Champions League final: PSG vs. Arsenal prediction…

Bill ConnellyMay 7, 2026, 10:30 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on XMultiple Authors

play2:14Marcotti: Simeone subbing off strongest players made no senseGab Marcotti and Julien Laurens criticise Atlético Madrid boss Diego Simoene for subbing off “their strongest players” in their Champions League semifinal loss to Arsenal.

play1:48Laurens: Luis Enrique has built a monster team in PSGJulien Laurens praises Paris Saint-Germain for “doing everything perfectly” in their Champions League semifinal win over Bayern Munich.

play1:03Burley: PSG are still the best team in EuropeCraig Burley reacts to PSG’s progression to the Champions League final after eliminating Bayern Munich.

play1:54Marcotti: ‘Huge call’ from Arteta to start Myles Lewis-Skelly in midfieldGab Marcotti gives his thoughts on Arteta’s decision to drop Martin Zubimendi for Myles Lewis-Skelly against Atletico Madrid.

Nicol: Arsenal will be asking for trouble if they sit back vs. PSG (0:56)Steve Nicol debates how Arsenal should look to approach the Champions League final vs. PSG. (0:56)

Marcotti: Simeone subbing off strongest players made no senseGab Marcotti and Julien Laurens criticise Atlético Madrid boss Diego Simoene for subbing off “their strongest players” in their Champions League semifinal loss to Arsenal.

Gab Marcotti and Julien Laurens criticise Atlético Madrid boss Diego Simoene for subbing off “their strongest players” in their Champions League semifinal loss to Arsenal.

Laurens: Luis Enrique has built a monster team in PSGJulien Laurens praises Paris Saint-Germain for “doing everything perfectly” in their Champions League semifinal win over Bayern Munich.

Julien Laurens praises Paris Saint-Germain for “doing everything perfectly” in their Champions League semifinal win over Bayern Munich.

Burley: PSG are still the best team in EuropeCraig Burley reacts to PSG’s progression to the Champions League final after eliminating Bayern Munich.

Craig Burley reacts to PSG’s progression to the Champions League final after eliminating Bayern Munich.

Marcotti: ‘Huge call’ from Arteta to start Myles Lewis-Skelly in midfieldGab Marcotti gives his thoughts on Arteta’s decision to drop Martin Zubimendi for Myles Lewis-Skelly against Atletico Madrid.

Gab Marcotti gives his thoughts on Arteta’s decision to drop Martin Zubimendi for Myles Lewis-Skelly against Atletico Madrid.

How PSG advanced: They converted their chances (and Bayern finally blinked)

Why Arsenal will win: Clear roles (and good health?)

Why PSG will win: Undying confidence (and, perhaps, fresher legs)

The defending champs against this year’s most consistently strong challenger. If you can come up with a more fitting matchup for almost literally any final in any competition, I’d love to hear it, and it’s exactly what this year’s Champions League final will offer: On May 30 in Budapest, Hungary, the 2025 winners Paris Saint-Germain will face Arsenal, a team that is unbeaten in 14 Champions League matches this season.

On Tuesday, Arsenal survived a physical battle against an Atletico Madrid team that has tripped up countless Champions League hopefuls through the years. On Wednesday, PSG made one burst of attacking brilliance hold up and survived 90 minutes in Munich with their advantage intact. Let’s look at how both teams advanced and what awaits us in a titanic final.

Arsenal 1, Atletico Madrid 0. Viktor Gyökeres has been a pretty polarizing figure this season. He looks the part more than almost any other center forward — with his big, physical presence, he can stress and pull defenders, taffy-like, in ways that alter opponents’ game plans. He’s a willing runner and presser, too, which isn’t a given for expensive forwards. He basically does everything you would hope for from a center forward … except actually attempt shots.

Not including four penalties, he’s only attempted 85 shots across 3,311 minutes of competition this year, an average of 2.3 per 90 minutes. He’s averaged 2.2 per 90 in the Premier League — the same as Chelsea’s Enzo Fernández, a defensive midfielder — and in six matches against the rest of the Premier League’s top four (Manchester City, Manchester United and Liverpool) he attempted one shot, worth just 0.03 xG, in 342 minutes.

So yeah, Gyokeres is not a perfect player. He’s 27 years old, too; you can’t really project him to develop much further, but matchups matter, and he was absolutely perfect for what Arsenal wanted to do against Atletico Madrid on Tuesday.

– UCL Talking Points: Can Arsenal beat PSG? – Ogden: PSG are on brink of greatness – Reaction: Arsenal set sights on European glory

In 159 minutes across the two-legged semifinals, Gyokeres attempted just three non-penalty shots and put none of them on target. But you could say he was Arsenal’s third-most important player after do-it-all midfielder Declan Rice and Saka, the goal scorer. The Emirates Stadium crowd was loud and dialed-in all evening, and Gyokeres made sure it stayed that way. This was his shining moment as a Gunner, and it came at a pretty good time.

Arsenal still needed someone else to put the ball in the net, of course, and they got their goal late in the first half when Leandro Trossard whipped a wicked shot at Jan Oblak, who did well to get a hand on it. Saka pounced on the rebound and put Arsenal ahead.

Along with Gyokeres’ miss in the 66th minute and a miss from Atleti’s Giuliano Simeone in the 51st, Saka’s goal was one of only three shots worth more than 0.1 xG all night. This was the war of attrition it was expected to be.

Now they’re in the first Champions League final in 20 years, and it’s a deserved reward for the steadiest team in Europe.

Marcotti: Simeone subbing off strongest players made no sense

PSG 1, Bayern Munich 1. Over the two legs of the two semifinal matchups, here’s how each team converted its chances:

– Atletico Madrid: attempted 27 shots worth 3.2 xG, but scored only once (a 31.3% xG-to-goals conversion rate) – Arsenal: 24 shots worth 3.1 xG, scored twice (64.5%) – Bayern Munich: 28 shots worth 4.5 xG, scored five goals (111.1%) – Paris Saint-Germain: 27 shots worth 2.9 xG, scored six goals (206.9%!)

PSG are heading to Budapest, with a chance to win their second straight Champions League title, because they finished their chances. More specifically, Ousmane Dembélé and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia did. They attempted 13 shots worth 2.3 xG over the two legs and scored five times.

Kvaratshkelia is just relentless. Over the two legs, he led PSG in shots (seven), shots on goal (four), carries (63), duels (29) and duels won (17), and he was second in goals (two), progressive carries (15), total carry distance (420 meters) and even blocked passes (two) and interceptions (three). He attacks with menace, he drops deep and involves himself in buildup — he did so on the very goal he assisted, actually — and he’s a willing runner and defender.

Meanwhile, the duo of Aleksandar Pavlovic and Konrad Laimer was dynamite in the ground duels department last week (7-for-11 between them), but was toast in the second leg (2-for-11). PSG left back Nuno Mendes — 6-for-13 in the first leg, 8-for-10 in the second — was particularly sharp for all of his 85 minutes to such a degree that it was easy to forget that his battery mate, right back Achraf Hakimi, was out with a hamstring injury.

Once up two goals on aggregate, PSG appeared happy to allow Bayern to tilt the field and control the action. This approach backfired in the first leg, when a 5-2 PSG lead quickly turned to 5-4, but Bayern just couldn’t put together the types of finishing connections that they found last week in Paris. Instead, they attempted mostly low-percentage shots and hoped that PSG’s defense, playing far more without the ball than it typically does, would break down.

Bayern were on the wrong side of a couple of handball controversies — a bitter pill to swallow after the controversial handball penalty that went against them in Paris — but they just couldn’t regain their touch or break down PSG. Harry Kane scored in stoppage time, but PSG advanced.

Saka, Odegaard and forward Kai Havertz have long been important to Arsenal’s success, and that’s been no different in 2025-26. In fact, the Gunners have a perfect record this season when all three of them see the pitch.

Of course, it’s only happened three times. They beat Manchester United in August, Chelsea in January and Newcastle in April; those are the only times that there was no overlap between the lengthy absences for Havertz (who’s played only 835 minutes in all competitions) and Odegaard (1,805 minutes) and the nagging hamstring, hip and Achilles issues that have randomly sidelined Saka (3,002 minutes).

Laurens: Luis Enrique has built a monster team in PSG

Saka’s brilliance should probably go without saying at this point. Even this season, when he’s eighth on the team in minutes in all competitions, he’s still first in shots on goal (46), total ground duels (375) and fouls suffered (68, 22 in the attacking third), second in goals (11) and third in assists (six). It was fitting that he scored Tuesday’s finals-clinching goal considering what he’s meant to the club.

However, the other two have been almost as instrumental. Since his permanent arrival with the club in 2021-22, Odegaard is first on the team in progressive passes (1,625 in all competitions), second behind only Saka in assists (40) and chances created (80) and third in goals (40); he’s also second in ball recoveries (806) and first in recoveries in the attacking third (196). He is the team’s primary creative outlet and a willing presser.

Meanwhile, since his arrival in 2023, it’s Havertz who is second behind Saka in goals (34); he’s also first in high-quality shot attempts (0.2 xG or higher) and total aerial attempts. When he’s healthy, he provides the physical presence Odegaard gave Arsenal against Atletico, and despite mediocre to average finishing, he drives up both the team’s shot quality and shot quantity numbers (especially against higher-quality opponents).

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