Ben SolakMay 1, 2026, 06:20 AM ETCloseBen Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.Multiple Authors
play3:34Why is Mansoor Delane such an elite pick for the Kansas City Chiefs?SEC Network’s Chris Doering describes why Mansoor Delane was a great pick for the Chiefs and how he will impact their defense this upcoming season.
play2:20Colts’ GM: We were excited CJ Allen was available for us to draftColts general manager Chris Ballard joins “The Rich Eisen Show” to discuss Indianapolis’ draft class and what he liked from it.
Kellen Moore: ‘We got the right kind of guy’ in Jordyn Tyson (2:48)Saints coach Kellen Moore joins Rich Eisen and breaks down the team’s draft class, including Jordyn Tyson. (2:48)
Why is Mansoor Delane such an elite pick for the Kansas City Chiefs?SEC Network’s Chris Doering describes why Mansoor Delane was a great pick for the Chiefs and how he will impact their defense this upcoming season.
SEC Network’s Chris Doering describes why Mansoor Delane was a great pick for the Chiefs and how he will impact their defense this upcoming season.
Colts’ GM: We were excited CJ Allen was available for us to draftColts general manager Chris Ballard joins “The Rich Eisen Show” to discuss Indianapolis’ draft class and what he liked from it.
Colts general manager Chris Ballard joins “The Rich Eisen Show” to discuss Indianapolis’ draft class and what he liked from it.
In nine months, some cheerful young player who was drafted in 2026 will be standing on the stage at the NFL Honors receiving the award for Rookie of the Year. In fact, two will — offense and defense.
Immediately after last year’s draft, I stacked my personal board for both awards, with the eventual winners falling to fourth (Tetairoa McMillan) and sixth (Carson Schwesinger) on my lists. I’m pretty happy with those outcomes for early May guesstimates, as we don’t even have training camp depth charts or preseason injury news yet. Both awards follow fairly consistent bumper rails for voters, and as such, we can define favorites and (reasonable) sleepers from long distance.
Here are my way-too-early rankings for Rookies of the Year candidates, split by offense and defense. I’ll go through the possibilities and then give my final list.
Three skill position players left the board in the first four picks on Day 1: quarterback Fernando Mendoza (Raiders), running back Jeremiyah Love (Cardinals) and wide receiver Carnell Tate (Titans). These are the clear big favorites and the only three players I’ll discuss up top here.
We’re fresh off a season in which a receiver won Rookie of the Year, as Panthers’ first-round wideout McMillan produced 1,014 yards and seven touchdowns in what was generally a down year for OROY options. Saints quarterback Tyler Shough finished behind McMillan in voting despite only nine starts, and had he played 17 games, the conversation would have been more interesting.
As a general rule, quarterbacks who start the majority of the season (and produce) win the award over spectacular seasons from non-quarterbacks. In 2023, Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud and Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua had excellent rookie seasons, but Nacua’s campaign was legitimately record-setting, as his 105 receptions and 1,486 yards were marks for rookie receivers. The yardage record had stood for 63 years before Nacua broke it!
Yet Stroud didn’t just win the award. He dominated Nacua, securing 48 of 50 first-place votes. Similarly, in 2019, Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray (with modest stats but 16 starts) beat out Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (with great production but only 13 games) for the title. Identifying early-season starters at quarterback is the quickest path to finding Offensive Rookie of the Year favorites.
Critically, a quarterback also doesn’t need to win games to garner OROY love. Murray won the award on a 5-10-1 Cardinals squad, while 2020 Justin Herbert led the Chargers to a 7-9 record. Any semi-respectable record (read: not 3-14 again) will let Mendoza qualify — and I think the Raiders’ roster is plenty capable of such a season.
Should Mendoza’s rookie year prove disqualifying for any of a number of reasons — injury, team collapse, a bunch of Cousins starts, Jeanty rushing for 2,000 yards, etc. — Tate and Love become more interesting.
Receivers have been in as of late. McMillan was the third receiver to win the award in the past five seasons (Jets’ Garrett Wilson in 2022 and Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase in 2021), but he’s only the sixth wideout to win the award this century. Receivers have recently leapfrogged running backs as the non-quarterback contenders in Rookie of the Year voting — no back has won Rookie of the Year since Saquon Barkley in 2018.
On the other hand, the fourth pick is the fourth pick. The Titans are telling us that they want Tate to produce heavily. I’m just not sure I buy the talent level relative to past winners such as Wilson and Chase.
Love seems like an obvious favorite for Rookie of the Year, and I get it from a talent perspective. He is the earliest drafted running back since Barkley, who is the most recent running back winner. Barkley led the league in yards from scrimmage as a rookie, and while Love is unlikely to be that productive, he does have the receiving chops to be a dynamic three-down player.
Jordyn Tyson, WR, Saints: WR2s don’t typically win the award, and Tyson is surely the WR2 behind Chris Olave. Of course, Olave has never played a full 17-game season. And Tyson does have the talent to go for a 1,000-yard season so long as he stays healthy, which is not a guarantee. The Saints were the fastest-paced NFL offense by a serious margin last season, so Tyson should see more opportunities for compiling stats. I’m intrigued but not ready to commit.
Why is Mansoor Delane such an elite pick for the Kansas City Chiefs?
A few players selected outside of Round 1 who I believe have the best shot to win Rookie of the Year:
Denzel Boston, WR, Browns: As much as Concepcion has a good chance to become the WR1 in Cleveland, so does Boston, who was drafted 15 picks later. He has a bigger body (6-foot-4, 209 pounds) with a larger catch radius, and that might be better suited to produce with the Browns’ quarterbacks of questionable accuracy.
If a player is not included, it means they have zero chance of winning the award. It simply will not happen. Do not screenshot this.
Defensive Rookie of the Year is conveniently organized for prognosticators. Since 2000, 22 of the 26 winners (85%) have been first-round picks. The four players who didn’t go in the first round were linebackers taken before No. 40, including last year’s winner Carson Schwesinger. (The Browns took Schwesinger at No. 33 to start Day 2, and he was my featured long shot to win the award.)
Sadly, there were no linebackers taken in the second round before No. 40 this year. We can stretch our constraints slightly to fit three, maybe four, maybe five linebackers on Day 2, and we will … when we get down to the long shots.
Colts’ GM: We were excited CJ Allen was available for us to draft
From picks 16 to 32, six more defensive players went. Again, we can toss aside the safety — sorry, Dillon Thieneman — and focus on the five remainders.
Akheem Mesidor, Edge, Chargers: Mesidor figures to be the Edge3 behind Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu. Perhaps that means he brings fresh legs onto the field on pass-rush downs and accumulates sacks while that spectacular Chargers secondary forces quarterbacks to hold the ball. However, the more likely scenario is that the rotation limits too many of his opportunities. I’m not buying it.
Malachi Lawrence, Edge, Cowboys: It’s unclear just how many snaps Lawrence will get in Dallas, as second-year player Donovan Ezeiruaku and trade acquisition Rashan Gary also sit on the depth chart. But with new defensive coordinator Christian Parker, tons of snaps are up for grabs. Lawrence has elite explosive measurables and a better path to every down opportunities than late drafted pass rushers. He’s the sleeper to circle.
Peter Woods, DT, Chiefs: I’m willing to get totally wild and draw a world in which Chris Jones draws all the double teams, Steve Spagnuolo continues to blitz at a high rate and Woods collects a ton of behind-the-line production as a cleanup man. It’s not at all likely, but for most defensive tackles drafted at No. 29, I would tell you there’s no shot. Woods is a great penetrator, and the environment is right in Kansas City.
As I said above, the only players who are not first-rounders to win Defensive Rookie of the Year this century were linebackers selected at the top of Round 2. Those were Schwesinger (No. 33 in 2025), Shaquille Leonard (No. 36 in 2018), DeMeco Ryans (No. 33 in 2006) and Kendrell Bell (No. 39 in 2001).
No linebackers left the board in the 30s this year, but five were picked in Round 2. For the sake of argument, I’ll include them here in order of where they were picked:
Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Dolphins: Rodriguez is perhaps the most Schwesinger-esque of the five Round 2 options. Undersized (6-foot-1, 230 pounds) but with magnets to the ball, Rodriguez will be a fun candidate in a different defense. But there simply won’t be enough production to go around alongside All-Pro linebacker Jordyn Brooks. Linebackers need to accumulate 100-plus tackles to win the award, and Brooks will beat Rodriguez to too many spots.
Josiah Trotter, LB, Buccaneers: Trotter runs into a similar issue to Rodriguez, as he plays next to a quality veteran in Alex Anzalone. But Anzalone is a free agent addition, and Trotter’s unique skill in college was his burst and unreal football instincts to create tackles at or near the line of scrimmage. He’s in the race for the award, especially if he shows during camp that he can play faster than the aging Anzalone.
Jake Golday, LB, Vikings: Golday is an off-ball/on-ball tweener who will be stuck behind established starters at both positions: Andrew Van Ginkel and Dallas Turner at outside linebacker; Eric Wilson and Blake Cashman at inside linebacker. He will undoubtedly have flashy plays in subpackages, but he simply will not see enough snaps — barring injury — to contend for this award.