Bill ConnellyMay 8, 2026, 06:45 AM ETCloseBill Connelly is a writer for ESPN. He covers college football, soccer and tennis. He has been at ESPN since 2019.Follow on XMultiple Authors
play1:15Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Game HighlightsMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Game Highlights
Kennesaw State Owls vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks: Full Highlights (1:13)Kennesaw State Owls vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks: Full Highlights (1:13)
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Game HighlightsMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Game Highlights
Of the nine FBS conferences last year, seven enjoyed one-score finishes in 31% to 41% of their conference games. That’s not bad, really — a couple of close games per week. Two conferences aimed higher, however, and only one plays weeknight games in October for our entertainment.
This conference lost two teams to the latest round of realignment — I personally wanted to see Louisiana Tech play 20 games this fall, but that’s just me — but the vibes remain the same: Anyone can win anything, and chances are the game you’re watching will go down to the wire. Hell yeah. Let’s preview Conference USA.
The continuity table looks at each team’s returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2025 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2026. (Why “approximate”? Because schools sometimes make it very difficult to ascertain who redshirted and who didn’t.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.
When Ryan Carty brought Delaware up to the FBS last season, he did it with minimal help from transfers. The Blue Hens ranked 19th nationally in returning production in 2025, and after a solid debut season, they’re back in the top 25 again. That’s solid continuity work right there. Missouri State, the other second-year program, didn’t fare quite as well. The Bears start Year 2 with a new head coach and a pretty new two-deep.
Last year’s top three all start out in the top four, which makes sense. Can Liberty resume its place among the conference’s best after an ill-fated (and downright strange) 2025 campaign? And if someone unexpected is going to pull a Kennesaw State and surge forward, who do you have? (I have my eye on Middle Tennessee State. No, seriously.)
Four teams start out within 0.7 projected wins of the top, and each of the other six has had a winning season fairly recently (though you have to go back to 2022 for MTSU). This should be fun.
Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under eight points.
Oct. 21: Liberty at Kennesaw State. Liberty’s schedule is pretty conducive to a rebound, but this Wednesday night game will be the Flames’ third road-trip tossup in four games following trips to Coastal Carolina and Delaware.
Nov. 21: Western Kentucky at Liberty. Liberty is a hurdle that a couple of really good WKU teams failed to clear. And losing this one, at this time of the season, might be awfully costly.
Nov. 28: Kennesaw State at Western Kentucky. Hinge team vs. hinge team, possibly with a title game berth on the line.
RB Kam Davis, Liberty. Another placeholder of sorts. Jamey Chadwell had to replace 1,300-yard rusher Evan Dickens and grabbed five potential options, including a former Army star in Kanye Udoh (who played at Arizona State last season) and, in Davis, a recent former top-100 prospect. Among his 65 touches were seven rushes of double-digit yardage and catches of 14 and 32 yards. He has excellent explosiveness potential.
CB Ryan Gadson, Florida International. Gadson was a full-service cornerback at Lafayette last season, not only picking off three passes and breaking up 16 more but also making three tackles for loss and 53 solo tackles. Wherever the play went, he was involved.
OL Amarii Atchison, Jax State. Jax State also added a good batch of linemen, grabbing a part-time starter from Nevada (Hadine Diaby), taking a speculative risk on a former blue-chipper (Pitt’s Caleb Holmes) and grabbing three juniors from the FCS, including Atchison, a 6-foot-8 All-Southern Conference selection.
OL Josiah Chenault, Sam Houston. Phil Longo needed a great transfer haul following 2025’s face-plant, and although he’ll need a lot of hits, he likely got at least one in Chenault, a first-team All-CUSA selection at Kennesaw State. Projecting how a guy translates from one conference or subdivision to another is tricky, but we know exactly how Chenault translates to CUSA life.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Game Highlights
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Game Highlights
2021: 9-5 record, 46th in SP+ 2022: 9-5 record, 68th in SP+ 2023: 8-5 record, 74th in SP+ 2024: 8-6 record, 78th in SP+ 2025: 9-4 record, 69th in SP+
The variance there is minimal; the quality is impressive. But in the past five seasons, WKU has reached the CUSA championship only twice and lost both times. It should be no surprise that the Hilltoppers begin the season atop the pile, however. They’re Most Likely To Be Solid, right?
Chadwell underwent offseason surgery and was back coaching in spring. He made some staff changes, with running backs coach Newland Isaac moving up to offensive coordinator and former Virginia Tech assistant Shawn Quinn now running the defense. Chadwell also signed a deep and exciting transfer class that should create competition throughout the two-deep.
Last year’s stumble was stark for a program that has spending advantages over most of its CUSA peers and had won eight games every year since 2018. But it’s not hard to see a solid rebound on the way, especially on offense. And after a marquee Week 1 trip to James Madison, the Flames are at least slight projected favorites in every remaining game.
If you’re a Jax State fan, and you bristled at me calling WKU “Most Likely To Be Solid,” I understand. Your Gamecocks haven’t really been around long enough to earn that honor, but in three FBS seasons, they’ve won nine games each time. They’ve made two straight CUSA championship games, too, winning one. We’ve seen a lot of impressive FBS jumps in recent years, and JSU’s has been as solid as anyone’s.
Last year was a bit of a roller coaster: JSU indeed clawed back to nine wins but slipped to 92nd in SP+ and played in nine one-score finishes, winning five. But considering the epic turnover that followed Rich Rodriguez’s departure to West Virginia, and considering Charles Kelly was in no way a continuity hire, simply playing solid ball was impressive.
Jax State brings far more knowns to the table than it did a year ago, which is exciting considering what the Gamecocks managed to accomplish in 2025. But the loss of Cook is a big one. You don’t want Creel carrying an even larger role in the run game.
In last year’s CUSA preview, I wrote that although I loved Kennesaw State’s hire of Jerry Mack — I really enjoyed the work he did as head coach at NC Central in the 2010s — an awful offense would likely keep him from achieving anything major in his first year with the Owls.
That’s a big if. A former blue-chipper, Collins transferred from LSU to Syracuse last season but was an abject disaster when he came in for the injured Steve Angeli. He’s a good runner, but he scrambled too much, and he finished the year averaging just 5.0 yards per dropback with six TDs to 10 interceptions. The Orange averaged just 12.0 points per game in his five starts. He has solid physical tools, but he has to become an actual QB.
No matter how much you feel you’ve prepared, it’s a bit of a blind leap going from the FCS to the FBS. You’re not going to know you’re ready until you jump.
Owens and Perry are both gone, as are quarterback Keyone Jenkins and all five starting linemen. Like Mack, Simmons’ second year will feature as many new players as his first.
The defense needed portal help. The Panthers have ranked 120th or worse in defensive SP+ for four of the past five years and allowed 34 or more points five times last season. The run front had to be totally rebuilt, and Simmons added five new defensive tackles and two linebackers. Only two of six regular defensive backs return, but sophomore safety Shamir Sterlin and corner Jai-Ayviauynn Celestine are keepers, and Lafayette transfer Ryan Gadson is an exciting addition at cornerback.
NMSU fans could have used the excitement: Attendance has fallen 36% since 2023’s Diego Pavia-led run to the CUSA championship game. The Aggies will host New Mexico in Week 5, which helps. Improvement on the field would probably be a good idea, too.
Last year was close to being quite a bit better. With a turnover-hunting defense, NMSU ranked a solid 64th in points allowed per drive and began the season 3-2. But the Aggies lost six of their final seven, a run that included four one-score losses.
Missouri State’s FBS debut was similar to Delaware’s on the field, with a five-game winning streak driving a 7-6 finish. But the offseason wasn’t nearly as kind to the Bears, as head coach Ryan Beard left for Coastal Carolina and took the customary truckload of players with him. I like the Casey Woods hire: He was excellent as SMU’s offensive coordinator, and he worked for the great Bill Clark at UAB. But his first starting lineup will be almost as new to Springfield as he is.
Slot receiver Jmariyae Robinson and running back Ramone Green Jr. are fun and semi-proven, but they’re the only primary skill corps returnees.
Woods didn’t load up on transfers in this area either, so new coordinator Mark Cala will need youngsters to fill in gaps. The offensive line will be almost completely new, with only one half-starter returning (guard Matthew Greene) and three transfers and a juco player coming in. Either Skyler Locklear (UTEP) or Henry Belin IV (Duke) will start at quarterback; both are seniors, and Locklear followed Cala from UTEP.