Rachel KryshakMay 4, 2026, 07:45 AM ETCloseRachel Kryshak is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.Multiple Authors
23. Adam Valentini, F, University of Michigan (NCAA)
27. Xavier Villeneuve, D, Blainville-Boisbriand (QMJHL)
29. Elton Hermansson, RW/LW, MoDo (HockeyAllsvenskan)
31. Marcus Nordmark, LW, Djurgardens IF (U20 Nationell)
It’s that time of year again! NHL teams who did not make the Stanley Cup playoffs will be laser-focused on lottery balls drawn at the NHL Network studios in Secaucus, New Jersey, on Tuesday. With so many possibilities and intrigue around the draft class, there are bound to be surprises.
There is no consensus on any player except Gavin McKenna, and even he has scouts questioning whether he should be the first player off the board. If your team needs a high-end defenseman, this is the year. There are a handful of prospects projected to become foundational pieces on the top pair.
My projections model is most heavily favored in this iteration of the rankings, with a few adjustments made. For a refresher, the model weighs scoring statistics from the current season and last season, league strength, tracking statistics (defensive, physical and transition play), age, size and injuries. The injury factor is only weighed as a function of games played given the impact on sample size for projection volatility. The model has five outputs:
Once more scouting and anecdotal information is accounted for in the coming weeks, this list will change. Here is how the top 32 rankings are shaping up right now:
NHL ceiling: Star NHL floor: Second line NHL probability: 88% Most likely tier: Top line Statistical comparable: Clayton Keller
NHL ceiling: Top line NHL floor: Second line NHL probability: 91% Most likely tier: Top line Statistical comparable: William Nylander
NHL ceiling: Top pair NHL floor: Top four NHL probability: 80% Most likely tier: Top pair Statistical comparable: Zach Werenski
NHL ceiling: Top pair NHL floor: Middle pair NHL probability: 65% Most likely tier: Top pair Statistical comparable: Evan Bouchard
NHL ceiling: Top pair NHL floor: No. 5 defenseman NHL probability: 71% Most likely tier: Top four Statistical comparable: Noah Hanifin
NHL ceiling: Star NHL floor: Middle six NHL probability: 84% Most likely tier: Top line Statistical comparable: Kyle Connor
NHL ceiling: Top pair NHL floor: No. 5 defenseman NHL probability: 70% Most likely tier: Top four Statistical comparable: Aaron Ekblad
NHL ceiling: Top line NHL floor: Middle six NHL probability: 82% Most likely tier: Second line Statistical comparable: Valeri Nichushkin
NHL ceiling: Top line NHL floor: Third line NHL probability: 74% Most likely tier: Second line Statistical comparable: Matty Beniers
NHL ceiling: Top line NHL floor: Bottom six NHL probability: 77% Most likely tier: Second line Statistical comparable: Timo Meier
NHL ceiling: Top line NHL floor: Non-NHL NHL probability: 73% Most likely tier: Middle six Statistical comparable: Oliver Bjorkstrand
NHL ceiling: Middle six NHL floor: Fourth line NHL probability: 89% Most likely tier: Third line Statistical comparable: Eetu Luostarinen
NHL ceiling: Second line NHL floor: Bottom six NHL probability: 63% Most likely tier: Middle six Statistical comparable: Connor McMichael
NHL ceiling: Top six NHL floor: Bottom six NHL probability: 57% Most likely tier: Middle six Statistical comparable: Travis Konecny
NHL ceiling: Top line NHL floor: Bottom six NHL probability: 59% Most likely tier: Middle-six center Statistical comparable: Nick Schmaltz
NHL ceiling: Top line NHL floor: Middle six NHL probability: 61% Most likely tier: Second line Statistical comparable: Jared McCann
NHL ceiling: Top line NHL floor: Fourth line NHL probability: 85% Most likely tier: Middle six Statistical comparable: Sean Couturier
NHL ceiling: Top four NHL floor: Depth defenseman NHL probability: 52% Most likely tier: Middle pair Statistical comparable: Ryan Pulock
NHL ceiling: Top six NHL floor: Third line NHL probability: 44% Most likely tier: Middle six Statistical comparable: Will Cuylle
NHL ceiling: Top six NHL floor: Non-NHL NHL probability: 41% Most likely tier: Second line Statistical comparable: Nikolaj Ehlers
NHL ceiling: Top pair NHL floor: Non-NHL NHL probability: 40% Most likely tier: Bottom pair Statistical comparable: Bowen Byram
NHL ceiling: Second line NHL floor: Fourth line NHL probability: 85% Most likely tier: Bottom six Statistical comparable: Jordan Kyrou
NHL ceiling: Top six NHL floor: Non-NHL NHL probability: 66% Most likely tier: Middle six Statistical comparable: Bryan Rust
NHL ceiling: Top pair NHL floor: Non-NHL NHL probability: 42% Most likely tier: Middle pair Statistical comparable: Samuel Girard
NHL ceiling: Second line NHL floor: Bottom six NHL probability: 86% Most likely tier: Third line Statistical comparable: Pavel Zacha
NHL ceiling: Top six NHL floor: Bottom six NHL probability: 36% Most likely tier: Third line Statistical comparable: Mark Stone
NHL ceiling: Top pair NHL floor: Non-NHL NHL probability: 40% Most likely tier: Middle pair Statistical comparable: Mario Ferraro
NHL ceiling: Top six NHL floor: Bottom six NHL probability: 30% Most likely tier: Second line Statistical comparable: Brock Boeser
NHL ceiling: Second line NHL floor: Non-NHL NHL probability: 29% Most likely tier: Third line Statistical comparable: Eduard Sale
NHL ceiling: Top six NHL floor: Bottom six NHL probability: 25% Most likely tier: Second line Statistical comparable: Brendan Brisson
NHL ceiling: Top line NHL floor: Non-NHL NHL probability: 63% Most likely tier: Middle six Statistical comparable: Jake Neighbours
NHL ceiling: Second line NHL floor: Bottom six NHL probability: 43% Most likely tier: Third line Statistical comparable: Danny Nelson
There are certainly some surprises on this draft ranking, and notably this is not how teams build their internal rankings. Players who appear that are lower down in the consensus lists — or players who are not on this ranking who are consensus first-round picks — should not be surprising. Given the model, this is likely related to production and statistical comparables. If a player has strong statistical comparables and produced well according to NHL equivalency, their projection and probability will be stronger. Players with strong 2024-2025 seasons (Ryan Roobroeck) are higher than consensus, because the model does not ignore that production and it raises their overall prospect value score.
Rachel KryshakMay 4, 2026, 07:45 AM ETCloseRachel Kryshak is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.Multiple Authors
CloseRachel Kryshak is a professional data consultant specializing in data communication and modelling. She’s worked in the NHL and consulted for professional teams across North American and Europe. She hosts the Staff & Graph Podcast and discusses sports from a data-driven perspective.
Statistical comparable: A comparable player in their draft year, based on NHL production equivalency, position, and size
NHL ceiling: A player’s peak if everything goes right
NHL probability: Probability the player plays 200 NHL games
Most likely tier: What the player is most likely to be in the NHL based on statistical comparables