Updated projections for all 30 MLB teams — and on…

Bradford DoolittleMay 6, 2026, 07:00 AM ETCloseMLB writer and analyst for ESPN.com Former NBA writer and analyst for ESPN.com Been with ESPN since 2013Multiple Authors

Jeff Passan: The Mets seem like a team without an identity (1:55)Jeff Passan joins Rich Eisen and reflects on the Mets’ difficult start to the season. (1:55)

Six weeks into the 2026 MLB season, the narratives that will dominate the summer are already taking shape. But we’re not there yet.

There’s still plenty of time for teams to either self-correct from a faltering start, or to validate quick beginnings.

Whatever their expectations entering the season, and regardless of their early results, there’s at least something each team can fix. As we take stock of the current landscape and how it has changed since we checked in last month, we’re going to zero in on these issues by identifying one thing that must change for all 30 teams.

The Yankees have been cooking of late on offense and defense. It’s already hard to remember that 3-8 stretch not so long ago that made them seem vulnerable. Things have turned around so completely since that slump that we kind of have to dig for an area of concern — but not too deep, because Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s replacement-level start and an uneven third-base platoon suggest there is plenty of room for improvement. Chisholm’s situation is probably just a matter of waiting out a slow start, but he bears watching. At third base, Amed Rosario, the short side of the platoon, has hit well but has poor defensive metrics. Ryan McMahon, the starter against most righties, is below replacement and has a 78 OPS+ since joining the Yankees last season. New York has levers to pull, including recently optioned shortstop Anthony Volpe, provided he gets up to speed at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre as he completes his return from injury. Also worth watching: 20-year-old prospect George Lombard Jr., who was recently promoted to Triple-A. The Yankees have time on their side when it comes to seeing how the infield shakes out because Jose Caballero has been playing like an All-Star at short, and at first base, Ben Rice has been playing at an MVP level.

This season has been a return to form for the Rays. They’ve been winning in very Rays fashion, with production all over the roster, much of it from players who might be more than a little off the radar of the median mainstream MLB fan. One sore spot has been in center field, where Tampa Bay ranks last in bWAR with a collective showing well below replacement level. This has been almost entirely a Mullins problem. The longtime Oriole has fallen off the table since Baltimore traded him to the Mets last season. Things have gotten worse with the Rays, as Mullins’ OPS+ (16) is unplayable. With an xWOBA in the 1st percentile, there’s little in that number that seems like a fluke. The Rays are off to a great start, but as they get deeper into a playoff chase, they have to get more in center, whether it’s from Mullins or somebody else.

The Padres have run hot and cold so far, and their solid overall record has a bit of smoke and mirrors in it given a 9-3 showing in one- and two-run games. Some of that is the sublime Mason Miller, but that’s kind of the point here. San Diego has gotten superlative work from him at the back of the bullpen, along with Randy Vasquez and Michael King atop the rotation. The Padres can’t really ask more than what they’ve gotten from that trio, which has still resulted in middle-of-the-pack run prevention. We suspected this San Diego staff was top-heavy, but it can’t continue to be this top-heavy.

The Pirates have played well. We expected their offense to be better because of Pittsburgh’s offseason work, and it has been. But this has been true despite, not because of, Ozuna. With their DH posting a 52 OPS+, the Pirates have the worst collective bWAR at the DH slot in baseball, well below league average. It’s one thing for that to happen when you are rotating players in that role, but the Pirates are a team with an anointed everyday DH in Ozuna. Everything is bad: His strikeout rate is at a career-worst level and his hard-hit rate is below the MLB average. Ozuna is 35 and his numbers were down last year in Atlanta. It’s possible the Pirates simply acquired him at the wrong time. If that becomes apparent, Pittsburgh needs to be ready to pivot, and fast, because a contending team can’t have an every-day DH who doesn’t hit.

The Rangers’ start has been a mixed bag. Though the AL West remains oh so winnable for everyone in the division except the Angels, Texas has hung in the mix mostly because of a revelatory performance from the bullpen that might not be sustainable. However, Texas can probably expect a better collective rotation performance from here, so the pitching should be fine. The retooled offense, which was juggled to become a little more diverse, has not yet come together. Across the board, the Rangers’ numbers look very much like 2025 and, if anything, Texas has been a little more reliant on the long ball to score than a year ago. The obvious sore spots are two below-replacement regulars: Josh Smith (second base) and Joc Pederson (DH). Pederson is basically replicating his numbers from 2025 and that’s a big problem. But upgrading at that spot could also be a big opportunity for the Rangers. Smith just went on the IL, opening the door for promoted bat-first infielder Justin Foscue.

The question mark there is necessary because I’m not quite ready to sign off on the Redbirds’ offense. But I am intrigued. To be clear, St. Louis’ pitching needs to get much better, especially the bullpen, if the Cardinals are going to maintain their lofty early standing. But MLB’s second-youngest offense ranks sixth in OPS+ in the early going — and it’s been really fun to watch. Jordan Walker has turned into the hitter we thought he might become a couple of years ago, and JJ Wetherholt has been as good as advertised. Maybe going young was what the Cardinals needed all along.

For a while there, the Royals’ season was teetering on the brink of early oblivion. But things have trended sharply upward over the past couple of weeks, and the uptick has extended into most areas of the roster. One exception has been second base. Early on, Jonathan India did the heavy lifting, got hurt, and now is out for the year. Lately, it has been a Michael Massey/Nick Loftin platoon. Loftin, playing against lefties, has been the better of the two. Massey, though, now has a 64 OPS+ and minus-0.2 bWAR since his solid 2024 showing, and this season he has struck out six times more than he has walked. The Royals should remain a part of the AL Central race but any marginal upgrade they can make will be important. If Massey doesn’t get going, this would be one area for Kansas City to target.

I’m trying hard to be specific for most teams, but for the Orioles, the overall pitching outlook has reached crisis proportions. According to my system of tracking team temperatures, and maintaining separate values for hitting and pitching, Baltimore pitchers are the coldest unit in the majors on either side of the ball. With the injury list getting longer, things might be getting worse. Slapping some arbitrary end points on it, Baltimore’s run prevention plummet began with a 9-7 win April 13. Including that game, the Orioles have since put up a 5.87 staff ERA, ranking 29th. Both the rotation and the bullpen rank 29th during that span.

The Astros’ MLB-worst team ERA tells the story. The rotation has been awful and the bullpen even worse. There have been lots of injuries — even in relation to the current MLB landscape, where no pitcher can tread lightly. But Houston had built a reputation of being able to come up with pitching solutions, even where they did not seem apparent. That simply has not happened this season. Getting Hunter Brown and Josh Hader back will eventually help, but the Astros need to win some games until then for that to matter.

The Twins got off to a solid start, but that momentum has waned over the past couple of weeks. As I write this, we don’t know the extent of Joe Ryan’s elbow problem, and if the news is bad, that throws a lot of things around the Twins into limbo. And you can’t really point to anyone in the Minnesota bullpen — 29th in the majors in ERA — who is throwing particularly well. Kody Funderburk has a sparkling 2.03 ERA, but it’s a mirage, as he has walked more batters than he has struck out. The Twins are young and probably rebuilding, especially if Ryan will be out. But a miserable bullpen can make for a very long summer.

The Marlins have hovered around the border of respectability, but if not for some slow starts by a trio of their foundational hitters, things could be exciting right now. Injuries stymied Kyle Stowers to start the season but he has been back for a couple of weeks and it’s time to rediscover his power bat. Also, at 28, he’s not really that young. Agustin Ramirez was optioned, and he needs to find himself in Triple-A and prepare to see even more 1B/DH time if glove-first prospect Joe Mack plays well in his first MLB stint. Finally, Owen Caissie might need some fine-tuning. After a couple of nice early moments, his season has become a strikeout fest — 45 whiffs against only six walks. Long shot contention aside, the Marlins need to get all these young-ish hitters pointed in the right direction.

Sorry, Angels fans — especially you die-hards who want more than anything to see Trout retire as a one-team player. I have nothing but sympathy for that sentiment. But as the Angels sink into oblivion once again, we are seeing the best version of Trout we’ve had in years. He’s healthy (knock on wood), dominating the zone and mashing when he gets a ball to drive. He’s running well, and though he still probably shouldn’t be playing center field, it’s fine if doing so is unlocking these other things. A change in scenery is strictly a matter between Trout and the Angels, and if he wants to stay, then so be it. But I’d really love to see this rejuvenated version of Trout in a postseason race and in the playoffs.

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