Flyers winning the East? Sabres cooked? Judging early Stanley Cup playoff overreactions

Greg WyshynskiApr 23, 2026, 07:30 AM ETCloseGreg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL writer.Follow on XMultiple Authors

play1:3111 minor penalties lead to a Zegras power-play goal for Philly11 minor penalties lead to a Zegras power-play goal for Philly

play0:49Juraj Slafkovsky’s hat trick lifts Canadiens to Game 1 winJuraj Slafkovsky scores a hat trick to propel the Canadiens past the Lightning in Game 1.

play0:50Logan Cooley nets the go-ahead goal for Mammoth Logan Cooley tallies goal vs. Golden Knights

play0:57Nicolas Roy’s OT winner gives Avs 2-0 series leadNicolas Roy wins it in overtime for the Avalanche as Colorado goes up 2-0 in the series against Los Angeles.

play1:21Jordan Martinook’s 2OT winner sends Canes to 2-0 series leadJordan Martinook delivers the double-overtime winner to send the Hurricanes up 2-0. 

Wyatt Johnston wins it in 2OT for Dallas (0:35)Wyatt Johnston delivers the double-overtime winner to give the Stars a 4-3 victory over the Wild in Game 3. (0:35)

11 minor penalties lead to a Zegras power-play goal for Philly11 minor penalties lead to a Zegras power-play goal for Philly

Juraj Slafkovsky’s hat trick lifts Canadiens to Game 1 winJuraj Slafkovsky scores a hat trick to propel the Canadiens past the Lightning in Game 1.

Nicolas Roy’s OT winner gives Avs 2-0 series leadNicolas Roy wins it in overtime for the Avalanche as Colorado goes up 2-0 in the series against Los Angeles.

Nicolas Roy wins it in overtime for the Avalanche as Colorado goes up 2-0 in the series against Los Angeles.

Jordan Martinook’s 2OT winner sends Canes to 2-0 series leadJordan Martinook delivers the double-overtime winner to send the Hurricanes up 2-0. 

Winner of Dallas Stars-Minnesota Wild takes the West

Juraj Slafkovsky is the NHL’s most underrated player

The Buffalo Sabres are a feel-good story, nothing more

The Los Angeles Kings are never getting out of the first round again

Here are 10 overreactions to the 2026 NHL playoffs based on what’s happened in the first few games and what could happen down the line. We’ll judge each one on a scale between being absolutely reasonable to totally misguided. Enjoy!

The Philadelphia Flyers can eliminate the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday night. That in itself is a shock, as 22 of 27 ESPN pundits picked the Penguins to advance. That the Flyers might vanquish their archrivals in a first-round sweep is frankly astonishing, given what both teams accomplished in the regular season.

The Flyers do a lot of things that a championship contender should do. Their defensive system limits high-danger scoring chances at 5-on-5. They can flex some offensive depth, as a team that’s not overly reliant on one scoring line — and they got even deeper with the arrival of NCAA star Porter Martone, who fits the lineup and the Flyers’ aesthetic perfectly. They can play physical and antagonize opponents. They have a goalie in Dan Vladar who can steal games.

The verdict: OVERREACTION. The Flyers are a dangerous team, but their first-round success can be chalked up to them being the perfect foil for Sidney Crosby and the Penguins. They shut down parts of the ice where the Penguins like to thrive offensively. Their speed and depth have both been an advantage over Pittsburgh’s top-heavy team. The Penguins’ goaltending has made Vladar look like a Vezina Trophy winner by comparison.

But would this success transfer over against a more seasoned and deep team such as the Hurricanes, Lightning or Bruins, with more accomplished goaltending? That’s unclear. The Flyers still make mistakes that go along with their lack of playoff experience. A better team can take advantage of them.

Assuming Vladar stays healthy — and he had a hand injury scare in the third period of Game 3 — the Flyers are going to be a tough out. But ultimately this postseason will be proof of concept for GM Danny Briere, as this young roster earns valuable experience before bowing out.

11 minor penalties lead to a Zegras power-play goal for Philly

11 minor penalties lead to a Zegras power-play goal for Philly

The Edmonton Oilers have eight goals in two games against the Ducks, scoring four in each of them. And yet they’ve tallied eight times with Ty Emberson having outscored Connor McDavid in the series.

McDavid won the Art Ross Trophy as the NHL’s leading scorer in the regular season with 138 points in 82 games, including 48 goals. He had three shots on goal on six shot attempts in Edmonton’s Game 1 win. He had four shots in their Game 2 loss, skating to a minus-2. The Oilers have had six power-play opportunities in the series and have yet to score, despite the presence of Connor McDavid.

The verdict: OVERREACTION. C’mon, it’s Connor McDavid. But more to the point: The Anaheim Ducks remain porous defensively. They were underwater in expected goals percentage, high-danger chances and puck possession in the first two games. It’s just a matter of time before one or two of these goals are crafted by McDavid, especially on the power play,

FYI: McDavid has never gone more than two games without a point over the course of his 45-game NHL playoff career. Something to keep in mind for Friday night in Anaheim.

We expected it would be a battle between the third- and seventh-best teams in the NHL when they were forced to meet in the first round, and what a battle it has been. Dallas took a 2-1 series lead with a double-overtime win, as Wyatt Johnston scored on the power play after Danila Yurov had the waking nightmare of putting the puck over the glass in a playoff OT.

That’s not to shortchange the Stars, who have made three straight conference finals and knocked out the Avalanche last season in the first round. Nor is meant to disrespect the Wild, who are absolutely loaded with elite talent like Kirill Kaprizov, Quinn Hughes, Matt Boldy and Brock Faber.

Could the winner of this series defeat the mighty Avalanche, should they advance past the Kings? Sure. Will that happen? Given what we’ve seen from the Avs now and it the regular season, it’s not likely … although Dallas is certainly showing they’ve got the stuff to do it.

How many times have you heard the names Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield without hearing the name of their linemate in the same breath?

Such is the lot in life for Juraj Slafkovsky. The first overall pick in 2022 took a little while to percolate in the NHL after arriving as an 18-year-old. His rookie season in 2022-23 was 39 games long and he scored just 10 points, failing to earn a single Calder Trophy vote. His point total and plus-minus rating improved year over year from 2023-25.

This season was his breakout: 30 goals, 43 assists for 73 points in 82 games. His Game 1 hat trick powered the Canadiens over the Lightning, giving him five goals in seven career playoff games.

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. Do people know Juraj Slafkovsky’s name? They should, given his lofty draft status and his “beast mode” performances in the Olympic men’s hockey tournament. And yet it feels like people haven’t quite yet caught on to how incredible he’s been this season for the Habs and on that line with Suzuki and Caufield. It’s just a matter of time before they do — perhaps even in this postseason.

Juraj Slafkovsky’s hat trick lifts Canadiens to Game 1 win

Juraj Slafkovsky scores a hat trick to propel the Canadiens past the Lightning in Game 1.

When it comes to Stanley Cup playoff moments, the cathartic rush of Buffalo’s first playoff win since 2011 is hard to top. Tage Thompson single-handedly rallying his team. The arena shaking from the fans’ delirium when the Sabres took the lead and won Game 1. The supporters in the team’s watch party, going tarps off in 30-degree weather while snow gently fell during their victory celebration.

And then Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen couldn’t stop a beach ball in Game 2. The Boston Bruins evened the series and the vibes shifted.

Their power play is ice-cold, failing to score in its past 31 opportunities. That’s basically an invitation to the Bruins to take liberties with Sabres players without repercussions on the scoreboard.

The verdict: OVERREACTION. Some losses are better than others, or at least more beneficial. The adrenaline rush of Buffalo’s third-period rally in Game 1 wasn’t going to carry it for the rest of the series. This is an inexperienced playoff team, and part of that inexperience is learning how to manage the emotional journey of a postseason series. Bad goaltending led to a 3-0 deficit in Game 2. The Sabres tried to mount a rally again in the third, but it was too steep a climb.

So the lessons are learned: It’s a 60-minute game. Sometimes adversity hits unexpectedly. Teams don’t win the Cup on good vibes alone. And perhaps most importantly, every game is its own battle. Forget the last one.

The Sabres are the better team. The Bruins are, I think, the savvier one. We’ll find out in the next two games if the Sabres are something more than just a feel-good story. I suspect they are.

It all added up to a successful if uninspiring season. So with eight games left in the season, the Golden Knights hit the nuclear option: firing Bruce Cassidy and hiring John Tortorella.

And it worked! Torts went 7-0-1, as the Knights found their intensity and their defensive game to win the Pacific Division and meet the Utah Mammoth (wild card No. 1) in the opening round. Their series is tied at 1-1 … and the Golden Knights could be in trouble.

The Mammoth have been the better 5-on-5 team in the series. They led Game 1 entering the third period, only to have their inexperience show by allowing two goals in 1:47 to squander the lead and fumble the game. They played the Knights evenly through two periods in Game 2 until Logan Cooley’s third-period game-winner.

Logan Cooley nets the go-ahead goal for Mammoth Logan Cooley tallies goal vs. Golden Knights

The verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION. The Mammoth have flexed their speed advantage at even strength. They’ve gotten outstanding goaltending from Karel Vejmelka, as they have all season. They’ve managed a split in the series despite the fact their top line — Nick Schmaltz, Clayton Keller and Lawson Crouse — hasn’t made an impact.

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