2025 starts returning and incoming (FBS only) and its total number of redshirt freshmen. (Example here.) Some of this information isn’t overtly predictive, but it’s a little bit of extra information on how each roster has been put together.
As you would expect, power-conference teams have a bit more beef, too: They average 4.2 300-pound defensive linemen on their roster compared with 2.5 for the G6.
A few mid-major teams, however, have managed to put together rosters with a lot of power-conference characteristics. Nine, in fact, combined at least 120 returning and incoming FBS starts, 10 redshirt freshmen and three 300-pounders on D: Boise State, Colorado State, Eastern Michigan, Kennesaw State, Memphis, Miami (Ohio), San Diego State, Temple and USF.
That he was able to bring in players who started 104 FBS games last year, 24th in FBS and second (behind only Memphis) in the Group of 6 ranks, was a good sign, and his Bulls roster has a nice base of 14 redshirt freshmen, plus four 300-pound defensive tackles and four incoming offensive linemen listed at 310 or higher. You still have to deploy guys in a favorable way, but USF will look like a power-conference team in 2026. I assume that will remain the case for as long as Hartline is there.
If they can do it, surely North Dakota State can, too, right? The Bison were the behemoths of FCS for most of 15 seasons, winning 10 national titles between 2011 and 2024 and leaving FCS after a 2025 season that was, on paper, one of their most dominant yet. They were upset by eventual finalist Illinois State early in their final FCS playoff appearance, but they finished the year 65th among all college football teams in SP+.
This program always produces more stars and seems ready to invest massively to make this FBS move work. For as good as Payton turned out to be, he was relatively unknown at this point last season, and senior Nathan Hayes certainly looked solid as an understudy. So maybe NDSU just keeps NDSU’ing right into the FBS.
Last season, quarterback Ty Simpson had to carry a massive load for the Crimson Tide. They had their worst run game in a generation — 97th in rushing success rate, 127th in yards per carry (not including sacks) — and star receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams battled a severe case of the yips, suffering a dismal 13.0% drop rate, easily the worst in the nation among players with at least 75 targets. Simpson got banged up and wore down as the year went on, and Bama averaged just 18.7 points in its last six games against FBS opponents. Strong defense and a run of close wins allowed Alabama to eke out a College Football Playoff bid, but poor late performances resulted in its worst SP+ ranking (20th) in 18 years. The defense should be excellent again, but now Simpson and almost the entire starting offensive line are gone.
One of those youngsters, however, is Keelon Russell. The No. 2 prospect in the 2025 recruiting class, Russell was an understudy for both Simpson and Austin Mack last season but shined in the spring. The battle for the starting job isn’t over, and Mack certainly still has a chance to win the job. But to overcome the massive uncertainty and inexperience on the depth chart, Bama might need the raw upside that Russell supposedly brings to the table. If he’s the real deal — and we’ve seen plenty of redshirt freshmen absolutely explode onto the scene in recent seasons — that would paper over some cracks. And Bama has more cracks than we’re used to seeing.
Quarterback Dante Moore returns, as do sophomore running backs Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. (combined: 1,323 yards, 7.0 per carry), quite a few stars from a banged up receiving corps, All-American center Iapani Laloulu, edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei, defensive tackles A’Mauri Washington and Bear Alexander, linebacker Teitum Tuioti and an incredible set of sophomore DBs led by corner Brandon Finney Jr. And while Lanning didn’t have to do much in the transfer portal, he still grabbed some extremely high-upside players such as safety Koi Perich (Minnesota), receiver Iverson Hooks (UAB) and nickel back Carl Williams IV (Baylor).
This is easily one of the most proven rosters in the country, maybe the most proven. But it’s hard to shake the taste of a couple of blowout losses. Oregon’s 2024 season ended when the Ducks fell behind Ohio State 34-0 in the Rose Bowl quarterfinal and lost 41-21. Last season ended when they fell behind Indiana 42-7 in the Peach Bowl semifinal and lost 56-22. Two games don’t overrule all the brilliance they otherwise showed, but when it counted the most, they were overwhelmed at the line of scrimmage and didn’t have enough playmakers to make up for it.
The offense was good enough that it lost its top two receivers, Biletnikoff Award-winning Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane, to the pros, and the only wideouts who caught more than three passes last season are sophomore Tanook Hines and NC State transfer Terrell Anderson. An all-world freshman such as Kayden Dixon-Wyatt or Ethan Feaster will need to come through quickly. But quarterback Jayden Maiava returns, and Riley almost never has anything but an awesome offense. The major questions, as always, will come on defense.