play1:00Can the Thunder win back-to-back championships?Zach Kram breaks down the Thunder’s playoff outlook during the playoffs.
Tim BontempsCloseTim BontempsESPN Senior WriterTim Bontemps is a senior NBA writer for ESPN.com who covers the league and what’s impacting it on and off the court, including trade deadline intel, expansion and his MVP Straw Polls. You can find Tim alongside Brian Windhorst and Tim MacMahon on The Hoop Collective podcast.Follow on X and Brian WindhorstCloseBrian WindhorstESPN Senior WriterESPN.com NBA writer since 2010 Covered Cleveland Cavs for seven years Author of two booksFollow on XMultiple AuthorsMay 5, 2026, 08:30 AM ET
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Can the Thunder win back-to-back championships?Zach Kram breaks down the Thunder’s playoff outlook during the playoffs.
A turbulent and upset-filled first round has opened the door to rewriting the narrative surrounding many key figures. That’s especially true in the topsy-turvy Eastern Conference playoffs, where the four remaining teams all have a distinctive pathway with some new faces assured to reach the Finals.
“One of them will be a hero,” a Western Conference assistant coach said. “The other three [teams] will be in trouble because they’ll get asked, ‘How did you not make it against these guys?'”
Coach J.B. Bickerstaff, who received a contract extension less than 24 hours after advancing in the playoffs for only the second time in his career, now gets a chance to reach the East finals for the first time by knocking out his former team, the Cleveland Cavaliers. Bickerstaff was fired in 2024 after he led the Cavs to playoff berths in his final two seasons.
A Pistons victory in this round might force the Cavs into a minor existential crisis. Bickerstaff was dismissed after his Cavs were unable to move past the second round. There is also the possibility, should a Knicks-Pistons conference finals develop, of settling a score there after an intense six-game series won by New York last year. But one nemesis at a time.
“The best way to get back at someone who fires you is to beat them in the playoffs,” a veteran head coach said. “You don’t even have to say anything, it speaks volumes on its own.”
ESPN analyst and former Cavaliers center Kendrick Perkins has firmly held the position that the franchise has done more to surround Donovan Mitchell with talent than it did for LeBron James in 2003-10 and 2014-18.
Like so many stars in the East semifinals, this could be the best chance Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns have to break through for the franchise’s first NBA Finals appearance since 1999.
“They are the best team in the East and I’ve felt that way for months,” a rival East head coach said. “When they fell down [2-1] in the Hawks series, you could see that it actually brought them together. You can see they’re together and they’re hungry, which wasn’t the case for much of the year. Sometimes when we played them, I thought they didn’t all like each other. Now they seem like they do.”
A 3-1 series comeback against the Celtics presents a remarkable opportunity for Joel Embiid, Paul George and president of basketball operations Daryl Morey — all of whom have had their fair share of playoff heartbreaks — to finally have their own Finals breakthrough after careers of searching.
But Embiid and George, brilliant in the upset of the Celtics, are verifying Morey’s vision and helping push aside the cloud that has enveloped the past two seasons in Philadelphia.
“The East is going to be interesting,” a West scout said. “Everyone’s got a chance, and everyone’s got huge stakes if they don’t take advantage.”
Denver, favored against the short-handed Minnesota Timberwolves, was thoroughly outplayed. Boston and Orlando, meanwhile, became the 13th and 14th teams in NBA history to blow a 3-1 series lead.
“I’ll be interested to see what happens with Peyton,” said a second West scout, who was one of three sources to indicate a sign-and-trade for the 23-year-old forward could make sense for Denver. “I don’t know how much of an impact he would have had in the playoffs ultimately, but not having him definitely hurt.”
Denver’s aversion to entering the luxury tax could play a role in Watson’s future. The Nuggets can match any offer sheet for Watson, but despite having only eight players under contract for the 2026-27 season, they are already over next season’s projected tax line, per ESPN’s Bobby Marks. That’s a problem for a team that already looked as if it lacked depth around Nikola Jokic in these playoffs.
The front office has also drained its first-round picks in a variety of recent trades, including dealing Michael Porter Jr. for Cameron Johnson last summer, a deal that also fetched the Brooklyn Nets an unprotected 2032 first-round pick.
“The Cam Johnson thing is a sunk cost,” a West executive said. “Are you going to incentivize someone to get off [of his contract], too?”
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The Celtics entered the playoffs living what seemed like a charmed life: winning 56 games, shedding $350 million in payroll plus luxury taxes and getting All-Star-caliber performances from Jayson Tatum just 10 months after he ruptured his right Achilles.
Then Boston’s season ended with a 3-1 series collapse against the 76ers, with Tatum sidelined for Game 7 because of an injury to his left knee.
Those things began with their lack of heft inside. Starting center Neemias Queta was a Most Improved Player contender this season, but he understandably struggled against a former MVP in Embiid.
“Can Queta get you through 82? Yes, but can he patchwork it through the playoffs?” the first West scout said. “I think he keeps getting better, but there’s a ceiling. They have to get a higher-level center if they want to be considered serious contenders.”
The roster hole is something Boston will look to improve this summer, sources said. For team president Brad Stevens and Boston’s front office, the challenge is how. After moving on from guard Jrue Holiday and big men Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet last summer, the Celtics don’t have many large contracts available to move in trades.
“They have to get a higher-level center if they want to be considered serious contenders,” the scout said. “They were always going to have problems replacing Jrue and KP and these guys to get below the tax — because they don’t have the ability to replace those salary slots. Can they get someone with the [midlevel exception]? Hard to see that.”
When the Magic took a 3-1 lead against the Pistons, overwhelming the top-seeded Pistons at their own game of imposing physicality, it looked as if Orlando might finally realize its preseason vision for their young, rising roster.
Then forward Franz Wagner left Game 5 because of a calf injury and never returned to the series, the Magic managed only 19 points in the second half of Game 6 and fired coach Jamahl Mosley one day after their Game 7 loss.
“They’re kind of a mess,” the East scout said. “Their ceiling just isn’t very high with Paolo [Banchero]. Their roster construction is just off.
“Paolo has to have the ball to make an impact. He reminds me of Julius Randle: great size, great talent, but he’s more of a floor- than ceiling-raiser. Having him lead your team is tough to pull off.”
The expectation is that Orlando won’t radically alter the roster before seeing how it performs under the guidance of a new coach, but the fit between Banchero and Wagner — two big, combo forwards who are most effective with the ball in their hands — remains complicated.
The conference semifinals feature quite a few notable free agents-to-be and players in line for lucrative contract extensions this summer. Strong play in the playoffs has long been some of the best leverage to secure better deals. Unfortunately, so is a playoff letdown.
With Luka Doncic remaining out with what certainly looks like a more severe hamstring injury than the Lakers had hoped, Reaves has a prime opportunity to boost his value in the series against the Thunder. He has made $14 million this season and will certainly bypass his $14.5 million player option for next year.
“[Reaves’] cap hold is $21 million and he’ll want the Lakers to pay him significantly more than that,” a West general manager said. “What isn’t clear is who the Lakers will be bidding against, because the [cap] space teams like the Bulls, Nets and Jazz may not be in the market.
“The best path for him is probably to come off this [oblique] injury, have a great showing against the Thunder and apply pressure to the Lakers to keep him at all costs.”
As a second apron team, the Cavs have incentive to work out a new multiyear deal that lowers that annual salary but guarantees Harden more money.
“[That is the] best path to get under the apron without materially salary dumping,” an Eastern Conference executive said. “The Cavs will pay him more than he could get in free agency. They’ll probably work something out.”
Cavs coach Kenny Atkinson prioritized a good working relationship with Harden from the moment the trade was finalized and that partnership, for now, is strong, sources report. If the Cavs get to the conference finals, a clear franchise goal for this season, they might both end up with tidy new deals.
Towns has two seasons and $120 million left on his deal, but he can opt out and become a free agent in the summer of 2027. That makes him an obvious contract extension candidate this summer.
The Knicks could give him a max deal for up to four years and $260 million. Coming off an All-Star season, a deep playoff run in which Towns continues to put up big numbers could apply some pressure on the Knicks. But New York already has nearly $170 million in combined salary headed to Brunson, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart for the 2027-28 season. Signing Towns on a max contract this summer would almost certainly push the Knicks into second apron territory.