David SchoenfieldMay 4, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseCovers MLB for ESPN.com Former deputy editor of Page 2 Been with ESPN.com since 1995Multiple Authors
The struggles of three of MLB’s richest premier franchises over the opening five weeks of the 2026 season are reminiscent of a scene from “Bull Durham,” when manager Joe “Skip” Riggins asks coach Larry Hockett, “What’s our record?” Larry says 8-16, adding “it’s a miracle” when Skip asks “how’d we ever win eight?”
It was that kind of April. Teams that were supposed to be good have been bad. Teams that were supposed to be bad have been surprisingly competitive. The American League is basically the Los Angeles freeway system: very congested.
Jeff Passan already covered the big stories and themes of the month, so let’s hand out some grades to all 30 teams.
We’re factoring in preseason expectations, win-loss record and the underlying statistics for each. The top grade was an easy pick. The bottom ones — and we have a lot of “F” marks to hand out — prove that baseball isn’t always a simple game.
We can all say, “Oh, we saw this coming, there is a lot of talent here.” But most of us would be lying.
The Reds receive a high grade based on their 20-13 record. That’s in the bank. They could play .500 ball the rest of the way and that might get them into the playoffs. Even better would be their first division title since 2012. But are they good? There are a lot of fluky things going on here, including going 7-0 in one-run games and 4-0 in two-run games. That’s fun but not sustainable.
The Brewers rank fourth in run differential at plus-46, behind the Braves, Dodgers and Yankees. That’s a good sign, a strong predictor of a team’s future win-loss record, with the caveat of early-season sample size. How they get there, though, doesn’t quite add up.
A 34-year-old journeyman, Ildemaro Vargas has been one of the season’s early uplifting stories, with a 27-game hitting streak (going back to the end of 2025) that was snapped Saturday, the longest in the majors since 2022 and the longest for a player born in Venezuela. Not uplifting: Arizona’s pitching, which is 29th in rotation ERA and 23rd in bullpen ERA. The team’s projection hasn’t changed much from the preseason: Is there enough here beyond Corbin Carroll, Geraldo Perdomo and Ketel Marte?
The Tigers have some clear positives, starting with Tarik Skubal, who is still great, and Kevin McGonigle, who is on his way to greatness. Otherwise? Sort of a “meh” opening month. Let’s consider a few things happening. They wanted to cut down on their strikeouts and they’ve done that, improving from 27th in the league to 10th, although it hasn’t yet translated to more runs. Still, it’s probably a good sign.
The Mariners were not only our consensus favorites to win the AL West — receiving 25 of 30 votes to win the division in ESPN’s preseason predictions — but the consensus World Series pick out of the AL, receiving half the votes. With that in mind, it has been a bit of a rocky start.
The Blue Jays are off to a slow start because of a fairly extensive list of injuries plus some self-inflicted wounds. It’s one thing to lose pitchers to injury, but the Jays have also been without catcher Alejandro Kirk and outfielder Addison Barger most of the season, and fellow outfielder George Springer sat out 16 games. So give them credit for not letting the season fall apart early — like some other World Series contenders (see below!).
Still, don’t give up on this offense, especially with rookie Carter Jensen looking like a possible middle-of-the-order bat and Witt just itching to go on a major hot streak. The bigger problem: a bullpen that saw closer Carlos Estevez land on the IL with diminished velocity after giving up six runs in his first outing and ranking near the bottom in most categories. Maybe back-to-back one-run wins over the Mariners this weekend will get the team — and the pen — back in the right direction.
The average age of their position players, adjusted for playing time, is 28.1 years old, right at the MLB average. Jarren Duran has basically four years of experience. Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela are in their third seasons as regulars. Yes, Roman Anthony and Marcelo Mayer are in their first full seasons, and maybe the Red Sox do miss Alex Bregman’s presence, but youth is not an excuse.
The metrics don’t back this up. They’re first in defensive runs saved and better than league average in batting average allowed on balls in play.
No doubt, there have been some boneheaded efforts, but they’re second in FanGraphs’ team baserunning metric.
The worrisome thing here is Bryce Harper is doing what he did last season, Kyle Schwarber ended April with a higher OPS than last season and Cristopher Sanchez has been fine, with a 2.90 ERA. Nonetheless, the Phillies finished April with a minus-45 run differential, worst in the majors, and that overall dismal effort cost manager Rob Thomson his job.
Things are so bad that after the Phillies’ game was rained out last Wednesday, a bunch of the players went to a Flyers playoff game. When they were shown on the Jumbrotron, the fans booed.
We have to acknowledge it’s early in the season. These guys are all capable of playing better. The Mets have had injuries to Juan Soto and now Francisco Lindor. The offense has been atrocious, with the worst OPS in baseball. That’s maybe the most egregious indictment of all: This team plays in New York and has been unwatchable.
The big surprise — and the key to the Braves keeping this going — has been the rotation. Bryce Elder, pressed into a rotation spot because of the aforementioned injuries, is 3-1 with a 1.88 ERA. A new cutter he developed a couple of years ago with Braves pitching legend Greg Maddux — a pitch Elder finally felt comfortable using this season — has helped him hold lefties to a .144 average. Chris Sale has six wins already and the bullpen has also been solid, with the fourth-best ERA in the majors. Right now, the Braves look like a well-rounded team — with help on the way if Strider and Schwellenbach can return.
The Yankees look as if they might run away with the American League with a plus-57 run differential — with the Tigers second at plus-12. Ben Rice has been the best hitter in baseball. Cam Schlittler has become a must-watch with his wicked arsenal of high-velo fastballs: four-seamer, two-seamer and cutter, all of which he tunnels well. He finished April second in the majors in ERA and first in WHIP, strikeout-to-walk ratio and OPS allowed. Teammate Max Fried ranked second in OPS allowed. And Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon are rehabbing in the minors. With their combo of power and starting pitchers, the Yankees look on their way to their first 100-win season since 2019.
The Rays are 20-12 despite a so-so plus-6 run differential, going 10-2 against the AL Central. A 6-1 record in one-run games has keyed the early start, but they also had a nice three-game sweep of the Yankees when Chandler Simpson constantly befuddled New York with his speed. The Rays have some clear strengths — Junior Caminero, Yandy Diaz — and some clear weaknesses they might have to upgrade (center field and bullpen). With Ryan Pepiot now out for the season, a huge key is Shane McClanahan, who seems to be rounding into his previous All-Star form after sitting out two seasons. With the three AL East teams below them so far failing to match advance notice, this might turn into one of those scrappy, overachieving seasons for the Rays.
St. Louis has been better than expected, with some compelling things: Jordan Walker might finally be having that breakout season after being a nonfactor the past two seasons; rookie JJ Wetherholt is living up to his prospect hype and looks like a future star; and Ivan Herrera is turning into an on-base savant between all the walks and hit by pitches. Are the Cardinals legit contenders? They’re coming off a hot week, but their pitchers are last in strikeout rate and it’s almost impossible to make the playoffs doing that. Last year, the bottom nine teams in pitcher strikeout rate all missed the playoffs.
Elly De La Cruz notwithstanding, this isn’t a good offensive team, ranking 25th in the majors in wRC+. As Saturday’s game showed, when the Reds walked seven batters in a row (the first time that has happened in the majors since 1983), the pitching has some issues as well, as they’re tied with the Astros for the worst strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Reds hadn’t played within the division — and the NL Central has been the best division in baseball so far this season — until this series against Pittsburgh, which promptly blew out Cincinnati the first two games.
This grade was looking like an “A” grade until the Cardinals swept a four-game series this past week in Pittsburgh — although the Pirates rebounded with those impressive 9-1 and 17-7 wipeouts of Cincinnati. They’re averaging 5.26 runs per game through that Saturday win, which would be the most by a Pirates team since … whoa … 1930, which was the all-time juiced-ball season. Considering the Pirates were last in the majors in 2025 at 3.60 runs per game, this would go down as one of best year-to-year turnarounds in MLB history. That’s a big if, but it has made the Pirates watchable, even when Paul Skenes isn’t pitching.
Let’s get into some nerdy early-season stats: Nick Kurtz has walked 22.8% of the time so far in 2026. That would be the highest walk rate since Barry Bonds, who had the highest walk rates of all time, last played in 2007. (Mike Trout’s 21.6% rate this season would be third highest.) Meanwhile, Jacob Wilson’s 2.2% walk rate would be the sixth lowest since the 2008 season (with Baltimore’s Jeremiah Jackson even lower). Yes, the A’s are a team of extremes in many ways, from great starts (Shea Langeliers, Carlos Cortes) to lousy ones (Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker). But the question through five weeks is the same as in March: Is there enough pitching to keep the A’s in the playoff race?
For most teams, a 14-20 record in early May isn’t a reason to be boastful. For the Rockies, it’s a million miles from what happened last year. It has been a much more competent brand of baseball. Last year, they went 7-44 in blowout games — those decided by five or more runs — but so far this year they’ve gone 4-7. The pitching ranks 19th in ERA, after ranking last in each of the past four seasons. Unfortunately, there is probably regression to come there for a rotation that doesn’t strike out enough batters. The exception has been Chase Dollander, the ninth pick in the 2023 draft, who struggled with a 6.52 ERA as a rookie in 2025. He has 42 strikeouts in 37 innings and has had success working in a bulk role out of the bullpen.