Seth WalderApr 25, 2026, 03:50 PM ETCloseSeth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on “ESPN Bet Live” and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.Multiple Authors
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Eagles acquire Edge Greenard for two third-round picks
Titans shore up pass rush; Bills trade down for third time
The 2026 NFL draft is underway, and teams are spicing things up with trades. There was already a ton of action on that front entering Thursday, with seven of the 32 first-round spots switching hands in earlier deals. The movement continued in Round 1 once things got rolling. We’re here to size up the biggest trades from all angles.
A lot of people say that we’ll find out who won draft-day trades in three or four years. Nonsense! NFL general managers don’t have the benefit of hindsight when making the trades, so why should analysts have it when evaluating them? I’m grading these deals immediately, based on the information available — just as the teams are doing.
To evaluate these deals, I’ll be relying heavily on our Approximate Value-based draft pick calculations, along with important factors, such as positional value, salary cap implications and short- and long-term team outlook. Trades during the draft can be enormously consequential and set the direction for a franchise for years to come, so don’t sleep on the importance of faring well here.
This page will be updated with deals as they come in throughout the draft, but we’re grading only the biggest ones.
Wilson was selected with the seventh overall pick three years ago but never delivered on the pass-rushing promise he had as a prospect. His 5.8% pass rush win rate as a rookie would have ranked second worst among edge rushers had he played enough to qualify, and he managed 3.5 sacks that season. The following season was not much better — 4.5 sacks but a fourth percentile pass rush win rate.
Wilson’s improvement in pass rushing from abysmal to merely below average probably makes him a rotational player, but I remain skeptical given the really low level of play he demonstrated in his first two seasons in the league.
The Saints will get Wilson for cheap in the final year of his rookie contract. While he mostly played as a 9-technique edge rusher with the Raiders, he spent some time further inside, with at least 100 snaps each at 7-, 6-, 5-, 4- and 3-technique.
He’ll see the field for the Saints, and there’s always a chance he starts to put it together more with a new team and new scheme. But I don’t think I would have made this swap — which works out to be the equivalent of a late fifth-round pick — for the right to find out and with just one year left on Wilson’s contract.
The 49ers were in dire straits at linebacker at the end of last season. Now, they apparently feel good enough — and healthy enough — at the position to deal Winters, who started 17 games for them, to the Cowboys for a fifth-round pick. Dallas needed to bolster their linebacker group after striking out in free agency and apparently decided Winters would be more of an immediate help after not taking a linebacker with either of their two first-round picks.
The Cowboys are surely thinking that Winters can stabilize the position next to DeMarvion Overshown. After all, Dallas is trying to get its defense to be below average as opposed to the worst in the NFL — which it was last season by EPA per play — and let the offense carry the team to the playoffs. It’s understandable that the Cowboys wanted an option at linebacker with experience, though his metrics are far from encouraging.
On the 49ers’ end, Winters is entering the last year of his deal. With Fred Warner healthy again, Dre Greenlaw back on the roster and Tatum Bethune also available, getting draft capital in exchange for Winters makes sense. Though Greenlaw is certainly an injury risk, Bethune — a 2024 seventh-round pick — played well last season. In 14 games (eight starts), he led linebackers with at least 300 snaps in run stop win rate and had the second-highest tackle rate against the run.
So, it’s fair to say that the Eagles are getting a legitimate top edge rusher and a major upgrade over Jalyx Hunt to pair with Nolan Smith Jr. The trade compensation is real — two third-round picks is significant — but they are getting Greenard at what I consider a below-market contract, signing him to a new four-year, $100 million deal.
For context, that’s almost exactly what Odafe Oweh got in free agency and is quite a bit less than former Eagle Jaelan Phillips got from Carolina. I would rather have Greenard than either Oweh or Phillips. And the top of the edge rusher market — set this week by Will Anderson Jr. at $50 million per year — is double the APY Greenard just got.
So, the Eagles filled a critical need with draft capital, but are getting a value price on the financials in exchange. That’s nice team-building work.
With Greenard gone, the Vikings will need to rely more on 2024 first-round pick Dallas Turner and Andrew Van Ginkel to get outside pressure on opposing quarterbacks. The Vikings are worse now than they were this morning.
The Titans went offense at No. 4 with Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate, and they decided not to wait until Friday to address the other side of the ball.
Auburn’s Keldric Faulk was expected to go a few picks earlier, as ESPN’s NFL Draft Day Predictor thought there was only a 20% chance he would be on the board at No. 31 heading into Thursday. Now, he joins a new-look defensive line that includes Jermaine Johnson II, John Franklin-Myers and first-team All-Pro Jeffery Simmons.
This wasn’t as cheap of a trade-up, like the Jets’ deal was one pick before. However, the overpay was much less than a typical first-round, non-QB deal.
Buffalo walked away with a late-fifth-round pick’s worth of surplus value, according to ESPN’s draft pick valuations — though that doesn’t take into account that they lost fifth-year option privileges this year. Still, value is value, and the forecast for the Bills’ No. 35 pick will be similar to what they could’ve got at No. 31.
The Jets were the third AFC East team in four picks to move up exactly three spots. They paid the cheapest price by far, giving up No. 179 to move from 33 to 30. They landed Indiana’s Omar Cooper Jr., helping fill out a receivers room that really needed help behind Garrett Wilson.
Cooper was a player the Jets were potentially linked to at No. 16, but he — like Makai Lemon before him — fell unexpectedly. He had just a 12% chance to reach No. 30, according to ESPN’s Draft Day Predictor entering the first round.
In this case, there was hardly any! In fact, this was the cheapest trade-up overpay for a non-quarterback over the past 10 drafts, according to ESPN’s draft pick valuations. Add in the fact that this trade-up crossed the first-round barrier, meaning the Jets gained a fifth-year option (which isn’t worth a ton but is worth something), and I like this deal for New York. Almost every early trade-up is a bad deal. But this was a good one.
The Dolphins gave up No. 90 to move up three spots. One selection later, the Patriots also moved up three spots — but it cost them only No. 125 to pull it off.
The move up was to select Utah tackle Caleb Lomu, who could have been a candidate for the Chiefs a pick later. The Patriots have publicly backed Will Campbell even after he struggled in the Super Bowl, but perhaps now Campbell will slide to guard and put Lomu at left tackle. Lomu could also be the long-term plan at right tackle, where 35-year-old Morgan Moses is stationed. Either way, the Patriots needed and got some long-term talent at tackle.
In a vacuum, the Bills come out ahead in ESPN’s draft pick valuations. However, it’s a cheap overpay relative to most other first-round trade-ups. And I’m more sympathetic to this trade because Lomu also represented the end of the large tier of tackles who were likely to be selected in the first round. After he was gone, there was a perceived drop-off at the position.
The Dolphins entered last season with a serious problem at cornerback. But in 2026, they’ll at least have a first-round pick at the position. Miami traded up three spots to secure San Diego State cornerback Chris Johnson at No. 27. The cost? One of the Dolphins’ four third-round picks.
What Chris Johnson brings to the DolphinsCheck out the highlights from Chris Johnson’s draft reel.
Check out the highlights from Chris Johnson’s draft reel.
According to ESPN’s draft pick valuations, the Dolphins overpaid by a fringe late third-round or early fourth-round pick — indicative of the fact that the player a team gets at No. 27 should be expected to be barely better than the player they would get at No. 30.
There was certainly a chance Johnson would have fallen three more spots to No. 30. And even if not, the Dolphins could have taken another similar-caliber player! Cornerbacks Colton Hood (Tennessee), Avieon Terrell (Clemson), Jermod McCoy (Tennessee) and Brandon Cisse (South Carolina) were all still on the board.
Some will say this move makes sense because the Dolphins still have three third-rounders, but that is shortsighted. Just because the Dolphins acquired extra draft assets doesn’t mean they should give them away for less than they’re worth!
The Texans couldn’t wait two more picks to continue their ever-churning offensive line rebuild. Georgia tech guard Keylan Rutledge will join an offensive line that has Wyatt Teller and Ed Ingram at guard but certainly could use another potential starter in the interior.